Divisional Round Prop Bets 2018
Divisional Round Prop Bets
The Fantasy season may be over, but that doesn't mean we can still have a little fun with projections. Vegas lines are always useful for Fantasy and if you are dipping into daily Fantasy this weekend you should still be analyzing Vegas lines.
Part of this analysis is looking at prop lines. They are an indication on how a player may perform according to the oddsmakers at the sportsbooks. They are, essentially, projections.
Props are also fun to bet on and who doesn't like winning money?
Here are a few props I'm looking at for the Divisional Round.
Ezekiel Elliott 21 carries: -233
The books expect Elliott to have around 21 carries, which is why he is a sizeable favorite to hit that mark. The payout isn't great, but it never is with a favorite. You would be risking 1 unit to win 1.42 units.
Elliot faced the Rams once in his career, back in Week 4 of the 2017 season. He had, surprise, 21 carries.
He's hit the over on this line in seven of his regular season games. Just last week, against the Seattle Seahawks, he ran the ball 26 times.
This line feels like Elliott's floor this weekend. On the season, the Rams allow teams an average of 24.1 rush attempts per game. At home, where Dallas will play them this weekend, they allow an average of 22.1 attempts per game.
Elliott is the only player in football with over 300 carries this season. He averages exactly 21 carries per game. The line is on par with his average, but in a playoff football game where the Cowboys will need the best from their play maker, expect Elliott to hit the over.
Ante Up: 25 carries +121, 29 carries +336
Drew Brees 281 pass yards: -204
Rarely does the book get it wrong, but this feels like a situation to exploit. Brees has thrown over 300 yards in five of his seven home games this season.
I understand the Saints offense has slowed down a bit recently, but 281 yards is like dangling candy in front of a baby. The Eagles are a bottom three team against the past, averaging 270.5 yards per game. They are even worse on the road, where they give up 303.3 yards per game, trailing only the porous Chiefs' pass defense.
An MVP candidate, Brees is going to shred this secondary in the Super Dome. 281 pass yards is a laughable line and I will personally be throwing a few bucks down on 300+ yards.
Ante Up: 301 pass yards -116, 350 pass yards +152
Julian Edelman 5 receptions: -476
Of course Edelman will have at least five receptions, no one is actually betting that. He hasn't NOT caught the ball at least five times in only three games this season. He is, as we all know, Tom Brady's go-to receiver.
Yes, the matchup is not the best on paper. Edelman does his damage from the slot and he will draw Desmond King this weekend. Of the 24 receivers playing this weekend, only Chris Conley, Chris Hogan, and Tyrell Williams have a more difficult match up than him, per Pro Football Focus.
Edelman is a different kind of beast in the playoffs. Since 2013, he's had five receptions in a single game and went over that number in his nine other playoff games over that span. In his 10 playoff games over the past six years, he's good for eight receptions a game. Do not be suckered into these ridiculous odds. Go bold, about nine receptions bold.
Ante Up: 6 receptions -175, 7 receptions +104, 8 receptions +200, 9 receptions +400
Marlon Mack 83 rush yards: -192
This may be the best prop of the weekend. There could easily be upwards of 60 points between these two teams. Mack is certainly and up and down player when it comes to rushing, but the matchup is beyond juicy.
The Chiefs let teams run all over them this season to the tune of 132.1 yards per game. Over their past three, they are letting running backs gain over 150 yards per game on the ground.
Mack should feast this weekend. Who cares about Nyheim Hines stealing work in the passing game. We are looking at rushing yards here. It would be hard to imagine Mack not hitting the century mark.
Ante Up: 93 rush yards -118, 103 rush yards +106, 133 rush yards +256
Travis Kelce receiving touchdown: -200
Again, upwards of 60 points in this game. Kelce scored a career-high 10 touchdowns this season. Sure, he hasn't score since Week 14, but he still has a nose for the end zone.
The points in this game is really what has me all in on Kelce scoring (and not once). It opened at 56 and has since moved to 56.5. I like 60 as the floor. It would shock no one if both teams put up 35 points.
Let's say that 35 does come out for the Chiefs. That is seven touchdowns. Kelce is grabbing on of them, and the odds makers are telling us that by the -200 line.
Imagine if he hauls in two scores?
Ante Up: 2 receiving touchdowns +250
Head over to your favorite site and take down the house. Good luck!