Vegas vs Fantasy Week 4 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from the defenses. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines and point out which offenses you should be targeting and which defenses are in good situations. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Dolphins vs. Saints 50 50.5 0.5
Chiefs vs. Redskins 49.5 49.5 0

T+he Saints and Dolphins game has the highest over/under of the week and this makes a lot of sense. Neither of these defenses are all that great. In fact, the Saints allow the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while yielding the most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. This is a smash spot for the Dolphins offense and despite struggling last week against a weak Jets defense, they should be productive this weekend. Jay Cutler makes for a nice streaming play this week and in two quarterback league, he should be deployed. Jay Ajayi, Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker should all take advantage of their matchups as well. Lastly, Kenny Still can be considered a high-risk/high-reward players this week against his former team. The Saints offense is also in a favorable matchup. Drew Brees was able to dissect the Panthers last week and could be in for another efficient day. One guy that peaks my interest is Coby Fleener as the Dolphins have struggled against tight ends this season. They are also generous to running backs, so Mark Ingram could finally have himself a day. All-in-all, both of these offenses are firmly in play this week.

I am not as optimistic as Vegas is in this Monday night game as I could see this being under the implied total. The Chiefs play much better defense at home than they do on the road and this Washington offense has been shaky to start the season, so I can see them struggling in this hostile environment. There is a reason why the Redskins only have a 21.25 implied team total this week. On the other hand, I do like this Chiefs offense quite a bit, starting with Kareem Hunt who is shaping up to be a star in this league. Hunt leads all running backs with 401 rushing yards and has scored six total touchdowns this season. Tyreek Hill is also off to a good season, with 253 receiving yards (fifth in the league) and two touchdowns. The Chiefs are seven point favorites, so we could see another heavy dose of Hunt this week. This offense should continue rolling this week and the usual suspects are all in play.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Game Open O/U Live O/U Move
Jets vs. Jaguars 39.5 39.5 -1

This comes to no surprise as the Jets and Jaguars both lack star power. The Jets have not done much offensively this season, however, the Jags have been hit or miss. This could be a week where Jacksonville takes advantage of the matchup, but the inconsistency along with the Vegas numbers makes them truly hard to trust. The one player that should be considered is Leonard Fournette who has 20+ touches in two of the first three games this season and has scored a touchdown in each of those contests. The Jets are giving up 98.7 rushing yards per game and have surrendered three rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, so Fournette should be able to find success in this spot. Aside from that, the Jaguars defense is an enticing streaming play against a vanilla Jets offense.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Teams Spread
Seahawks -13
Colts 13

When the Seahawks are nearly two touchdown favorites, it does not seem right, considering how poor they have played thus far this season. Then again, they face off against a bad Colts team. From the Indianapolis side, T.Y. Hilton is coming off of a big game, but has a far tougher matchup this week. That being said, this offense will be chasing points and he should see plenty of targets, therefore he can be considered, but fantasy owners should temper their expectations. As far as the Seahawks are concerned, Russell Wilson is coming off his best game of the season and could continue rolling this week against a bad Colts defense. Jimmy Graham is also coming off of a nice performance and has a favorable matchup, so I expect him to continue where he left off last week. The one player that can truly shine this week is Chris Carson. The Seahawks have shown that they trust the young back and being that they are heavy favorites, he should see 20+ touches in this matchup. This offense and defense make for fine pays this week.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal