IDP STUDS AND DUDS: Week 16 IDP Start/Sit

In the majority of IDP leagues, we've reached the end of the road. The final showdown. The last hurrah of 2018.

It's Championship Week.

Only teams are still playing for something that doesn't involve the word "consolation." At the end of this week, one team will stand above all others in their league as champion. Trophies will be awarded. Prize money will be distributed. There will be fantasy glory and smack talk and all the things that make life worth living.

There may even be dancing.

That never gets old…or good.

In this one-week, winner-takes-all scenario, there are those who believe fervently that matchups reign supreme. There are those who are equally dedicated to the notion that you "always start your studs," that you dance with the IDPs who got you this far.

Both are correct—to an extent.

Do your research. Collect the opinions and judgments from a number of pundits—guys and gals you trust have done the legwork and crunched the numbers. And then make the call you think gives your team the best chance to win.

Whether it's the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat, the emotions that come with the culmination of this week's action in your league will be yours to bear.

And regardless of what happens, don't let it spoil the week that comes after. Spend time with the people you love. Have a few laughs. And a have a joyous and safe holiday season.

Here we go!

Each week during the 2018 season, I’ll point out some Individual Defensive Players who could be set to exceed expectations this week (Studs), as well as some that for whatever reason are riskier plays than normal (Duds).

This isn’t necessarily to say that every “Stud” is a must-start (it depends on your other options) or that every “Dud” should be glued to your bench (just that the odds of a letdown week are greater than usual).

Numbers in parentheses denote ranking in fantasy points allowed to that position in 2018 in Fantasy Sharks Default IDP Scoring.
 

IDP STUD OF THE WEEK

Danny Trevathan – ILB, Chicago Bears (at SFO) (4)

As JJ Stankevitz reported for NBC Sports Chicago, Trevathan gave the Bears a pep talk before their division-clinching win over the Green Bay Packers last week. “It was just me feeling like this is our opportunity to showcase we’re for real on this defense,” Trevathan said. “We can put away games. And I wanted them to know that this is a statement game. This could be legendary, man. Let’s keep writing our story. We’re writing a story right now that’s not done yet, and let’s never let it be done until we feel like it’s done.”

For most of this season, Trevathan has taken a back seat to rookie Roquan Smith, and the veteran's been quiet each of the past two weeks. However, there's a good chance Trevathan will get the eight stops Sunday he needs to top 100 for the season Sunday against a 49ers team that ranks fourth in fantasy points given up to linebackers this season.

WEEK 16 IDP STUDS

Michael Bennett – DE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. HOU) (2): Cast off the shackles of Bennett's Week 15 goose-egg and live in the now. The Texans have consistently ranked toward the top of the league in sacks allowed and fantasy points given up to defensive linemen this year.

Jason Pierre-Paul – DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DAL) (3): This is not the Dallas offensive line of years past. As a matter of fact, no team in the NFC has allowed more sacks than the 51 the Cowboys have allowed in 2018.

Jabaal Sheard – DE, Indianapolis Colts (vs. NYG) (6): The Giants have gotten a bit better over the second half of the 2018 season, but they're still not good. That's especially true for an offensive line that has surrendered 46 sacks—tied for second-most in the NFC.

Kiko Alonso – OLB, Miami Dolphins (vs. JAX) (2): I've been asked a few times on social media this week whether Alonso's recent slump is cause for concern in Championship Week. I expect him to answer that for me in a great matchup Sunday.

Anthony Hitchens – ILB, Kansas City Chiefs (at SEA) (3): It's hard not to love a matchup with the run-heavy Seahawks for Hitchens. The only worry here is that the Seattle stat crew turns 12 tackles into a 5-7 or 4-8 line. But you have to roll those dice.

Kyle Van Noy – ILB, New England Patriots (vs. BUF): Van Noy's been known to occasionally go off when the matchup's right. Playing a Bills team that leads the NFL in fantasy points allowed to linebackers is as right as matchups get.

Vonn Bell – S, New Orleans Saints (vs. PIT) (1): Bell played all but three snaps last week against the Panthers. If he sees a similar snap count against the Steelers he's going to out-point Marcus Williams by a sizable margin.

Jeff Heath – S, Dallas Cowboys (vs. TBB) (2): Heath's not an elite talent by any stretch, but he has a history of occasionally coming up big in favorable matchups. This week's tilt with the pass-happy Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly qualifies.

Adrian Phillips – S, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. BAL) (15): The Ravens are just a middling matchup for defensive backs, but Phillips isn't really playing safety. Last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, he was a three-down linebacker.

IDP DUD OF THE WEEK

Bobby Wagner – ILB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. KCC) (32)

As Nick Shook reported for NFL.com, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll recently paid Wagner quite the complement. "It just seems like he's a little bit better," Carroll said. "He's made more big plays, more significant plays that have affected the game than ever. The thing I love about looking at great players is do they show that ability to do it year after year after year. I think that's what greatness is all about. People say 'hey this guy is going to be the next Jerry Rice' well let's look ten or 12 years from now and see what it looks like. And Bobby's put together a resume of really Hall of Fame stuff. This is the kind of guy that gets there someday."

Wagner has been absolutely on fire of late, working his way back into the top-five among fantasy linebackers despite a sluggish start to the season. He's next to impossible to sit. But the Chiefs have consistently been one of the worst fantasy matchups in the NFL for linebackers this season, and Wagner will be playing Sunday night in front of a Seattle stat crew with a penchant for being assist-happy. A below-average week is a real possibility.

WEEK 16 IDP DUDS

Cameron Heyward – DE, Pittsburgh Steelers (at NOS) (28): Heyward is a very good 3-4 defensive end, but he's not the sort of game-changing talent that can transcend a rotten matchup on a regular basis. And this, friends, is a rotten matchup.

Jerry Hughes – DE, Buffalo Bills (32): Hughes had a great start to the season, and the Bills have quietly fielded one of the NFL's best defenses this year. But starting pass-rushers against Tommy Boy and the Bradyettes is begging for trouble.

Cameron Jordan – DE, New Orleans Saints (vs. PIT) (31): Jordan did OK in a bad matchup last week, accruing five total tackles in a win over the Carolina Panthers. This week's home tilt with the Pittsburgh Steelers is even worse. Caveat emptor.

Jarrad Davis – ILB, Detroit Lions (vs. MIN) (31): Davis has been hot of late, and Minnesota's improved run game could give a boost to this matchup. But trusting a LB going up against the worst matchup in the NFC for that position is still a risky bet.

Blake Martinez – ILB, New York Jets (at NYJ) (29): Martinez has been the bedrock quite a few IDP rosters are built on in 2018, but it's going to be hard for the youngster to hit his season average Sunday against a Jets offense that's borderline offensive.

Joe Schobert – ILB, Cleveland Browns (vs. CIN) (30): As a fan of the Browns, this season has given me lots of joy and cheer and stuff. But counting on Schobert in Week 16 against the free-falling Bungles is an invitation to get Grinched.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – S, Washington Redskins (at TEN) (31): After a hot start with his new team, Clinton-Dix (like the entire Redskins team) cooled way off. That's not likely to reverse against a Titans team that's not big on pushing the ball vertically.

Malcolm Jenkins – S, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. HOU) (29): It's possible that Jenkins could be OK despite a bad matchup in Week 16 if he helps bracket DeAndre Hopkins in coverage. But I'd as soon not risk a big "if" in an effort to achieve "OK."

Eric Weddle – S, Baltimore Ravens (at LAC) (30): Weddle disappointed last week in a favorable IDP matchup with the Buccaneers. Given that I'd be awfully reluctant to roll the dice on him in a bottom-three matchup with his old team.