SBLV – Thrive Fantasy Player Props DFS by Jen Ryan

Published Date: 2/6/2021

This is it! Our last chance to bet player props for football. You know we love our player props at FootballDiehards.com, and we’ve teamed up with Thrive Fantasy for this year’s big game. Make sure you click our link to enter their freeroll and use promo code “DIEHARDS” for a deposit match.

Our buddies at ThriveFantasy.com have come up with a unique Super Bowl DFS contest that uses prop bets to create your DFS lineups!

On top of this they match 100% of your deposit up to $50 AND with a $25 minimum deposit you will receive FREE a $50 entry into our 30k guaranteed contest! (new users only)

https://www.thrivefantasy.com/&promo=DIEHARDS

Emil and I will be having a live Prop Til You Drop show live at 1 pm ET Sunday going over the props for the Thrive Fantasy DFS contest!

At (YouTube.com/footballdiehards/)


Let’s get right into it and take a look at each of the props Thrive Fantasy is offering, along with their point scoring system. This is a contest truly unique like no other, and I’m super excited to take a crack at it. Props that are in bold and italics are those that I am playing in this contest, for a 945 maximum point total. My position is the over on all of props I’m taking, because we hate unders.


Patrick Mahomes 320.5 Total Yards (Pass + Rush Yards) – Over = 95 points / Under = 105 points
Surprise, surprise, but give me the over here. How nice of Thrive Fantasy to make this prop including rushing yards, too! Mahomes has not achieved this feet just five times during the regular season, and failed to go over 320.5 total yards against the Cleveland Browns in their first playoff game. Just two weeks ago against the Bills, Mahomes hit this prop through the air alone.

I am expecting a lot of points in this game, and therefore expecting the quarterback to put up over 320.5 total yards.


Patrick Mahomes 27.5 Total Completions – Over = 110 points / Under = 90 points
The kid is efficient, we know that, but I am staying away from this prop. It is a sharp line, with 27.5 completions being right around Mahomes’ average. With my hell bent approach on this being a high-scoring game, I do see Mahomes hitting this prop, it just isn’t one that I am playing in this contest.


Darrel Williams 48.5 Total Rush Yards – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 points
It was that other D. Williams who shined for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year. It does make you wonder if we could see the running back thrive, again, and at 48.5 rushing yards it is incredibly tempting. That Buccaneers defensive front, along with some potential slipper conditions just has me looking elsewhere with Williams. By elsewhere, I do mean a very specific place…


Darrel Williams 0.5 Total Rush Touchdowns – Over = 110 points / Under = 90 points
…that specific place being the end zone. This is a tough one, but with the over getting a slightly higher point total to my side, being a dog bet, I am taking it. Touchdowns are bets that we talk about often on our prop show because of the nature of the bet – you are betting a single outcome. Williams has just four red zone carries this season, to Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 28 carries.

Williams has been the Chiefs leading rusher in the post season with 130 yards and a score on 26 carries through two games. We will see who gets the call at the goal line, and cringe if it’s Mahomes.


Travis Kelce 95.5 Total Receiving Yards – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 points
Kelce’s resume speaks for itself. He has been beyond incredible, and consistently so. In his two playoff games this year, he’s put up 227 (!) receiving yards. Excluding the playoffs, he has hit this over in six of his eight games dating back to Week 8. This man is a wide receiving with a tight end tag. It would be shocking, and I would argue that the Chiefs lose this game, if Kelce doesn’t hit 100 receiving yards. He is that much of a factor.


Travis Kelce 7.5 Total Receptions – Over = 85 points / Under = 115 points
Kelce won’t get to the century mark without catching the ball. And catching it a lot. He has 21 post season receptions, and using that same Week 8 benchmark Kelce has failed to reach eight catches just once since that span. Book it as a lock.


Tyreek Hill 85.5 Total Receiving Yards – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 points
Due to my clear infatuation with Kelce’s receiving ability, I am avoiding Tyreek Hill’s receiving prop. Of course he can hit this in the first quarter, his breakaway/big play ability is that much of a threat. However, I am far more confident in the other prop Thrive Fantasy is offering for Hill.


Tyreek Hill 0.5 Total Receiving Touchdowns – Over = 90 points / Under = 110 points
That would be Hill to score. Again, just one outcome, with tremendous upside for player who has failed to score this post season. Give me that regression.


Mecole Hardman 33.5 Total Receiving Yards – Over = 95 points / Under = 105 points
I have this prop as one of my two ICE props. That’s right, Thrive Fantasy is offering “In Case of Emergency”. If, for some reason, any player associated with any of the other props I’ve played is unable to suit up for any reason, this Hardman prop will be slid right in. The low line at 33.5 made it a no brainer as an ICE prop.


Harrison Butker 7.5 Total Points – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 Points
The kickers on both of these teams have struggled mightily. Stay far away from this prop (or take the under) – do not trust someone who has one job that they can’t perform well with your money.


Tom Brady 284.5 Total Passing Yards – Over = 100 Points / Under = 100 Points
This is a hard prop to pass on (get it?), with Brady liable to go crazy in his 10th Super Bowl appearance and throw the ball for 400 yards. If Playoff Lenny comes out here looking like the next coming of Emmitt Smith (sorry, I had to), then we have to knock Brady’s passing expectations down a bit.


Tom Brady 2.5 Total (Passing Touchdowns + Interceptions) – Over = 80 points / Under = 120 points
That doesn’t mean I don’t expect Tompa Bay to throw a few touchdowns. He loves the Mike Evans look on the goal line. This prop is very interesting because it includes interceptions. Let’s say Brady gets picked early. That is what I am looking for, because we know the touchdowns will be there.


Leonard Fournette 74.5 Total Yards (Rush + Receiving) – Over = 105 Points / Under = 95 points
Ah, playoff Lenny. This is a gift with the all-purpose yards, but 74.5 is a bit rich for my blood. It isn’t out of the questions, I just like his chances to score far more than I like this prop.


Leonard Fournette 0.5 Total Touchdowns (Rush + Receiving) – Over = 85 points / Under = 115 points
Fournette to score, either on the ground or through the air. How could you not take this prop?


Mike Evans 63.5 Total Receiving Yards – Over = 90 points / Under = 110 points
Evans is an absolute specimen and has been since he entered the league. He is playing in the biggest game of his life with the best quarterback (probably) to ever play the game. It is hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t a major factor in this game. Again, I am expecting a lot of points, and for Evans to be a contributor to his team getting those points.


Mike Evans 5.5 Total Receptions – Over = 110 points / Under = 90 points
He doesn’t need six catches to hit that yardage prop or to score for that matter. If this was 4.5 total receptions I would have taken it in a heartbeat, but Thrive Fantasy is too sharp for that!


Chris Godwin 75.5 Total Receiving Yards – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 points
Godwin is likely to hit this, and I think you could do worse here, I just personally have all of my passing and receiving marbles in the Chiefs basket. I am more confident in those receivers racking up a ton of yards than I am the Buccaneers’ receivers.


Chris Godwin 0.5 Total Receiving Touchdowns – Over = 100 Points / Under = 100 points
I still love Godwin’s chances of scoring, and this ties in with my Brady prop and Fournette prop. This would be two of the three that Brady needs, and we all know Evans is good for one.


Ronald Jones II 49.5 Total Rush Yards – Over = 100 points / Under = 100 points
Another ICE prop, but not one I am taking unless there is an emergency. I like the logic of targeting a low line for my emergency, because if there is an emergency then I trust the process of aiming low rather than shooting high. Fournette, of course, complicates this however this bet is essentially handcuffing Fournette.


Ryan Succop 5.5 Total Points – Over = 90 points / Under = 110 points
No! Don’t do it! Stay away from the kickers in this game!

Make sure you click the link above and head over to Thrive Fantasy to take advantage of their generous offer for our Diehards subscribers. We’ll see you tomorrow at 1PM for Prop Til You Drop!