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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 17

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes face the lowly Chargers this week in a game that KC needs to win for a shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Patriots need to lose for that to happen but both games take place at 1 pm, meaning the Chiefs won't know if they're efforts are futile for at least a few quarters.

Mahomes has faced the Chargers three times and has generally had his way with them. He's averaged 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt against hem and Quarterback Rating of 105.2. His counting stats have been less than ideal because the Chiefs have won by double-digits in two of three meetings.

This week may end up as Phillip Rivers swan song and if he can keep the Chargers in the game, a shootout would propel Mahomes to another great fantasy game.

Narratives aside, the Chiefs have a top-five implied team total on the slate and Mahomes may be lower owned because of concerns that he doesn't finish the game.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers

In 2018, the Week 17 narrative that showed why knowing the milestones players are chasing is so important was George Kittle's magical season. Kittle posted a monster game in Week 17 to take the crown for the most receiving yards by a tight end ever.

Austin Ekeler is 50 yards away from the fourth 1,000 yards receiving season by a running back and 49 scrimmage yards away from 1,500.

As the Chargers' pass-catching back in a game where they're 8-point dogs, he's in a great spot and is the ideal run back option with Mahomes.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb is also chasing a record in Week 17. He's on a fast track to secure the rushing crown with a 92-yard lead over Christian McCaffrey. He'll be the first Cleveland back to claim the title in over 50 years. Chubb has already acknowledged that he cares about the title and Cleveland has nothing else to play for as they've already been knocked out of playoff contention.

This week, they face the perfect defense for Chubb to close out the season: the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed their opponents to rush for 1,736 yards at 4.8 yards per carry this season. Both marks are bottom-six in the NFL.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton was a sneaky play last week that ended up being chalk by the time lineups locked as roughly 15% of the field was on him. He buried everyone who played him with 9.1 DK points. His price went up and now it's much more likely that he's an unpopular play.

This is despite the fact that he's been targeted 20 times in his past two games and faces the Raiders at home. Oakland has allowed the most yards per attempt to opposing passers this season at 7.9. That number has even gotten progressively worse throughout the season. In their last three games, Oakland's opponents have averaged 8.9 yards per pass.

Buy Sutton in a smash spot versus a terrible Oakland secondary.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs

Both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are fine stacking options with Mahomes. Hill is tied at 7th in the NFL with five receptions of 40+ yards and he's played just 11 games this season. Kelce could set the yards record for a tight end with 172 on Sunday. That mark seems unattainable but it would only be a career-best by four yards.

I'll role with Hill here as he busted in a primetime game versus Chicago the last time we saw him. Kelce's 74 yards were only two more than Hill but he got there on three more catches and scored.

Hill is more likely to be under-owned compared to his ceiling versus Kelce this week and that's the simplest tie-breaker in tournaments.

Tight End

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

The Bucs have been without Mike Evans for the past four games (save for a few snaps four weeks ago). O.J. Howard has played on 85.4% on the Bucs offensive snaps and been targeted 25 times. He's run 99 routes over that stretch.

This week, Tampa Bay faces the Falcons at home. Atlanta has allowed the 12th-most passing yards this year and Jameis Winston is chasing the third-most passing yards in an NFL season-he needs 328 to get there. He will do just that and bring O.J. Howard with him this week.

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers

Robert Griffin III is priced at $5,100 and Gud Edwards is at $4,800 on DraftKings. Both are starters for the Ravens offense and sure to be popular plays. The way to leverage that is with the Steelers defense.

Pittsburgh needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt and they are facing a quarterback who hasn't started a game in almost exactly two years.

Griffin has taken sacks at a 9.2% rate throughout his career and Pittsburgh is second in the NFL with 51 sacks.