Super Bowl LIII Prop Betting Guide
It is estimated that 23 million Americans will placed $6 billion on Super Bowl bets this year. The Dallas Cowboys, the most valuable franchise in the National Football League, are worth $4.6 billion.
More money will be wagered in one day than the richest franchise in the league. Let that sink in.
When the pioneer that is New Jersey legalized sports betting this year, it spread like wild fire. Sports betting and content have never been more prevalent than this year.
Football fans, Fantasy fans, and average Americans simply love the idea of turning a dollar into many more.
There are countless sportsbooks who will be offering literally thousands of prop bets this weekend. They range from standard score and spread bets to 50/50 coin flips and ridiculous long shots, such as the ever-hilarious bet that a fan will run onto the field.
You can even parlay the outcome of the game with the future weather prediction determined the following day by a fat, little ground hog.
Game props, player props, and bizarre long shot props will be one of the topics of conversation at most water coolers on Super Bowl Monday. Get in the action so you will have something to talk with your coworkers about while (likely) nursing a hangover and recovering from a food coma.
Here are just a few of the thousands of props I will personally be betting this weekend.
Julian Edelman over receptions 7.5, +130
In the divisional round, the book was ultra-conservative and gave Edelman a 4.5 reception line. I joined the infamous Scott Fish on his Sirius XM Fantasy show the Saturday before the game and urged listeners to exploit this line. I suggested even going bold, right here on this site, and taking him for nine receptions. Bold call, lucky call, whatever it may be, Edelman hit that line.
The books have adjusted and you will need eight receptions from Edelman to cash on this bet. I am will ante up on him yet again. In ten playoff games over the past six years, Edelman averages eight receptions. Though it is closer, the book is giving us his floor again.
Risk(10 receptions, +254): 2.5 units to win 8.85 units
Both Quarterbacks over 299.5 passing yards, +275
This game opened as a Pick 'Em and has since moved to the Patriots laying 2.5 points. The line opened up at 58.6 and shifted down two points to 56.5.
We know what this means. We are looking at a high-scoring shootout. Even though the majority of the public money is coming in on the under, we could still get a 50+ point game.
Tom Brady has quite the Super Bowl sample size with eight career appearances. He has gone over 300 yards in half of those games, three of which game consecutively in his past three appearances. The old G.O.A.T. has shown no signs of slowing down and is a near-lock to throw for at least 300 yards.
Jared Goff is the wild card on this prop, and both quarterbacks need to reach the threshold. During the 2018 season, Goff went over 300 yards in eight games. His playoff track record, however, sees a slightly different game plan where he isn't slinging the ball like we want to for this bet. In three career playoff games, he has failed to his the 300 yard mark.
He's come pretty close though. Just two weeks ago, against the New Orleans Saints, Goff threw for 297 yards.
I am taking this bet with a reasonable level of confidence. To beat the Patriots you have to score a lot of points. He is going to have to throw the ball. Four weeks ago, we may have said this is a team that is going to ride Todd Gurley. The Rams' offense has looked different over the past month.
It is going to be on their quarterback to be their play maker.
Risk: 5 units to win 18.75 units
Either quarterback to throw for more yards than Nick Foles last year (373), +200
I am doubling down on the previous bet. Give me Tom Brady here to hit this line.
Risk: 5 units to win 15 units
Gerald Everett to score a touchdown, +340
You can lay a lot to win a little to bet one of the more obvious and likely players to score a touchdown, or you can scroll down the player prop list and stop right at Everett.
We know by now how the Patriots play defense. They take away your best weapons. It is more than feasible that, in a red zone situation, the Patriots bottle up the run game and blanket the likes of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. They will force Goff to look for options outside of his top receiving threats.
At 6'3, Everett is a big target who could be an afterthought for this defense. If Goff gets him one in the end zone, this is a really good payout.
Risk: 2.5 units to win 11 units. Feeling crazy? Two Everett touchdowns pays out +1400
Todd Gurley over 16.5 rush attempts, +150
During the regular season, this line would have crushed any sportsbook. In the first 13 weeks of the regular season, Gurley carried the ball more than 16 times in eight games.
Then, he banged his knee up and his usage obviously took a dip. Somehow, C.J. Anderson came exploding onto the scene, looking like the second coming of Maurice Jones-Drew. Sean McVay was forced to field questions as to why arguable the top running back in football was delegated to the sideline as a spectator after carrying the ball five times in the divisional round.
McVay isn't an idiot. He knows who his weapons are. Why roll out an 80% Gurley in the playoffs when you can have a 100% Gurley for the big game?
Anderson props are going to be popular. As weird this sounds, the Gurley prop is a bit contrarian here. This is a situation where being contrarian feels like the smart move.
Risk: 5 units to win 2.2 units. Ante up: 23 carries, +275. 25 carries, +470
Greg Zuerlein field goal over 55 yards, +500
They don't call him "Greg the Leg" for nothing. A kicker's friend is the controlled environment of a dome. His best friend is that environment in neutral territory. His career-long is 61, which he has hit twice. His season-long has been 56 yards in three separate season.
The Rams are the only team Zuerlein has ever known. In his career with them, he hits field goals over 50 yards 58.3% of the time.
At +500, I'll take that bet.
Risk: 1 unit to win 5 units
Either McCourty Twin INT, +350
Simply put, you are getting two bets for one here, with a really fun pay out.
Risk: 1 unit to win 3.5 units.
Here is where we start having a little bit of fun. No reason to share risk here, these are basically low stakes long shots.
Horse Collar Tackle, +700
Reputations are a funny thing in football, especially when they have validity. Here's looking at you, Suh.
A Flea Flicker is attempted, +210
The oldest trick-play in the book. Both teams have it in their arsenal.
PAT or FG hits either upright, +567
Two of the best legs in the game will square off on Sunday. It doesn't matter how big or small the game is, the yips can anyone. We witnessed a double-doink in the playoffs this year. No one is immune to pressure. All the football has to do is graze one of the posts and you're cashing.
Game goes to OT, +850
This prop was offered during every game of the playoffs at +1200. On championship weekend, both games went to over time, so naturally the odds have dipped a little.
I love this bet, because this is it folks, and who doesn't want it to last as long as possible?
Philly Special, II - Either quarterback catches a touchdown, +2000
This is so beyond unlikely. I love it. It would be the ultimate troll job by either coach to run this play.
If McVay calls a pass play to Goff in the end zone, we could see the stone-faced man that is Belichick crack.
If Belichick calls this play, we could see the stone-faced man smile in a manner we have never seen.
It doesn't get much more fun than this bet.
Where do they come up with these props?
MVP thanks the fans first, +950
If Goff wins Super Bowl MVP, you can book this one.
MVP thanks the coach first, +1000
Brady will have a twinkle in his eye when he looks at the man he's been doing this with for the past 19 years.
Romo or Nantz say "Hotlanta", +300
We know there is no shot Jim says Hotlanta, but Tony is pretty hip. He could have this one just waiting in his pocket for a big play.
Neither Romo or Nantz say "Underdog", +400
With betting being all the rage, they could make an effort to ask their commentators to be mindful of it and stay away from mentioning gambling phrases. We all know the National Football League pretends to hate gambling.
Fan runs on the field, +700
This never happens during the Super Bowl and yet I bet it every year. Atlanta is a wild city, maybe we get lucky this year.
Mick Jagger makes an appearance during half time, +450
Has there been a more controversial half time performer in recent memory? Maroon 5 will be pulling out all the stops, and you can't sing a song called "Moves like Jagger" without bringing out the man himself.
Trump's approval rating is higher on 2/4/19 than the yardage of the longest field goal, +135
Seriously, where do they come up with these props?
Head over to your favorite book and go get a piece of the $6 billion that will be wagered on the Super Bowl. Good luck!