DFS Bobby Gomes Tournament Breakdown Week 6 2018
In tournaments we are ultimately trying to differentiate between “Good” and “Bad” Chalk. Chalk for those who don’t know is considered the favorite. In DFS the chalk would be considered the player or players who are going to receive the highest ownership on a given slate. In tournaments we are deciding if we should roster the chalk or fade it with a more high variance player in an effort to gain leverage over the field. Outside of game selection the best DFS players tend are usually the best at differentiating between good and bad Chalk.
Matt Ryan (6,800) (Projected Ownership 10%)
Jameis is always an extremely volatile roster which makes him an interesting fade qoption as this week’s Chalk at the quarterback position. Matt Ryan looks as though he will come in less owned and gets the same benefit in terms of game environment as Jameis. It’s important to note that the Bucs funnel to the pass so from a fantasy perspective Ryan should be the beneficiary of the lack of a quality running game a strong defense versus the run, a high implied team total, and a Bucs defense that lacks the ability to cover consistently downfield.
Baker Mayfield (5,500) (Projected Ownership 5%)
A strong case can also be made for Baker Mayfield as leverage off of Winston. Mayfield is at home and has a solid game environment versus the Chargers. The Browns implied team total has moved nearly a full point from the open, and the spread has shifted from the Chargers as one point road favorite to the Brown as a one point home favorite. At a 700$ Mayfield makes a lot of sense as a leverage play off Winston in tournaments.
Derek Carr (5,100) (Projected Ownership 5%)
Derek Carr seems like a quality leverage play off of Winston. Carr has a positive game script accompanied by a positive game environment in which both teams implied tam totals has gone up a half point since the open. Gruden while not the greatest coach at this point in his career is still capable as an offensive play caller.
T.J. Yeldon (6,400) (Projected Ownership 25%)
Yeldon has shown to be gamescript proof since taking over for the injured Leonard Fournette. Yeldon has a favorable game script in this matchup versus Dallas and should see the majority of usage in this Jacksonville backfield with Grant out. The Jags signed Jamaal Charles so I would pay attention to the newswires to see how much he may cut into Yeldon’s usage but i doubt it will be much. I would deem Yeldon good Chalk that can be rostered in Cash and Tournaments despite high ownership.
Jordan Howard (6,500) (Projected Ownership 5%)
Jordan Howard should go completely under owned in tournaments he has a positive game script as a three point road favorite versus the Dolphins. I think the Howard makes for a great correlation play with the bears defense. The problem with Howard is that if the game script goes away from the Bears he will likely not be utilized enough to make value.
Chris Carson (4,400) Projected Ownership 14%
Chris Carson Should be pretty Chalky but on a slate where we are scrummaging through the scrap heap for running back value Carson looks like the best available option. Carson has gone over 100 yards in his last two outings. The Seahawks coaching staff is committed to the run so the opportunity should be there regardless of game script.
Julio Jones (7,500) (Projected Ownership 25%)
I have managed to Fade Julio each of these first six weeks but i think this is the week i get back on the bandwagon. I was very close to rostering him last week but i ended up pivoting to odell which actually turned out to be the right move. This is the week I’m going to join the chase for Julio’s elusive touchdown. I don’t hate Julio but like most Atlanta fans i can’t stomach Sarkesians offensive play calling. The Bucs Defense funnels to the pass significantly and their secondary is awful with the game total as high as it is and with freeman out one would think Julio will finally find the endzone. For the First week all season Julio is Good Chalk.
Tyler Boyd (6,000) (Projected Ownership 15%)
Tyler Boyd is the Secondary option in the bengals passing game but he has seen as many targets as AJ Green and your going to get him at a 2k discount. The Bengals offense has been decimated by injury so the usage should be there for Boyd I like him in both cash and tournaments.
Amari Cooper (5,100) (Projected Ownership 5%)
Cooper is another high variance player that gets a good matchup with a positive gamescript and team total that will likely be low owned due to performance in consistency. Cooper has slate breaking potential in tournaments but he also has lineup breaking potential as well. If the Oakland wasn’t at home there would be absolutely no way i would consider rostering Cooper. With the team total going up however and the Raiders being at home i think a tournament flier on cooper makes a ton of sense in a plus matchup.
David Njoku (3,800) (Projected Ownership 5%)
Tight End looks to be the most fadeable position on this slate. There are two extremely fadeable options at the top of the board in Brate and Hooper. The problem is the value really isn’t they're to fade either of these guys. Njoku seen a pretty hefty workload these last two weeks with Baker Mayfield at the helm. It looks as tho the browns will be without Rashard Higgins as well. The problem is the Chargers have been great against the tight end position.
Jordan Reed (5,200) (Projected Ownership 5%)
I actually think the Washington Carolina game stack is extremely sneaky in tournaments. Both teams have question marks in defending both the pass as well as the run. There isn’t a washington receiver on the board that does not have a q tag. If one or two were to sit you have to immediately like both Reed and Chris Thompson.
Trey Burton (4,500) (Projected Ownership 5%)
Love trey Burton in this matchup the issue for me here is in tournaments i like to run it back and they're really isn’t anyone on the miami Dolphins roster that I feel comfortable doing that with. The total in this game has dipped two points so maybe a gamestack is out of the question, and you can just roster him as a stand alone play.
Minnesota Vikings (3,800) (Projected Ownership 5%)
The Vikes should make for a strong cash and tournament play with a spread of ten and a rookie quarterback coming in to town. I doubt the Vikings will drop the ball again like they did in this spot versus the Bills. Pay up for strong defenses in tournaments they're is merit too it.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3,600) (Projected Ownership 1%)
The Jags can easily make the Cowboys a one dimensional team forcing dak to throw. If that the case this game will probably be wrapped up by the end of the third quarter. Correlate with Yeldon.
Chicago Bears (3,300) (Projected Ownership 10%)
The Monster of the Midway are back! Eat the chalk and correlate with Howard to differentiate yourself in tournaments. There is a chance Brock Osweiler starts this game so that's just another plus for a defense that has been lights out to start the year.