Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 18

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan Jen’s DFS Journal – Wildcard Weekend

Oh, baby, it’s a wild(card) world. Have we ever seen a season where there is so much competition in one conference and so little in the other? The path to the Super Bowl through the AFC seems like a cakewalk compared to the NFC. There were some tough breaks for Oakland, Houston, and Miami. It is also never fair playing in a conference when you have to face Tom Brady and Bill Belechick.

This week, I am going to use our FanDuel Optimizer (http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/lineup-generator-fanduel.cfm) to treat Wildcard Weekend like an all-EXCLUSIVE vacation. With some ugly options on the board I am going to approach my roster construction by eliminating those players I want zero exposure to. Here are some thoughts on some of the players I am fading, and some of the results of those fades.

QB, Connor Cook - $6,100 / Brock Osweiler - $6,700
Cook is making history this weekend, and not in a good way. He is the first rookie quarterback ever to make his debut in a playoff game. As much of a history buff as I am, that is not the side of history I want to be on. His lack of experience simply cannot be understated. Buried deep on the depth chart since training camp, he has barely touched the ball and took his first professional snap in Week 17. I want nothing to do with him or the opposing quarterback, Osweiler. He has been simply terrible and I will not waste daily dollars on him. If I am looking for a low-owned quarterback to diversify with, I am doing that with Matthew Stafford.

RB, Thomas Rawls - $7,100 / Alex Collins - $5,800 / Rashad Jennings - $5,400
The Seattle backfield effectively cancels each other out. Outside of Rawls 106 yard game in Week 13 he his highest rushing total this season was 67 yards. Over the past two games, he has been out-snapped and out-scored by Alex Collins. I am fading the Seattle backfield entirely. Jennings may be a touchdown threat, but I would much rather pay the extra $500 and roster Paul Perkins at $5,900.

WR, DeAndre Hopkins - $7,400 / Amari Cooper - $6,500 / DeVante Parker - $6,000
I know it is crazy to fade Hopkins, but really it is Osweiler and Hopkins price tag that I am off this week. I fear the Houston/Oakland matchup being the lowest scoring game of the slate, which is why I am fading Cooper at his price as well. As for Parker, while I do feel there is a chance that one can come back to bite me, my logic in excluding him is that I do not want him eating into my Kenny Stills exposure. He is a player I feel I can do without in order to up my Stills shares.

TE, Will Tye - $4,600 / Jesse James - $4,500 / Xavier Grimble - $4,500
If Ladarius Green was playing today I would have some exposure to him. Since he will be inactive I will have no exposure to the tight ends on the Pittsburgh Steelers. I do not want to bank on a touchdown from one of these guys to get me points and feel good about fading them entirely and the same logic applies to the Giants tight ends. This will allow me to have exposure to tight ends elsewhere, and I feel more confident in taking on shot on Dion Sims’ upside than any of the three tight ends mentioned above.

As for defense and kicker, I will not exclude any player. Variance with these two positions is fine for me and I would rather not exclude any in order to maximize my diversity. By fading the players I mentioned, here is my ownership at each position, courtesy of our Lineup Generator:

Final Thoughts

I am going to roll with everything the optimizer spit out. My Roethlisberger and Miller exposure is dangerous and I am disappointed in my Zenner and Tate ownership, but I have successfully excluded all of the players I have no interest in this week. This should be fun/tilting! Same thing, right?