DFS Pivot Plays week 7 2018

By Armando Marsal

Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.

Quarterback

Chalk

Jameis Winston $6,300 vs. Cleveland Browns

After last week’s performance and the Vegas numbers for this contest, I fully expect Winston to be one of the more, if not the most popular quarterback this weekend. In his first start this season, Winston threw for 395 yards and four touchdowns, tossing the pigskin 41 times. This week he faces off against the Browns, who have actually been respectable against opposing quarterbacks, as they rank third in DVOA against the pass. They are also giving up fewer than 18 DKFP per game. I like Winston and the weapons on this offense, but if he is chalk this week, I’d rather look in a different direction. While he certainly can light up the scoreboard, he can also struggle and underwhelm in this spot.

Pivot

Baker Mayfield $5,800 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I actually like the idea of playing the other quarterback in this same game, Mayfield. This is just too good of a matchup for any quarterback. The Bucs rank dead last in DVOA against the pass and are yielding the most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks (31.8). In addition, they have surrendered 1,835 passing yards (2nd most) and 16 passing touchdowns (tied for most in NFL). Cleveland is letting Mayfield sling it, as he has attempted at least 41 passes in each of his starts this season. In fact, since he became the starter for the Browns, they are third in pass attempts per game in the league. He disappointed last week, in a spot I liked for him, but I am not hesitating to go back to the well with Mayfield.

Running Backs

Chalk

Tarik Cohen $5,100 vs. New England Patriots

Cohen has been lighting it up in recent games. It took several weeks to get him involved, but the Bears have made adjustments and are finding ways to get one of their best play makers the ball in his hand. In the last two games, Cohen has been peppered with 17 targets and has played in at least 48 percent of the offensive snaps. He draws a favorable matchup against the Patriots and this should be a good game environment. New England has allowed 36 receptions (6th most) to opposing backs and they are yielding over 25 DKFP per game to the position. I am not sure if he will be the most popular back this week, but I do expect him to be one of the most popular ones. That said, this is chalk I am willing to eat.

Pivot

Latavius Murray $5,000 at New York Jets

Dalvin Cook has been ruled out for this contest, so Murray will draw another start. Last week, he did an excellent job filling in for Cook, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, it was by far his best game of the season. This week he faces off against a Jets defense that is giving up 4.1 YPC this season and 86.2 rushing yards per game to running backs. In addition, they are yielding 24.2 DKFP per game to the position. The Vikings are road favorites here, so this is a favorable potential game script for Murray. And although the Vikings have been a pass first offense this season, they still fed Murray last week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do so again this week.

Wide Receivers

Chalk

Robert Woods $7,000 at San Francisco 49ers

With Cooper Kupp out, I expect more people to consider Woods this weekend in a really nice matchup. The 49ers have somewhat struggled against opposing wide outs, allowing over 40 DKFP per game to the positon, to go along with eight receiving touchdowns. His one-on-one matchup against K'Waun Williams is not the softest one, but Woods does own a four percent advantage rating according to PFF. Woods has been very efficient this season, scoring at least 19 DKFP in all but two games, and scoring single-digits just once. He also leads the team in targets, receiving yards, receptions, and air yards. The Rams have the highest implied team total on the slate and should generate points, so it would not be surprising if Woods has something to do with it.

Pivot

Jarvis Landry $7,300 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I might be underestimating the ownership for the Browns offense, but Fantasy Labs has Landry projected at 9-12 percent ownership this weekend, which is too low in my opinion. He draws a phenomenal matchup against a Bucs defense that has been extremely generous to receivers, allowing 10 receiving touchdowns (2nd most), 85 receptions (7th most), and 1,020 yards, to go along with 52.3 DKFP per game (2nd most). His one-on-one matchup against M.J. Stewart is also a good one as he ranks well below average and Landry has a 27 percent advantage rating in. Landry remains a high-volume receiver with 10.8 targets per game and is top 10 in the league in air yards. Although he has underwhelmed in recent games, this is a get right spot for him, and it would not be surprising to see him as one of the higher scoring receivers this week. If he is as low owned as projected by Labs, you want to be overweight on him and it also makes Landry a great pivot play.

Tight Ends

Chalk

David Njoku $4,200 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you have been reading my articles this week, you know I am pretty fond off Njoku against the Bucs. After all, this defense has allowed 36 receptions (4th most), 486 receiving yards (2nd most), and three receiving touchdowns (2nd most) to opposing tight ends, to go along with 21.1 DKFP per game (most in the league). In the last three games, Njoku is averaging 10 targets per game, and has 18 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown during that stretch, while not scoring fewer than 10 DKFP in any of those weeks. This sets up as a near perfect situation for Njoku and at this price I expect him to be one of the heaviest owned tight ends of the week. I am ok with that and would be willing to eat the chalk here.

Pivot

Trey Burton $4,300 vs. New England Patriots

I do not intend on pivoting off of Njoku much this weekend, but if I do, I will be considering Burton. As much as I respect the Bears defense, I still think the Patriots offense will find a way to put points on the board in this contest, which will make this a good game environment for Burton. This is also a good matchup, as the Patriots have allowed four receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which is the most in the league and they are yielding 14.7 DKFP per game. Burton is averaging nearly five targets per game and also has four red zone targets (14 percent). He has also found the pay dirt in three of his last four games. While he has not flashed his ceiling this season, we know it is pretty high, and this could be a game script that provides him the opportunity to pop off for a huge game. As I said before, I am not planning on fading Njoku much, but Burton may go overlooked in a good spot.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal