Super Bowl LI Prop Bets

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan The biggest game of the year is finally upon us. Unless you took advantage of the Bowl Games slate last weekend, chances are you will not have any daily fantasy action going on this weekend. However, that does not mean that there is a lack of action out there. Anyone who works in an office was probably offered to buy a square or a box in a pool. Maybe you do not work in an office, and you still want to have some fun this Super Bowl Sunday.

Prop betting is exactly that for me – fun! I am a self-professed lover of gambling, and jokingly refer to myself as a deJENerate. Sports betting is a love that has been passed down to me by the women who have come before me, and I truly believe it is in my DNA. Prop betting takes sports betting to a whole other level. I do a decent amount of player prop betting during the season, and it is a great way to gage how many receiving yards a certain player will have, how many times a running back will touch the ball, how many yards a quarterback may throw, etc. Odds makers are sharp and tend to know what they are doing. Sports odds can be applied logically to redraft and daily fantasy. However, as I mentioned, I am here for the fun.

This Super Bowl, like every Super Bowl over the past few seasons, I will be having some fun with prop bets. I will give you some insight into my bets and show you the fun I intend on having. This is not an endorsement. I do not recommend you make any of the bets I am having. This is my fun to have, but if you want to create your own fun, don’t let me stop you. Here are the bets I have placed for the big game this weekend.

Player Props

I am not just throwing caution to the wind here and randomly banging on my keyboard. I do put some research into the available lines. Player props can be tough because they are tight. An example of this would be Julio Jones receiving line for this weekend, which is at 96.5, and has -110 odds on both the over and the under. While I do have a strong feeling on his yardage and feel he will go over the century mark, the odds aren’t great. I found some player odds that I do like:

Risk To Win Wager
$10.00 $11.00 D.Freeman rush attempts/. Over 13½ +110
$10.00 $10.50 L.Blount rush attempts/. Over 14½ +105
$10.00 $14.00 C.Hogan scores a TD +140
$10.00 $32.50 M.Butler intercepts a pass +325
$10.00 $14.50 T.Brady throws an interception +145
$50.00 $82.50

I believe running backs will be the difference maker in this game on both sides of the ball. The New England Patriots will have their hands full with the passing attack, as will the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams will need to slow the other down, and a great way to do that is to run the ball.

LeGarrette Blount – rush attempts over 14.5 +105: Over his past seven games, including the playoffs, Blount has averaged 15.86 rush attempts per game, so the odds are slightly in his favor. He has had less than 14 carries in three of the Patriots last seven games, including two playoff games where he had 15 carries combined. This will be a close one, but I like Blount to go over.

Devonta Freeman – rush attempts over 13.5 +110: The same logic applies to Freeman as to Blount, in that I fully expect both running backs to carry the ball early and often. Both backs have teammates they share a backfield with that they will compete with for carries, but I prefer the odds on both backs to handle the majority of the carries, while their teammates handle the passing duties.

Chris Hogan Scores a TD +140: Hogan is going to be the star of this game and you will see this is only the first of three Hogan props I will have. I’d like to think I caught the odds maker sleeping here when he gave Hogan these odds, as I suspect he is a lock to hit pay dirt.

Malcolm Butler interception +325: Getting a pick in the Super Bowl is Butler’s claim to fame, and I love the payout on him picking a pass again in this Super Bowl. He led the Patriots with four interceptions this season, and he will make it a fifth on the big stage.

Tom Brady throws an interception +145: After that Butler pick, the Falcons are going to need to get one back. I cannot say for sure who will pick Brady, but I like the odds on one of the Falcons stealing one from him.

1st to Score Props

Risk To Win Wager
$10.00 $80.00 J.Edelman scores first TD +800
$10.00 $120.00 325 C.Hogan scores first TD +1200
$10.00 $120.00 M.Sanu scores first TD +1200
$10.00 $250.00 A.Hooper scores first TD +2500
$10.00 $350.00 M.Ryan scores first TD +3500
$10.00 $40.00 #11 #12 #15 #19 #29 #33 #80 #88 Player not on list scores first TD +400
$10.00 $72.00 #2 #11 #12 #18 #24 #26 #81 ATL player not on list scores first TD +720
$70.00 $1,032.00

I am an impatient gambler and prefer immediate action. I could be that there will be a score in the first minute of the game, but I prefer the idea of spreading out some money over who will score first. There are no sure things in football, but we do know for sure points will be put on the board, it is just a matter of who will be responsible for those first points. Looking at the table above, you can see there are some really fun payouts for the first score. Arguably the most fun is the idea of Matt Ryan, down in the red zone, running one in. This would net me a cool $350.00 and that single bet would make the day profitable for me. As you can see, I have doubled down on Chris Hogan as well and will be paid twice if he scores the first touchdown. In the most minimal hedge I can think of, I also placed a small wager on a handful of players -not getting in the end zone first, in the event that we see someone totally random score or a field goal be put up first.

Final Score Props

Risk To Win Wager
$10.00 $65.00 NE wins by exactly 3 points +650
$10.00 $190.00 NE wins by exactly 4 points +1900
$10.00 $85.00 ATL wins by exactly 3 points +850
$10.00 $260.00 ATL wins by exactly 4 points +2600
$40.00 $600.00

Research was involved in many of my bets, and a particular statistic stood out to me that I came across this week. Since 2002, the New England Patriots have appeared in six Super Bowls. While that is impressive, what I find even more impressive is the fact that each of their Super Bowls have been decided by either three or four points. You are reading that correctly; all six Super Bowls the Patriots played in this century had either a three or four point margin. As you can see, I am not one to bet against history, and I took that bet on both sides of the ball, all of which have decent payouts.

Wacky Wagers

Risk To Win Wager
$5.00 $45.00 Game goes to overtime +900
$5.00 $22.00 "Houston we have a problem" said on TV +440
$5.00 $57.50 A fan illegally enters field of play +1150
$5.00 $21.25 Excessive celebration penalty occurs +425
$5.00 $35.00 Donald Trump picks ATL to win +700
$5.00 $150.00 C.Hogan wins Super Bowl MVP +3000
$30.00 $330.75

This is my favorite part. This is where I take advantage of the ridiculous offerings and throw a few dollars around at things that could happen, and if they did, not only would I win money but I would surely get a good laugh out of them. In terms of silly, this is really just the tip of the ice berg. You can blow money on the National Anthem, Lady Gaga’s hair color, and countless other wacky wagers. I chose the wacky wagers I did for a few reasons.

Game goes to overtime +900: We will be without football for a few, hard months. I already miss it, which is exactly why I am rooting for overtime.

“Houston we have a problem” said on TV +440: The announcers simply will not be able to help themselves. They have been preparing for over a year for the Super Bowl, hosted in Houston. This may be the bet I am most confident in.

A fan illegally enters field of play +1150: We just saw Ezekiel Elliott take down a field crasher at the Pro Bowl. There is no bigger stage for someone to get their 15 minutes of fame than the Super Bowl. If someone is sly enough to get past security, I’ll collect $57.50.

Excessive celebration penalty occurs +425: We will not see this out of a New England Patriot, but remember that interception I bet on Tom Brady throwing earlier? Imagine that interception goes for a pick six? The lucky defender and his teammates will lose their minds, someone will either rip off their helmet or throw themselves on the floor. When the yellow flag is thrown, I will celebrate as well.

Donald Trump picks ATL to win: I was raised not too talk politics and this is about as political as you will ever see me get. I am aware Trump has close ties to the entire Patriots organization, but there is reasoning behind Trump picking Atlanta. I think it is a coin flip on who will actually win the Super Bowl, and Trump’s ego is far too large for him to admit defeat. If Atlanta wins, he will maintain this was his pick all along. Trump will stick to whoever wins was his pick. Anything else is simply fake news.

Chris Hogan wins Super Bowl MVP +3000: This is a fate bet for me. I mentioned earlier that Hogan is going to be the one that breaks this game open. I think he will lead the Patriots in receiving yards and touchdowns. If he happens to bring in a game winner on a bomb from Tom Brady, he will solidify himself as the Super Bowl MVP.

Gambling (responsibly) is a lot of fun for me. As you can see, I am risking less than $200 to win, in total, over $2,000. Sports are entertainment and betting on the Super Bowl is the crown jewel of entertainment for me. The game is that much more enjoyable when I can cheer for Freeman to get that 14th carry, or for some drunk lunatic to run onto the field. Good luck this weekend if you plan on joining me in prop betting festivities!