DFS Pivot Plays week 13 2018

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.

Quarterback


Chalk

Cam Newton $6,600 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Newton has been very consistent this season and efficient. He has multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. When you get a quarterback like him and you put him up against a defense like the Bucs, it just makes total sense as to why he will be popular. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass. This unit has allowed 3,207 passing yards (6th most) and 26 passing touchdowns (most in the NFL) to opposing signal callers, while yielding the third most DKFP per game. They are also allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the position, which is good news for Newton who averages 7.7 rush attempts per game. The tosses for two touchdowns and scored 21.18 DKFP in their last meeting, yet only threw the ball 25 times. This game has a high total and both offenses should score plenty of points. He will be popular, but rightfully so.

Pivot

Aaron Rodgers $6,200 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Rodgers was not sharp in his last game, but in his defense, he drew a tough road matchup against the Vikings. This week, however, he draws a better matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals actually rank ninth in DVOA against the pass and have been able to limit the damage this season against opposing signal callers, but over the last three weeks that have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each game. Throughout that stretch quarterbacks have averaged 19.1 fantasy point per game against this defense. Despite some ups and downs this season, Rodgers remains one of the better quarterbacks in the league and the Packers need to win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive, so I expect him to come out and play well. He also makes for a great leverage play in tournaments, as I expect Aaron Jones to be popular this weekend.

Running Backs


Chalk

Spencer Ware $4,000 vs. Oakland Raiders

On Friday a video leaked of Kareem Hunt in an altercation with a female. He was placed on the Commissioner Exempt List and shortly after the Chiefs decided to cut him. This means that Ware will move into the starting lineup this week against the Raiders and an extremely low price. The Raiders are 23rd in DVOA against opposing running backs. This unit is allowing 130 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, 5.1 yards per carry, and have surrendered 11 total touchdowns to the position, while yielding 27.6 DKFP per game. The Raiders are heavy favorites in this one, so this is a favorable game script for Ware and they have a healthy implied team total, so this offense should produce plenty of fantasy goodness. When you consider his price, expected usage, and situation this weekend, it makes complete sense that he will be chalky. Ware is essentially a free square.

Pivot

Lamar Miller $4,600 vs. Cleveland Browns

If you tuned into the podcast, have seen my rankings for the week, or caught me on Sirius XM this week, then you already know I love Miller and to be honest I was expecting him to be a bit more popular this week, but based on the ownership projections, some of the other value that has opened up, and not hearing much buzz about him throughout the industry, I think he may go a tad under the radar. This is a spot that Miller should thrive in, the Browns They have surrendered 1,204 rushing yards (6th most), 12 rushing touchdowns (3rd most), and 616 receiving yards (5th most) to the position, while also yielding 30.1 DKFP per game, which is good for fifth most in the league. Miller is quietly having a solid season, but has been much better in recent games, averaging 18.2 touches, 111 total yards, and 17.9 DKFP points per game during his last five games. During that stretch he has 100 or more rushing yards in three games and has scored three touchdowns, while averaging a healthy 6.3 YPC. Like I mentioned above, Ware is basically a free square, but Miller is not that far behind and if you are trying to get away from a chalky Ware, Miller makes sense. Playing both could also create a unique lineup construction.

Wide Receivers


Chalk

Adam Thielen $8,000 vs. New England Patriots

Full disclosure, Thielen is good chalk and chalk I am willing to eat. He is playing at a very high level, having himself a career season. So far, he has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in all but two games and has scored a touchdown in all but three games. The usage is through the roof as he has the second most targets of any player in the league (124), which is good for 28 percent of the market share in Minnesota, and also sees 29.7 percent of the team’s red zone targets. The matchup could be better, as he will draw coverage from Jason McCourty who is a solid defender, but Thielen has shown multiple times he can overcome a below average matchup and light up the scoreboard. Plus, the Patriots do rank 24th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. When you consider his consistent usage and efficiency, it is tough not to like him every week. He is projected to be very popular, and right fully so. After all, he is the perfect combination of a high floor and high ceiling.

Pivot

Davante Adams $7,900 vs. Arizona Cardinals

With all of the attention on Aaron Jones in the Packers offense this weekend, Adams could go overlooked. Adams has been as consistent as they come for the majority of the season, finding the pay dirt in all but three games, with a couple of multiple touchdown games. While the Cardinals have done a decent job at limiting the damage by opposing wide outs over the course of the season, they have been a bit more susceptible in recent weeks, allowing two or more receiving touchdowns to the position in three of their last five games. He is expected to draw coverage from David Amerson, who grades out below average on PFF, a matchup that Adams has a 24 percent advantage rating in. As I stated above, it will be hard for me to get off of Thielen this weekend, but I do think Adams makes for a strong pivot and I am strongly considering on rostering both.

Tight Ends


Chalk

Eric Ebron $4,200 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jack Doyle was placed on the injured reserve, which bumps Ebron up quite a bit. Although Ebron has been efficient with and without Doyle this season, he sees far more snaps without Doyle on the field. Contrary to what some may think, this is actually a favorable matchup for Ebron. The Jaguars rank 17th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and they have allowed seven receiving touchdowns to the position, which is tied for second most. So far this season, Ebron has three multiple touchdown games and has found the end zone in all but three contests. He should see plenty of time on the field this weekend and remains a red zone threat. At this price, it comes to no surprise that he will be popular.

Pivot

Greg Olsen $4,100 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Olsen showed us several weeks ago against this same defense that he can still have productive games. In Week 9 against the Bucs, he caught all six of his targets for 76 yards and a touchdown, which was good for 19.6 DKFP. This is a really good matchup and it should be a good game environment as well. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends. This unit has allowed 61 receptions (tied 7th), 827 receiving yards (most in NFL), and five touchdowns (tied 4th most), while giving up the fourth most DKFP per game. The ceiling and consistent production may not be what it used to be for Olsen, but this week, he does find himself in a great spot and is not projected to be that highly owned. If you want to move off of the chalky Ebron, Olsen is someone to consider.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal