DFS Targets DraftKings week 18 2018
The NFL regular season is behind us and now it is time to focus on the post season. Typically I write a flex target article which points out players I am considering at my flex slot, but since it is the playoffs and there are fewer teams playing, I will just focus on players in general to target this weekend. Let’s jump right into it.
Tarik Cohen $5,400 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Cohen draws a nice matchup this week against an Eagles defense that struggled immensely against pass catching backs. Philadelphia allowed 110 receptions (tied 2nd most) for 844 receiving yards (6th most) and four touchdowns (tied 3rd most) to the position. Cohen finished top six in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns among running backs, while averaging 5.7 targets per game. Towards the end of the season, the Bears were leaning a bit more on Jordan Howard (who is also in play), but Eagles are solid against the run. For the exception of some bad games against elite backs, this unit has been very good actually. Cohen offers a nice combination of a solid floor with a nice ceiling at a very reasonable price and in a plus matchup.
Chris Carson $6,800 at Dallas Cowboys
Carson ended the season with multiple strong performances and receiving plenty of volume. In his last four games, he had 20 or more touches and at least one touchdown in each game, and rushed for over 100 yards in each of his final three contests. During that four game stretch, he averaged a healthy 4.96 yards per carry. The Seahawks are on the road and slight dogs, which sets up for a potential negative game script for Carson, however, it is worth noting that they have gone from 2.5 point underdogs, to just a one point dog, and their implied team total has increased by two points since it opened. The Cowboys were stingy against the run this season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, but in the last three weeks of the regular season, they were a tad more generous, giving up 4.5 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns. Not many backs on this slate receive the workload that Carson does and despite the subpar matchup, he has shown to be efficient and productive. This game should stay close and he should receive a heavy dosage of carries, making him someone I am intrigued by this weekend.
Tyler Lockett $5,300 at Dallas Cowboys
It looks like Lockett will avoid coverage by Byron Jones this weekend, putting him in a good spot. Lockett lined up in the slot this season 51 percent of the time, where Jones lineup up just five percent of the time. This means that Lockett will see Chidobe Awuzie instead, who grades out average on Pro Football Focus and a matchup that Lockett has a five percent advantage rating in. The Seahawks are a run first team and Lockett is not a high-volume receiver, but he was very efficient scoring touchdowns with 10 this season, which accounts for 29 percent of Russell Wilson’s touchdown passes. This game is expected to be competitive with just a 2.5 point spread, and it also has the second highest over/under on the slate. This sets up to be a positive situation for him at a fair price.
Allen Robinson $5,600 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Robinson’s production was inconsistent for most of the season, however, the volume was pretty consistent for most of the year. He led the team in targets (94) and receiving yards (754). This week he draws one of the better matchups on the board. The Eagles surrendered 239 receptions (3rd most), 3,082 receiving yards (3rd most), and 16 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide outs this year, while allowing the third most DKFP per game. Avonte Maddox, who has an average grade on Pro Football Focus, will cover Robinson in a matchup that he has a seven percent advantage rating in. Robinson saw no less than seven targets in any of his last four games in the regular season and if he sees that type of volume this week, he will be in a good position to blow this price tag out of the water.
Eric Ebron $5,200 at Houston Texans
Ebron faces off against a Texans defense that he fared well against this season. In two meeting against Houston, he caught 9-of-18 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns, scoring at least 15 DKFP in each game. The Texans defense struggled all year against opposing tight ends, allowing 90 receptions (3rd most), 1,013 receiving yards (8th most), and eight receiving touchdowns (tied 4th most) to the position, while yielding the fourth most DKFP per game. Ebron has been a scoring machine this season with 14 touchdowns and finished the year off with 110 targets, so the opportunity for a big game is going to be there for him. This is a prime spot and he should be able to take advantage of the matchup. I like him in all formats this week.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal