Vegas vs Fantasy Week 7 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal
It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from the defenses. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines and point out which offenses you should be targeting and which defenses are in good situations. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.
Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Patriots vs. Falcons 54 56.5 2.5
49ers vs. Cowboys 47 48.5 1.5

We have a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl on Sunday night and to no surprise this game has the highest over/under of the slate. The Patriots have been abysmal defensively, allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the third most fantasy points per game to running backs, fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers, and third most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This puts Atlanta’s offense in a very good spot, especially since they are coming out of a bye. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman should all be productive in this matchup and make for viable options in both season long and DFS. On the other side, Tom Brady and company are averaging the most yards and fifth most points per game. This is an offense that is explosive and very deep, and they also get a favorable matchup against a subpar Falcons defense. This is a great game stack opportunity as both offenses are in really good situations and they are both expected to score upwards of three touchdowns.

The Cowboys and 49ers game is very interesting this week, because it can go many ways. The 49ers are starting C.J. Beathard who displayed some upside and did a solid job in last week’s game as he stepped into the game for the struggling Brian Hoyer. Beathard completed 19-of-36 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys have been below average against the pass, allowing 250.4 passing yards per game and have given up 11 passing touchdowns. They have also been generous to running backs and wide receivers. This team is expected to be chasing points, so targeting the quarterback and pass catchers makes a lot of sense. The Cowboys also have a great matchup as the Niners have been below average defensively. They have also been generous to quarterbacks and running backs, making Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott very strong plays this week. Dez Bryant is also in a very good spot in this contest. Both offenses are firmly in play, while the defenses are not that enticing.

You will not see the usual section of highest spread below because this game also has the highest spread of the week. Vegas is apparently expecting a lot of close games this week, as the 49ers are the biggest dogs this week at six points. This is even more of a reason to like the quarterback and their pass catchers.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.
Game Open O/U Live O/U Move
Vikings vs. Ravens 39.5 38.5 -1

This is one of those games where there is not a lot of appealing fantasy options. We have two good defenses playing against each other and offenses that are not all that enticing, especially with Stefon Diggs and Sam Bradford out of this game. The Ravens are vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position and they have allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which is second most by any team. This makes Kyle Rudolph a solid streaming play this weekend and a high-upside DFS play. Aside from that, both defenses are in play and not much else in this matchup is appealing.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal