DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 19

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

There are eight remaining quarterbacks in the post-season. Russel Wilson outscored five of them in DraftKings points per game in the regular season. He's the fifth-most expensive passer on the main slate.

His game versus the Packers is the perfect spot to stack Seahawks. They are 4-point underdogs to a below-average Green Bay defense by opponent yards per attempt. Wilson is fifth in the NFL in fantasy points per dropback. If Wilson can keep up his efficiency but is forced to throw more while trailing, he'll be the clear path to winning tournaments.

Running Back

Aaron Jones, Green Bay

If there's a shootout in the Divisional Round, you're going to need to stack it to win tournaments. The problem is if you stack Houston/Kansas City game-you won't gain a massive edge even if it does pop off. That's because it is likely going to be the most popular game to stack.

Instead, stack the Seattle/Green Bay game, which is the only other game with a total that his risen since opening.

Like Wilson, Aaron Jones has been deadly efficient this season. Jones is 14th in the NFL at 17.8 touches per game but is third in fantasy points per game. This is mostly on the back of a league-high 19 touchdowns. Some of that is bound to regress but Jones is 3rd in goal line carries and 11th in red zone touches. Scoring opportunities have been abundant for Jones and he's certainly made the most of them.

Damien Williams, Kansas City

You'll find Williams' name in my cash breakdown as well and I typically refrain from doubling players between these two articles. However, Williams is arguably the best points/salary dollar running back on the main slate and he doesn't appear to be a very popular play.

He's averaged 18.3 touches for 120 yards and 1.1 scores in the last four games he's finished. The Chiefs have a 30.5-point team total and are 10-point favorites. Andy Reid has phased out LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson has approximately zero percent of his trust.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

If you're playing Russ, you have to stack him with at least one of his pass-catcher and D.K. Metcalf is going to be monstrously more popular than Lockett after his 160-yard Wild Card Sunday. Quietly, Lockett has still been an integral part of the offense.

He's been targeted at least six times in five straight games and over than span he has 37 targets. Metcalf only has 32.

Lockett also led the league with 25 red zone targets in the regular season. He split Wilson's four red zone passes in the Wild Card Round with Metcalf.

Lockett has a slightly better projection and will come at a lower cost and with less ownership.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans

Will Fuller is another high-variance receiver who could be well under-owned based on his upside. This is mostly because of his tendency to leave games before the clock reaches zero. He often leaves games before the first quarter clock even gets there.

It's really going to hurt your chances of cashing a lineup if he drops a goose egg, but we're not building tournament lineups for the floor, and Fuller is the greatest ceiling player in the NFL.

Fuller has the ability to control an entire game because of his spike-play nature. If he hits multiple deep balls in a game, that's multiple Houston drives that only he scores fantasy points (outside of Deshaun Watson obviously). Instead of taking every player in this game, take the favored running back and stack him with a player that can kill Deandre Hopkins and every other receiver, running back, and tight end on his own offense.

Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco

If you go heavy on a single game (QB-WR1-WR2-Opponent RB), your lineup is going to be pretty unique. At tight end, I think it's worth eating the chalk to get access to the high-upside of either George Kittle or Travis Kelce. Because the Houston/KC game looks to be more popular, I lean Kittle at tight end.

Kittle was top-two in:

Receptions per game - 6.1 (1st)
Yards per game - 75.2 (2nd)
Yards after the catch - 602 (1st in 14 games)

He's $200 cheaper than Kelce on DraftKings and doesn't have the same competition for targets.

Defense

San Francisco 49ers

On DraftKings, the top-four defenses are all ordered in price by their spread. Baltimore is likely the most popular option and if their ownership isn't magnitudes higher than the next most popular defense or Titans players end up being popular, they're a good play.

Stacking Damien Williams with the Kansas City defense is a very good play if stacking his game gets out of control.

However, the best defensive play is San Francisco. They are the top defense in yards per play allowed (4.7) and they're the first defense by DVOA.