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DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2019 Week 12

By Kyle Dvorchak

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield has been on a tear of not turning the ball over and not getting sacked lately.

First seven games:

12 interceptions
21 sacks

Last three games

0 interceptions
5 sacks

If Mayfield can continue to play in a way that doesn't cut his drives short and cap the number of points he can score, he'll be a phenomenal play. Against Miami, the probability that he can do that is exceptionally high.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas both need a lot of touches to pay off their price. The odds that both of them are good values at their staggering costs are relatively low.

The Saints are at home as large favorites so you still have to have one and Kamara is the guy.

In two games back from injury, Kamara has 20 targets with 18 catches for 97 yards. He's only been targeted double-digit times in one other game this season.

Kamara carried the ball 13 times last week which erases any concerns that the Saints were going to continue to limit him to a pass-catching role as well.

This week, Kamara faces the Panthers as a home-favorite. Carolina has given up the third-most points to opposing backs this season. If Kamara is going to break a slate this season, you'd be reading about that slate right now.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt is only viable as a Baker-Hunt stack because he's been used extensively as a pass-catcher in Cleveland but not as a rusher. He has 10 carries in two games but 17 targets.

Hunt has nearly half as many targets as Chubb and more air yards in two games. Chubb has played 10.

Hunt has moved into an inflated version of Duke Johnson's role from years past and that makes him the sneakiest stacking option to run with Baker.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

Odell Beckham is currently 8th in the NFL in air yards (1,064) and 10th in targets (89). Of the top-10 players in air yards, OBJ is the only one with a single touchdown. Only three members of the top-10 in targets have a single touchdown.

Volume predicts touchdowns better than anything else and OBJ has been getting volume in droves. This week, against a horrid Dolphins secondary, Beckham-Mayfield stacks are going to make people a lot of money.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
D.J. Moore has transformed into a true alpha receiver in the second half of the season. Since Week 6 (which doesn't even factor out Moore's bye week), Moore is 5th in the NFL in targets (55) and 9th in air yards (600).

His average depth of targets has also steadily risen. Over that same span, he has a 10.9 aDOT. Before Week 6 his aDOT was 9.6. His increase in targets makes that seemingly small increase even more important.

The Panthers are 8.5-point underdogs which should set them up for another pass-heavy attack. That puts Moore in play for cash and tournaments. In tournaments, stacking him with Kamara to leverage the game script further is a great play.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

With Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams only having to worry about DeVante Parker on the outside, it's going to be difficult for Parker to find much breathing room and garner his usual target share this week. That elevates Mike Gesicki into the Dolphins' No. 1 receiving roll in a game where they're expected to get blown out.

Gesicki has averaged 5.3 targets per game in his previous six outings. Given his freakish atleticism-Gesicki is a 99th-percentile athlete, trailing only Vernon Davis in most athletic measures-turning his volume into a big play or two is easily within the young tight end's range of outcomes. If you're stacking Browns, you should be looking to bring it back with a Dolphin. Gesicki is set up to be the best option if Parker can't get open.

Defense

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh players are going to be chalky this week because of how much volume James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Dionate Johnson are leaving behind.

However, the Steelers are on the road against a division opponent without their starting:

Quarterback
Running Back
Wide Receiver
Second Wide Receiver

Their weapons are incredibly depleted which could hamstring their offense away from the comforts of Heinz Field.

That would make the Bengals an interesting play alone. In addition to this, the Bengals are also cheap, making the defense a great way to free up the cap needed to roster costly players like Alvin Kamara.