DFS Pivot Plays week 6 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal
Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday slate.



Deshaun Watson $6,700 vs. Cleveland Browns

Watson has played lights out in recent weeks, scoring 25+ fantasy points in three consecutive games. He gets a great matchup at home against a bad Browns defense, who is surrendering 243.8 passing yards per game and have given up 11 passing touchdowns, while yielding 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Watson has developed a nice floor now that the Texans have opened up the passing game, as he has attempted at least 31 passes in each of his last three games. He is also capable of moving the ball both through the air and on the ground with his legs, increasing his upside. Houston has one of the higher implied team totals of the week and that will also drive ownership up. Considering all factors, he is clearly in a good position to be productive and comes at a reasonable price, making him a high demand option at quarterback this week.


Carson Palmer $6,100 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At this point in his career, Palmer may not have the ceiling Watson does, but he can still come close in fantasy points on any given Sunday. The matchup is one that favors him this weekend as the Bucs defense is giving up 315.3 passing yards per game and have surrendered seven passing touchdowns. Palmer is quietly averaging over 300 passing yards per game this season and has topped 19 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He has also topped 320 passing yards and 20 fantasy points in each home game this season, which is where this game will be played. This is a game where he should be passing as the Bucs are good against the run and the Cardinals have not been efficient running the ball, making him a viable option in all formats at this affordable price tag and a good pivot play in tournaments from Watson.

Running Backs


Mark Ingram $4,400 vs. Detroit Lions

The Saints parted ways with Adrian Peterson, so by default, Ingram should see a larger role immediately. Peterson accounts for 20 percent of the red zone carries, while Ingram accounts for 33 percent, so I expect some of that to filter towards Ingram, increasing his touchdown equity. Ingram is also way too cheap and is on a team that is projected to score some points this weekend. In addition, if you take his talent into account, he becomes a very appealing option. The matchup is not all that great, which does concern me a bit and the game script might be better suited for Alvin Kamara, who I also believe will be very popular. However, Ingram does not have to do much to pay off his salary and there is a good chance that the Saints will be in the red zone several times this weekend, so the opportunity should be there for him.


Lamar Miller $5,400 vs. Cleveland Browns

A lot of the focus is on the Texans passing game this weekend and rightfully so. That said, I am not hearing enough about Miller and that is making me like him more than I did at the start of the week. He is averaging 19 touches and 93.2 total yards per game, while scoring two touchdowns. He has also played in 76 percent of the Texans snaps and accounts for eight percent of the team’s target share, not to mention, 52.9 percent of the red zone rushes. His role on this offense is significant and this is a team that is projected to score 28.5 points this week and play with a lead, so Miller should be very involved in this matchup. The Browns have allowed four total touchdowns to running backs this season and have shown vulnerability with pass catching backs, so this is shaping to be a very good situation for Miller.

Wide Receivers


Deandre Hopkins $8,100 vs. Cleveland Browns

There is plenty of buzz surrounding Hopkins this weekend and I expect him to be the most popular receiver on the slate. He is averaging 12 targets per game, accounting for 38 percent of the Texans target share, as well as, 38.9 percent of the red zone targets. He is also coming off of a three-touchdown game and has now scored five touchdowns this season. He has a 13.1 aDot and a 58 percent catch rate, in essence Hopkins is doing Hopkins things. The matchup is also one that favors him as he is projected to see plenty of Jason McCourty, who Hopkins has an 18 percent advantage rating against. This is a situation where Hopkins should thrive in and many are aware of that, hence why he will be a fan favorite.


Antonio Brown $9,300 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs defense is still respectable, but it is not as good as it was a couple of years back. Brown is coming off of a very nice game, catching 10-of-19 targets for 157 yards. It was his third 28+ fantasy point game of the season. He is projected to be covered by Terrance Mitchell, who Brown has a 52 percent advantage rating against (second highest of any receiver this weekend), per Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs have been generous to receivers this season, allowing 168.4 receiving yards per game and yielding nine receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs. In addition, they are also giving up over 35 fantasy points per game to the position. Considering how popular DeAndre Hopkins is going to be and Julio Jones generating plenty of buzz as well, Brown could go completely overlooked and could very well be the highest raw points receiver of the weekend.

Tight Ends


Travis Kelce $6,100 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kelce is clear from his concussion and is ready for Week 6 against the Steelers. He leads the team with 37 targets, which is good for 23 percent of the Chiefs target share and also accounts for 27.3 of the red zone targets. He has an 11 percent advantage rating in this matchup according to Pro Football Focus, one of the highest for a tight end this weekend. He remains a focal point in this offense and makes for a strong play most weeks, including this one.


Kyle Rudolph $3,800 at Green Bay Packers

Rudolph is coming off of his best performance of the season, catching 6-of-9 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. With Stefon Diggs out this week, Rudolph could be in for some extra targets. As it is, he accounts for 14 percent of the Vikings target share. In addition, this is a matchup that favors him, as he has the highest advantage rating of the week of any tight end at 33 percent. The potential game script also bodes well for Rudolph, making this an all-around solid situation for him. I really like the idea of paying down a bit at this position and also get lower ownership, while spending up elsewhere.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal