DFS Pivot Plays week 10 2018

By Armando Marsal

Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.

Quarterback

Chalk

Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,900 vs. Washington Redskins

Fitzpatrick started last week in place of Jameis Winston and picked up right where he left off to start the season. He completed 24-of-40 passes for 243 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions, scoring 26 DKFP. This week he faces the Redskins who rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and are yielding the ninth most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. This unit is giving up 271.8 passing yards per game and has surrendered 15 passing touchdowns. Fitzpatrick is going to sling it here, as the Bucs defense is terrible and they tend to play from behind a lot. Even if this is a close game, he is known to take chances downfield and is not shy to throw it. The Redskins have also been pretty good against the run, which means the best way to beat them is through the air. Considering his price and usage, along with some of his results this season, it is not surprising to see him as one of the higher projected quarterbacks when it comes to ownership.

Pivot

Andy Dalton $5,800 vs. Atlanta Falcons

If A.J. Green was active, I think that Dalton would be much more popular, but it appears that people are being hesitant with him this week. I get it, he is not a quarterback that can be trusted on a regular basis and now he has his best weapon out. That said, this is a great matchup for him, the Saints defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass and is yielding 325 passing yards per game. New Orleans has given up 2,601 passing yards (4th most) and 18 passing touchdowns (tied 4th most) to opposing signal callers this season, while surrendering the second most DKFP per game (27.5). In addition to be bad against the pass, they are stout against the run, essentially forcing opposing offenses to beat them through the air. The game environment is a favorable one as the Saints are favored here, so the Bengals should be slinging it. Dalton is very volatile and cannot be trusted in cash, but the matchup and his upside, makes him a nice pivot in tournaments of the popular Fitzpatrick.

Running Backs

Chalk

Dion Lewis $4,600 vs. New England Patriots

Lewis is expected to be one of the more popular backs this week and this is chalk I am willing to eat. He has played well recently, scoring over 20 DKFP in each of his last two games, while eclipsing 100 total yards in each of those games. In addition, during that stretch, he has not received fewer than 19 touches in a single game. He draws a nice matchup and a positive game environment this week against a Patriots defense that tends to be vulnerable against pass catching backs. They have allowed 53 receptions (tied 6th most), 463 receiving yards (7th most), and three receiving touchdowns (3rd most) to opposing backs, while yielding over 20 DKFP per game to the position. Lewis should take advantage of this opportunity and is way too cheap considering his role in recent weeks. Despite the ownership, he makes for a strong play in all formats.

Pivot

Mark Ingram $4,500 at Cincinnati Bengals

Like I mentioned above, I intend on rostering the chalky Dion Lewis this week. I like Duke Johnson as a pivot from Lewis, but Johnson may also be somewhat popular, so if you are looking at complete reduction of ownership, Ingram is the way to go. There is risk when rostering Ingram due the committee in New Orleans, but we should be able to project him between 14-16 touches with upside for more. He has received seven red zone rush attempts, which is tied for second most on the team, despite missing the first four games of the season. Since Week 5, he has been awfully quiet, but when you look at game environments and matchups, it makes sense. This is a situation that may be better suited for Ingram, as the Saints are on the road and should be playing with a lead. The Bengals are yielding over 100 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry, making this a favorable matchup as well. In tournaments, he makes for an enticing pivot off of Lewis if you want to go in that direction, as he should be low owned and offers nice upside.

Wide Receivers

Chalk

Michael Thomas $8,100 at Cincinnati Bengals

Thomas erupted for 12 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown last week, scoring 42.1 DKFP. This week he draws another favorable matchup against a Bengals secondary that is yielding the third most DKFP per game to wide outs (45.3). Cincinnati has allowed 119 receptions (8th most), 1,626 receiving yards (3rd most), and nine touchdowns to the position. His one-on-one matchup against William Jackson is a good one, as Thomas has a 34 percent advantage rating. Considering the matchup he has this week and his performance last week, he is projected to be one of the higher owned receivers this week, and rightfully so. There is a lot of merit in rostering him this week, the only concern I have is that I feel that the Saints will rely on their run game a bit more this week.

Pivot

Davante Adams $7,800 vs. Miami Dolphins

Adams is a high-volume receiver that is very consistent. He has been peppered with 87 targets this season (27 percent) and leads the team with 17 red zone targets (37 percent). This week he draws a tough matchup against Xavien Howard who grades out above average on PFF, but Adams does have a 19 percent advantage rating. This just goes to show you the caliber of receiver that he is. He has been able to get the job done in below average matchups, so this week should be no different. The Dolphins secondary has done a solid job against opposing wide outs, but they are not a complete shutdown defense either. Adams should go a bit overlooked this week and that could be a mistake. He offers plenty of upside and a safe floor, and is also the cheapest he has been since Week 5. I like the idea of pivoting from Thomas to Adams this week in tournaments.

Tight Ends

Chalk

Jimmy Graham $4,600 vs. Miami Dolphins

Graham has been one of the more reliable tight ends this season and is priced down to the cheapest he has been since Week 4. In addition, the Dolphins have been generous to tight ends this season, allowing five receiving touchdowns to the position which is tied for third most. Graham is second in Green Bay with eight red zone targets (17.4 percent) and with 55 targets (17 percent). He has put together some nice performances in recent games, scoring at least 15 DKFP in two of his last three contests. It comes to no surprise that at this price, in this matchup, and the upside he offers, he is going to be a fan favorite this week.

Pivot

Jordan Reed $4,400 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know, I know. Reed has been a disappointment all season long and carries a ton of risk, but this is a matchup that is just too good to pass up on. The Bucs are allowing the second most DKFP per game (18.3), while giving up 48 receptions (5th most), 650 yards (most in the league), and five touchdowns (tied 2nd most) to the positon. Reed has struggled this year, but it is not because of lack of volume. In fact, he has at least six targets in three of his last four games. I like the idea of pivoting off of Graham in tournaments for Reed who will likely go completely overlooked this week. He offers a low floor, but there is still some upside here and hopefully it comes into fruition this week.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal