Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 8

By Jen Ryan

I am not very good at lying, or dancing around things, and never have been. My mouth got me into trouble often enough when I was a bratty little kid, and most of that trouble came because I simply have no filter. I am just not good at sugar coating, or being halfway honest about things. I have had a terrible daily fantasy season so far and, up until last week, was way in the red. I am talking fire engine red. I try to stick to my research and stick to my process and grind out daily fantasy each week with the confidence that, eventually, things will click. Click they did last weekend, and I took 1st in an 85 person tournament, nine person tournament, seven person tournament, and cashed in all of my 50/50s. I did not win any life changing money but I am back in the green.

Going into the halfway mark of the daily fantasy season, I have gotten my bank roll back. I will continue to stick to my research and process and hope that the cards fall in the way as such that my bank roll will continue to grow and that I will profit when the season is all said and done.

Now that I’ve come back above water and took a break from large GPPs, it is time for me to treat myself once again. I will take my chances on the Millionaire Maker again this week, but there is another prize I have my eye on. That prize is the NFL #1M King of the Beach (Finals in the Bahamas) Qualifier. If there is one thing I love as much as football, it is the Caribbean. Here are a few of the players I will be considering to help me win that coveted ticket down to the Bahamas for a chance to compete for a $100,000 top prize.

QB: Tom Brady ($7,600), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,200)
Brady is the top-priced quarterback on this slate. I rarely pay top dollar for a quarterback but I have a sneaky suspicion that Brady will be uncharacteristically low owned this weekend. The Bills are a tough matchup, especially at home. Their defense has been stout and have allowed quarterbacks to throw four touchdowns this season, which is crazy when you think about it. This is exactly why I will throw Brady in one of my entries, because I cannot imagine more than 10% of the pool doing the same. My pivot from Brady is the less expensive Fitzpatrick, who not only has a fantastic matchup but could also be low owned due to his affinity for turnovers.

RB: Spencer Ware ($6,800) Jacquizz Rodgers ($5,800), Frank Gore ($4,700), Latavius Murray ($4,500)
I have two chalk plays here in Ware and Rodgers and two plays that are more on the contrarian side of things. I will probably split the difference and roll out a combination of Ware/Gore, Ware/Murray, Rodgers/Gore, Rodgers/Murray, and throw the odd man out in my flex, if the finances permit. Ware and Rodgers are no brainers due to their matchups and opportunity, but Murray seems to be a curiously forgotten running back that flirts with bell cow carries and faces the 22nd-ranked Tampa Bay run defense. Gore, for his part, has spent this season quietly building a high floor and has been the mark of consistency.

WR: Mike Evans ($8,100), Jordy Nelson ($7,200), Doug Baldwin ($6,900), Donte Moncrief ($5,400), Quincy Enunwa ($4,800)
Evans could shatter the single-game target record when Tampa Bay hosts Oakland this weekend. Despite already having his bye week, Evans’ 74 targets are one less than T.Y. Hilton’s league-high 75. His matchup against the 30th-ranked Raiders’ pass defense could see his ownership over 70%. It will be hard not to build a lineup without him, and his high cost will force me to consider Moncrief and Enunwa at their prices. I love the matchup for both, but will probably lean Enunwa over Moncrief due to my hesitancy to roll with a player coming off of a multi-week injury. Baldwin feels a bit underpriced playing at the Super Dome, which has become the friendliest environment for wide receivers to go off in. Nelson is the WR9 in salary on this slate and, I believe, could have the lowest ownership of all the receivers I mentioned. He is coming off of a game where everyone one in the Packers’ offense ate a huge piece of Aaron Rodgers’ historical by except him. Not only am I looking for a bounce back, but I am looking for myself and less than a 10th of the field to reap the benefits of his bounce back.

TE: Jimmy Graham ($6,100), Gary Barnidge ($3,300), C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2,800), Jacob Tamme ($2,800)
Very few people will be able to resist Jimmy Graham’s first trip back to the Super Dome and I would bet money that he is the highest owned tight end not just of this slate, but of the entire weekend. I think Fiedorowicz and his blatantly obvious underpriced cost will be a close second. Graham does not require much analysis from me, but Fiedorowicz is in a great spot not only as Houston’s recent target monster but also his matchup against the Lions, who tight ends have had no problem scoring on. The chalkiness of these two will allow a player like Barnidge, who has at least 57 receiving yards in five straight games, to slip through the cracks. I especially like Barnidge due to his value being elevated with the return of Josh McCown. When it comes to Tamme, his 11 red zone targets lead all tight ends and he will be at home in a high-scoring affair with the Green Bay Packers. He could be the contrarian tight end to make or break me in this tournament.

DST: Broncos ($3,700), Patriots ($3,300)
I do not put much analysis into my decisions on defense/special teams. The position is cheaply priced for a reason, that reason being it is the least-focused upon (for me at least). The Broncos are the top-priced defense and I do like the idea of using them this weekend because I will be fading all San Diego Chargers. I believe the Jets and the Texans will be the other two defenses the field will be on, and the Patriots provide some sneaky upside against the Buffalo Bills, who’s entire offense will essentially be Tyrod Taylor.

I will still be playing small slates and cash games this week. They are the most effective way to continue to build my bank roll, but now that I have put myself back on the plus side it is time for me to roll the dice. Each week, I see a different person get tweeted: “Congrats on taking down the qualifier! See you in the Bahamas!” It is my turn this week, and I will work very hard before Sunday to hammer out the perfect lineup to get me and my toes down into the sand. Good luck this week, and feel free to come play with me on DraftKings: JerseyJen22.