DFS Pivot Plays week 16 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday main slate.



Cam Newton $6,800 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Newton draws one of the better matchups for a quarterback against the Bucs who rank fourth worst in DVOA against the pass. They are also allowing 275 passing yards per game, but have allowed 300+ passing yards in six games this season and have surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Lastly, the Bucs have allowed the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks which bodes well for Newton who has averaged 61.4 rushing yards per game since Week 6. With Greg Olsen back in the picture, Newton gets his most reliable weapon and his favorite pass catcher back, so we should see him continue to play well in the next two games. The Panthers have a healthy implied team total, so should score some points in this one, making this offense one that many people would like be considering this weekend.


Jared Goff $6,100 at Tennessee Titans

I really like this Rams offense this weekend and do not hear a ton of buzz surrounding them for the exception of Todd Gurley. Goff was underwhelming last week, but the matchup was a difficult one. That will not be the case this week as the Rams face off against the Titans who rank ninth worst in DVOA against the pass. If you look at his performances in favorable matchups, you will see that Goff has exceled in them, scoring at least 19 DK points against the Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, Giants, and Texans. The Titans are yielding 259 passing yards per game and have surrendered 22 passing touchdowns, this includes games where they have shutdown inferior quarterbacks, so they are much worse than these numbers suggest. I like the upside that Goff brings to the table and his price tag, I would not hate the idea of pivoting from Newton to him in large field tournaments as they both offer similar upside this week.

Running Backs


Alvin Kamara $8,300 vs. Atlanta Falcons

It appeared that Kamara was going to annihilate the Falcons in their last meeting but he was concussed on the first drive and missed the remainder of the game. In that first drive, however, he caught three passes for 25 yards and also rushed for two. I really like attacking this Falcons defense with pass catching backs as they have no answer for them. They have allowed the most receptions, ninth most receiving yards, and third most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Kamara is second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, while being tied for first in receiving touchdowns, so this is clearly a smash spot for him. Not to mention how well of a runner he has been this season, making it nearly impossible for the Falcons to contain him. There is a lot to love about him this week, which is why he will likely be one of the more popular backs of the week.


Kareem Hunt $8,400 vs. Miami Dolphins

Hunt is in a great spot this week against a Miami Dolphins team that struggles against the run. They are yielding the third most fantasy points per game, as well as 4.2 yards per carry to opposing backs. In addition, they are yielding 95.2 rushing yards per game and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. Lastly, this defense has surrendered the fifth most receptions (85) and are tied for second in receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs with five. Hunt has posted back-to-back strong performances and can make it a third this weekend. He has at least 24 carries in each of his last two games and has been peppered with 12 targets during that span, while scoring three total touchdowns. While Hunt will carry some ownership this weekend, chances are he will not be as popular as Kamara and offers similar upside in just as good, if not better of a matchup.

Wide Receivers


Keenan Allen $7,700 at New York Jets

Allen’s price has dropped back down to a reasonable amount even though he draws a fantastic matchup. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA against opposing number one wide receivers, allowing well over 30 fantasy points per game to receivers. He is expected to see plenty of Buster Skrine this weekend, who Allen has a 52 percent advantage rating against. While Allen cooled down last weekend, he still received eight targets and continues to be a high volume receiver, averaging 9.8 targets per game. With Hunter Henry out of the picture, Allen could actually see a boost in targets this week. This is a matchup where he should fare well in and one that a ceiling game is certainly possible. He will be one of the more popular receivers this week and rightfully so.


Jarvis Landry $6,300 at Kansas City Chiefs

I really like the matchup for Landry this week against a Chiefs defense that has been generous to opposing wide outs. They are yielding the third most fantasy points per game to receivers, while giving up 16 receiving touchdowns to the positon which is tied for third most in the league. He is expected to see plenty of Steven Nelson this weekend, who grades out below average on Pro Football Focus and a matchup that Landry has a 52 percent advantage rating in. Landry is a high-volume receiver, he third in the league with 144 targets this season and he accounts for 30.8 percent of the Dolphins red zone targets, so aside from the high volume, there is touchdown equity here. You save $1,400 by rostering Landry over Allen, which could be really helpful in a week like this one where the pricing is a bit stiff. I expect Landry to go overlooked this week, which should not be the case as the Dolphins should be chasing points in this contest, which makes the potential game script a favorable one for him.

Tight Ends


Greg Olsen $5,200 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We saw vintage Olsen last week as he caught 9-of-12 passes for 116 yards and a touchdowns. He faces off against the Bucs who have been solid defensively against tight ends. That said, Olsen’s role on this offense when healthy is a significant one and the volume is consistent. In addition, he has done well in recent games against the Bucs, eclipsing 100 receiving yards in two of their last five meetings. Many people are on him this week and rightfully so because of the volume, price and caliber of tight end he is, but this is chalk that I do not have an issue fading this week.


Vernon Davis $3,400 vs. Denver Broncos

Davis has been less consistent as of late, but has seen 12 targets in the last two games and draws a very nice matchup this week. He faces off against the Broncos who rank seventh worst in DVOA against tight ends and are yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position. In addition, the Broncos have allowed the seventh most receptions (73), third most receiving yards (902), and tied for third most touchdowns (8) to opposing tight ends. While Davis does not offers as high of a floor as Olsen this week, he offers similar upside in a far superior matchup and comes at a much cheaper price tag. There is more risk in rostering Davis this week, but it is a risk I am willing to take.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal