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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 7

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Russel Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

There are a handful of games worth heavily stacking on this main slate:

ATL/LAR - 54.5-point total
SEA/BAL - 50.5
NYG/ARI - 49.5
DAL/PHI - 49.5

The next game below these four has a total of 2.5 fewer points.
Atlanta versus Los Angeles is going to be the most popular to stack but the quarterbacks in the game don't have the insane upside that the passers in Seattle versus Baltimore do. Lamar Jackson is first in the NFL in rushing yards for a passer by over 200 yards but Russel Wilson has quietly snuck into the top-five. After a 2018 season that saw Seattle rarely utilize his legs, it's a sight for sore eyes to see him scrambling and running again.

The benefit of taking Wilson is that the options to stack him with are very narrow because of the confined target shares in Seattle, especially with Will Dissly out.

Tyler Lockett has a 22% target share and no other Seahawks pass-catcher has garnered more than 16% of the team's targets. D.K. Metcalf, on the other hand, leads the team in air yards with 467. There are two options to stack with Wilson but he projects to be one of the highest-scoring players on the slate. That implies a high correlation with his two pass-catching options which makes him the ideal passer to start with.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette makes an appearance in the Cash Game article that accompanies this one as well. He makes the tournament list as well because he's simply the best running back play on the slate and the second option isn't close.

Fournette sits behind only Christian McCaffrey with 141 total touches and he's getting tremendous run in the receiving game as well. He is seventh in running back targets this season. That sets him up perfectly to tee off on the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most receptions (39) and receiving yards (396) to opposing backs this season.

Keep playing Fournette until his price is massively hiked up.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Marlon Mack may be the most overlooked workhorse back of the week. He is now a home favorite after the spread moved from a pick'em to a point in favor of the Colts.

Mack has 20 carries in three of five games this season and he's added a small amount of receiving equity to his game since last year. He has three games of at least two receptions so far. Mack had five such games in 12 contests last season.

Mack and the Colts were able to stifle Kansas City two weeks ago with an aggressive defense and an efficient run game that controlled the clock. Against a similarly potent Houston offense, it's likely that they'll try this approach again. Watson and company are coming off a massive game against the Chiefs where he scored 31.4 points on DraftKings. He scored 44.74 the week before that.

Watson is going to be a popular play but if Frank Reich can execute the same game plan that stopped Kansas City against the Texans, Mack becomes the ultimate leverage play.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

On top of leading his team in target share by a wide margin, Tyler Lockett and Will Dissly's average depth of targets have been within two of each other through six weeks. Lockett could see an increase in volume as he picks up work left behind in the same areas of the field left behind by Dissly. Dissly also leaves behind five red-zone targets.

Because Lockett has a significantly higher target projection than D.K. Metcalf, Lockett is the better play in low stakes tournaments and small-field GPP's. In largest contests like the DraftKings Millionaire, Metcalf's air yards are worth chasing and you may even want to run both Lockett and Metcalf for a particularly unique lineup.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp was one of the most popular plays at receiver last week and posted 17 scoreless yards on four catches, costing the many players who rostered him a lot of money. That sour taste will keep his ownership in check during the matchup of all matchups: Atlanta has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.

Despite last week's dud, Kupp has still seen elite volume up to this point. He is first in the NFL with 69 targets to his name and is the third-highest scoring fantasy receiver.

Kupp won't be unpopular but if things had gone differently last week, he would be the single most popular play on the main slate by a wide margin. One game shouldn't affect our views of a player that drastically. Roster Kupp and leverage the recency bias of all those he burned last week.

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

After being owned by roughly 60% of players in larger double-up contests and hitting for an 8-117-1 line, Austin Hooper is going to be massive chalk. He's underpriced and still remains the best play in cash. In tournaments, getting off of a player with the ownership Hooper is going to see is a must.

That's where Mark Andrews comes in. Andrews had a good day last week but came up a single yard short of the 100-yard bonus and DraftKings and didn't find the end zone. He nearly had a big day but the point-chasers will be running after Hooper's line from Week 6 keeping Andrews' ownership in check.

Andrews has a higher market share of targets (23%) and share of air yards (23%) than Hooper, his team just hasn't been forced to throw nearly as much as Atlanta.

Now the Ravens are road dogs in a game with a high total. Jackson is going to have to throw to keep up with Wilson and that will directly boost the volume Andrews gets. He's the best option from Baltimore to stack with Wilson.

Defense

Indianapolis Colts

Marlon Mack hitting almost necessitates the Colts defense hitting as well. If that is true, then there's no reason not to run them back with Mack considering how affordable the defense is and how highly correlated the two will be.

Watson has also taken 18 sacks this season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL. Conversely, Indianapolis is in the top half of the league, averaging 2.6 sacks on defense per game.

If you don't run Mack in your tournament lineups feel free to look elsewhere at defense. If you do run Mack, the Colts defense has to get locked in.