DFS Pivot Plays week 4 2018

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.

Quarterback


Chalk

Andy Dalton $5,400 at Atlanta Falcons


I am expecting Dalton to be popular this week, as there is some buzz surrounding him throughout the industry. He is off to a solid start this season, with 860 passing yards and eight touchdowns through the first three games, averaging over 20 DKFP per game. This contest has one of the higher over/under’s of the week, so that will naturally draw attention. Not to mention, the Falcons are ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass. They are also allowing the fourth most DKFP per game to opposing signal callers, while yielding 848 passing yards and six passing touchdowns. Lastly, this is a tough price to pass up on for Dalton in a situation like the one at hand. There is certainly plenty to like about him this week, making him a very popular option.

Pivot

Eli Manning $5,600 vs. New Orleans Saints

I expressed my love for Eli Manning in this week’s Stack Em Up article this week. From what I am seeing, it does not appear that he will be all that popular, which is understandable considering how average he has been this season and how volatile he has been throughout his career. That said, this is a great spot for him against a Saints defense that ranks last in DVOA against the pass. This unit has allowed 1,037 passing yards and a league high 10 passing touchdowns, and are also yielding the most DKFP per game (34.6). This game is not too far behind the Falcons/Bengals game as far as implied totals, as the over/under for the Saints/Giants game is at a healthy 51.5 points. Pivoting from Dalton to Manning is something I will be strongly considering this week because there is as much upside for Manning in this spot and his ownership will likely be a fraction of Dalton’s. Sign me up!

Running Backs


Chalk

Giovani Bernard $6,300 at Atlanta Falcons

Full disclosure, Bernard chalk is good chalk this week and one I am willing to eat. He draws a great matchup against the Falcons who are known to struggle immensely against pass catching backs. Atlanta’s defense have allowed the most receptions (36) and the second most receiving yards (255) to opposing backs, while yielding the second most fantasy points per game. This unit also ranks last in DVOA against the run. Bernard is filling in for the injured Joe Mixon and last week he did a great job doing so, rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. He also caught 5-of-9 for 25 yards and scored 19.6 DKFP in last week’s game against the Panthers. He was on the field in 88 percent of the offensive snaps and accounted for 20 percent of the target share in that contest, so his role his significant when Mixon is out. I expect a similar workload and potentially a similar output, with a much higher ceiling this week. Do not overthink this and just plug him in.

Pivot

Lamar Miller $5,000 at Indianapolis Colts

Miller was a pivot play for me last week and I think he makes for a fine pivot play again this week. He is coming off of a solid fantasy performance, scoring 15.1 DKFP. He ran for just 10 yards on 10 carries, but did catch 5-of-6 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. The opportunities continue to be there and although he has not taken full advantage of his situation, it is only a matter of time before he has a big performance. This could be the week as the Colts are allowing the seventh most DKFP per game. They have surrendered 28 receptions (third most) for 241 yards and 257 rushing yards with two touchdowns to opposing backs. Miller’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield, put him in a good position to find success in this contest. The Texans are also favored here, so the game script plays into his favor. In addition, Miller has had plenty of success against the Colts, averaging 4.9 yards per carry in seven games against them and scoring five touchdowns. He has not flashed a lot of upside, but his role is solidified and the situation is favorable.

Wide Receivers


Chalk

Sterling Sheppard $4,900 vs. New Orleans Saints

I fully expect for Shepard to be the most popular, if not one of the more popular wide outs this week, and rightfully so. Evan Engram will miss this contest with an MCL sprain and that should really boost Shepard’s involvement in the offense. As it is, Shepard accounts for 17 percent of the target share for the Giants, as well as 30 percent of the red zone targets (tied for first in team). This is a great matchup for him as the Saints have allowed the most receiving yards, most touchdowns, and are also yielding the most DKFP per game to wide outs. He is expected to draw one-on-one coverage from P.J. Williams who grades out well below average on PFF, a matchup Shepard has a 21 percent advantage rating in. He is coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 20 DKFP after catching six passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. I fully expect Shepard to pick up where he left off last week. His price tag is far too low and the matchup does not get much better than this, not to mention, his workload should increase and the game script plays into his favor. What is there not to like?

Pivot

Mike Williams $4,500 vs. San Francisco 49ers


If you want to fade Shepard (I don’t recommend it), Williams is a possible pivot from him. So far this season, Williams has been very efficient, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each game. He has caught 11 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns through the first three weeks and accounts for 14 percent of the Chargers’ target share. In addition, he accounts for 18.8 percent of the red zone target share. This is a favorable matchup for Williams against the 49ers who are yielding over 40 DKFP per game to receivers and his one-on-one matchup against Jimmie Ward is one of the better matchups on the slate as Ward grades out poorly on PFF. Williams actually has a 16 percent advantage rating here. There are plenty of receivers in this price range that will be more popular than Williams, making him an intriguing tournament pivot with plenty of upside.

Tight Ends


Chalk

Rob Gronkowski $7,000 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Lions did a good job taming the beast last week, but Gronkowski finds himself in a potential smash spot against the Dolphins who are known to struggle against tight ends. He has a strong history against Miami, scoring eight touchdowns in 11 career games against them, averaging 62.5 receiving yards per game. So far this season, the Dolphins have given up 15 receptions for 186 yards to tight ends. Gronk started off the season with a huge performance, scoring 27.3 DKFP, showing his upside, but has followed it up with two poor performances. That said, history shows he has completely dominated this defense and this is a solid matchup for a potential bounce back game, making him a popular play this week. I will likely fade this chalk, but even if I do end up with some Gronk, I will definitely be underweight.

Pivot

Ben Watson $3,300 at New York Giants

You might be sick of hearing me talk about Watson this week or reading about him, but I really like the idea of spending down at tight end this week to find differentiation in my lineups and the $3,700 savings I get from Gronk to Watson allows me to do a lot with my lineup. Watson draws a matchup against the Giants who have been decent against tight ends this season, but then again, have not really faced an imposing tight end. Not that Watson is a major threat by any means, but he is arguably the best tight end they have faced this season. Last year it was a thing to pick on the Giants defense with a tight end regardless of who it was because of how bad they were. I am going to test that this week because I do not think they are all that improved. Watson’s targets are trending in the right direction and he is coming off of his best game of the season. He may not offer the highest upside at this point in his career, but this is a game where he should be able to outperform this cheap price tag and provide solid returns on investment.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal