Target and Snap Analysis Week 14 2016

By Jen Ryan

I’ve been warning you for a few weeks about this now but here we are, round one of the fantasy football playoffs. If you are out of it, don’t quit, or drop all of your players, or any of those other salty moves that people pull. Have a little bit of pride, and never forget about daily fantasy football. If you are still in contention this week, you will want to be sure to play your most optimal roster and the statistics can help you with those decisions. All of the quick hits I provide you with can be dug up using our following tools:

Targets (including 3 week data): https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootballtargets/fantasy-football-target-stats.cfm

Targets (including red zone data): https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm

Snaps: https://www.footballdiehards.com/nfl-snap-counts.cfm

Here we go.
- While I am not sure of the exact fantasy football term for it, David Johnson is an absolute monster. His 321 PPR points so far this season are 60 points more than the player behind him, Ezekiel Elliott, and he is the only player with over 300 fantasy points. Johnson now has just one week where he was not an RB1, and has been the top scoring back in fantasy football three weeks in a row.

- Both Elliott and DeMarco Murray have ten RB1 games and two RB2 games. Neither have finished outside of the top 24 in any week this season.

- Of all players with at least 50 targets, Jamison Crowder’s 2.24 points per opportunity leads all players. On his 76 total targets this season he has 58 receptions for 767 yards and seven touchdowns, which is good for a score on 9.2% of his targets.

- Below is a comparison of Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson through 13 games:

Despite missing three games with a knee injury, seeing 45 less targets, and a smaller team target share, Bryant has matched Robinson’s touchdowns. He scores on a higher percentage of his targets and scores more points per opportunity.

- Through 13 weeks, here are the leaders in receiving touchdowns and the frequency per target in which they score.

It can be argued that outside of Brown, Evans, and Beckham the rest of this chart is quite surprising.

- Here are some notable players who have less receiving yards than David Johnson (704):
o DeAndre Hopkins
o DeSean Jackson
o Dez Bryant
o Jordan Reed
o Allen Robinson
o Randall Cobb
o Michael Floyd

- Ezekiel Elliott leads all running backs with 1,286 rushing yards and he is joined by David Johnson and DeMarco Murray as the only thousand yard rushers. Total yards, however look a bit different:

As I mentioned above, Johnson is outperforming WR1’s and WR2’s in the receiving department.

- Receivers who have 1,000 yards under their belts should be mentioned, too:

o Jones leads in yards but is the WR3 in PPR scoring.
o Hilton is not a top-five receiver. He is the WR6 behind Jordy Nelson.
o Evans leads all receivers with 138 targets and eight games as a WR1.
o Brown leads all receivers with 11 touchdowns and 88 receptions. (Larry Fitzgerald also has 88 receptions).
o Beckham has three 100-yard games this season. He had seven in 2014 and eight in 2015.

- Rishard Matthews may be coming off of a bye week, but he still leads receivers with a 3-week target share of 34%, a lead he shares with Emmanuel Sanders. Matthews’ 153 PPR points leads all Titan receivers, as do his seven touchdowns. This week, The Titans face the Broncos, who happen to be the top-ranked defense against the pass.

- Julian Edelman leads all receivers with 40 targets over his past three games. Those targets have translated to 56 PPR points over that time span. This week, the Patriots face the 16th-ranked Ravens’ pass defense but this should be no problem for Edelman. He has proven year in and year out that his target share is sustainable and he’s been dominating the looks over the past three weeks.

- There isn’t a receiver in football with more red zone targets than Jordy Nelson’s 15. Eight of his ten touchdowns have been scored from within the red zone. Surprisingly, Anquan Boldin is right behind him with 12 red zone targets, where five of his six season-long touchdowns have been scored.

Each week, I stress the importance of using our tools in the links provided above to dig around and find stats that stick out to you. Each week, I tell you that these just happen to be what the numbers told me and that you should get in there and see what they tell you. Finally, each week I mention how I use all this data in Excel and encourage you to do the same. This summer, it was highly suggested to me by a good friend of mine that I take the time to learn at least a few of the powerful things Excel can do and how Excel can be a great tool for fantasy football. That friend is an Excel wizard and he has helped me more than I could have imagined. Be sure to check out his Excel magic by following Mike Beers on Twitter @beerswater, and searching his hashtag #chartsonchartsoncharts. If you are interested in a specific player, go ahead and ask him, you can tell him I sent you. Good luck this week!