DFS Bobby Gomes Tournament Breakdown Week 8 2018
In tournaments we are ultimately trying to differentiate between “Good” and “Bad” Chalk. Chalk for those who don’t know is considered the favorite. In DFS the chalk would be considered the player or players who are going to receive the highest ownership on a given slate. In tournaments we are deciding if we should roster the chalk or fade it with a more high variance player in an effort to gain leverage over the field. Outside of game selection the best DFS players tend are usually the best at differentiating between good and bad Chalk.
Goff (6,000) (Projected Ownership 9 -12%)
The Rams have the highest implied team total on the board at 32.8 points. Goff is at home where he has averaged where he’s averaging 31 DK points in three games. The Rams have a positive Game environment versus a Packers team that plays no defense and will put up points to keep pace.
Matt Stafford (5,600) (Projected Ownership 5-8%)
Matt Stafford is going to come in low owned at home. The Lions have the fourth highest team total on the board at 25.8 points. The Reason Stafford stands out is because he should have to throw in this game to beat Seattle. Seattle ranks 12th in DVOA against the run according to Pro Football Focus. Seattle’s secondary has been great of late but If Detroits going to hit they're team total it's going to be through the air not on the ground.
Baker Mayfield (5,700 (Projected Ownership 1%)
Baker Mayfield and the Browns stack should be a massive leverage play on this slate. After letting everyone down as major chalk and now facing the chalk defense of the week on the road. Ownership is going to be extremely low. I think we can capitalize rostering mayfield here in a situation where he has positive game script and the game environment should be ideal.
Todd Gurley (9,800) (Projected Ownership 30 - 40%)
Gurley is Gurley. Fall in line, price doesn’t matter. The Rams are going to run 11 personnel the entire game limiting the number of men the packers can put in the box versus Gurley and they already rank 29th in DVOA against the run.
Kareem Hunt (7,100) (Projected Ownership 21-25)
Kareem Hunt point per dollar wise looks like the best play on the slate. As a 9.5 point favorite, Hunt has a positive gamescript and the broncos ranked 28th in DVOA versus the run. The past two weeks Hunt has gone for 326 total yards and 4 touchdowns.
Raheem Mostert (3,800) (Projected Ownership 2-4%)
If Brieda is out this becomes a lock in cash and tournaments. If Brieda Plays Mostert is still worth the tournament flier. The last two weeks mostert has been running well, rushing for 146 yards on just 19 carries. The Cardinals have been brutal against opposing running backs, allowing the most fantasy points, most rushing yards per game, and most rushing touchdowns (12) to the position this year.
Kenny Golladay (5,700) (Project Ownership 5-8%)
Kenny Golladay is too cheap at (5,700) this guy should be in the seven k’s he is continuously having long touchdowns taken away by penalties. Hopefully he catches a bomb this week and they're are no flags.
Odell Beckham (7,500) (Projected Ownership 9-12%)
OBJ IS OBJ and if his ownership hits the single digits you should roster him. OBJ has gone over 100 yards in two of his last three games and at this price tag of 7,500 is the cheapest he’s has been since his rookie season outside of Week 1 this season versus the Jags.
Jarvis Landry (7,200) (Projected Ownership 2-4%)
Jarvis Landry seems like a strong leverage play in tournaments this week. The Pittsburgh defense is the Chalk defense of the week and Landry receiving style is a great way to attack the zone scheme that they play. Landry was targeted 15 times last week. I think we can expect the same type of volume in a game that the browns should once again be playing from behind.
Trey Burton (Projected Ownership 2-4%)
Trubisky will throw his way rain or shine doesn’t matter. Burton had a great fantasy week in week 7 versus the Patriots and I expect the same kind of production to continue against the Jets.
Travis Kelce (6,800) (Projected Ownership 13-16%)
Think Kelce is going to get going this week. If you want to stack KC with Hunt or fade Hunt and go with one of the lower end running backs. Kelce has two TD upside versus the Broncos who Rank 21st in defense against the position.
Vance Mcdonald (3,700) (Projected Ownership 9-12%)
Tight Ends versus Cleveland has been a thing for a little while now. Vance is a guy who has really came into his own this season in the Steelers offense. The Browns defense has actually been doing well against opposing quarterbacks. So i wouldn’t be surprised if Ben checks down a little more this week than he would actually rather like too.
Bengals (2,500) (Projected Ownership 5-8%)
Jameis throws picks its just inevitable that he will make a bad decision at some point in the game. The Bengals are always a tough team to play in Cincinnati. I like the Bengals defense here as a tournament pivot of the Chalky steelers.
Ravens (2,800) (Projected Ownership 5-8%)
Like Jameis, Cam is also turnover prone. The Ravens defense has been better since getting top corner Jimmy Smith back. Even though Carolina is at home i think this game is going to be a grind it out game for the Panthers the Ravens will force turnovers and not make it easy on Newton and the Panthers.
Steelers (2,300) (Projected Ownership 25-30%)
The Steelers are the chalk, but I recommend being below the field or fading entirely in tournaments. The Steelers get Baker Mayfield at home as an 8 point favorite. I wrote them up because they are the obvious chalk but also offer good salary relief if you decide to roster them.