Jens DFS Journal 2017 week 2

By Jen Ryan
Jen Ryan Recently, we took a look at 2017 DraftKings salary pricing value and deficiency compared to 2016 average salary (you can find that article here: http://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy-football-columns/html/week-1-draftkings-pricing--value-and-deficiency-vs-2016-average.cfm ). Pricing constraints and finding value within those constraints are the tricky part of this game. Tracking and analyzing weekly salary price changes are just one of the pieces to the daily fantasy puzzle that we try to put together each week. There are a ton of aspects to consider when constructing daily rosters. Salary and sportsbooks are just two of the many factors that I like to pay attention to each week.

Comparing price jumps with price drops can give us an idea of who we may want to avoid or target in our lineups when considering cost. Since DFS is a game of extremes, the sample we will work with is the top ten players with the largest salary price jumps and drops in order to work with opposite sides of the extremes spectrum

There are a few things to consider out of these 20 players. Let’s players with price jumps first.

wk2 dfs price jumps.png

Pay Jumps


• Ertz ($5,300) will cost you if you want him. A road dog with a decent point total, Ertz and the Eagles could be in a shootout here. His co-led the Eagles (with Nelson Agholor) in targets last week with eight.
• Crabtree ($7,100) is a thousand dollars cheaper than his teammate Cooper ($8,100). Home favorites by a whopping 13.5 points will have me both off of them and leaning more towards the running backs.
• Cohen ($4,100) is still cheap despite the increase, and the game script favors him a bit this week. If he is indeed the passing-down back of the committee, he should be utilized often as the Bears are road dogs in Tampa, who are favored by seven points.
• Allen ($4,100) is in a similar committee situation as Cohen. He is still affordable, but rather than playing from behind we could benefit from some mop up duty like we saw last week.
• Carson ($4,100) is in an even more similar situation to Allen. Seattle are home favorites by a whopping (another one!) 13.5 points and once Thomas Rawls is done running all over San Francisco, Carson could be called in as the closer.
• Williams ($4,800) I am avoiding all together. This backfield is far too muddy and with the Cardinals as 7.5 point favorites, I don’t see Bruce Arians risking injury to his “starting running back”. If the Cardinals have the game in hand by the second half we could see more Andre Ellington/Chris Johnson and less Williams.
• Hunt ($6,800) jumped up $1,000 and will continue to get more and more expensive if he continues to play even close to what he did in Week 1. The Eagles are a tough matchup, but Andy Reid feeds his RB1 and the volume will be there. Pay for Hunt now before he creeps towards $8,000 status.
• Gillislee ($5,700) has the fantasy-privilege of playing in the Super Dome this weekend, the stadium where points are plentiful. The Patriots are favorites but with a league-high 54.5 points who cares. I am not saying Gillislee will score three touchdowns again this week but I am saying there is a good chance he scores two (and he is cheaper than both hunt and Gurley).
• Gurley ($6,800) was a solid play for me last week but I won’t be getting back on board this week. The Rams are oddly favored by 2.5 points which implies a shootout. I prefer Ram receivers to Gurley this week.

Price Drops



wk2 dfs price drops.png

• Hilton ($5,300) terrifies people without Luck and is even more terrifying with Patrick Peterson on the other side of the ball. He has the largest price drop this week and it is tempting, but wait until next week. Peterson will shut Hilton down and his price could drop to a career-low. That also gives now-starter Jacoby Brissett another week to develop a rapport with him.
• Murray ($6,300) is definitely a discount I am taking advantage of. Tennessee looked slow last week and Murray had a curiously-low 12 carries. I expect the volume to swing back in his favor this week against a tough Jacksonville defense on the road in a game where Tennessee is favored by just 1.5 points.
• Watkins ($5,200) is my favorite play of the price drop players. His 5-51 stat line on five targets last week got lost in the Cooper Kupp hype. The only thing that really separated these two was 18 yards and a score. The Rams will be in a home shootout against the Washington Redskins this weekend. They are favored by 2.5 points and the game has a respectable 46 point total.
• There is not much to say about Moncreif ($4,000) or Hunter ($3,000) so I won’t waste your time. Just don’t.
• Bryant ($6,600) has another tough cornerback matchup this week against the Denver Broncos and Aquib Talib. Janoris Jenkins kept Bryant in check last week and if Talib keeps him in check this week we will probably see him on this list again in Week 3. He did have three targets from the goal, and for that fact along could be a GPP play at most.
• Taylor ($5,300) is a super contrarian QB play this week against at the Carolina Panthers, if you are looking to fade the chalky Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan plays with insane point totals. If I am not paying up at QB I will consider low exposure to Taylor for his rushing upside.
• Unless there is a surprise announcement in the Ezekiel Elliott matter you aren’t considering McFadden ($5,200), who was inactive last week (are they preserving him in the event Elliott does serve his suspension?). Lacy ($4,200) is Trent Richardson 2.0 at this point and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he wasn’t on this team in a few weeks.
• Britt ($4,000) is right up there with Watkins for me in terms of exposure of players with price drops that I want a piece of. I won’t overreact to the surprising three targets he had in Week 1. The Browns are on the road against a heavily-favored (7.5) Baltimore Ravens team this week. They just got done making the Cincinnati Bengals look like a JV team and could do the same to the Browns, but I am looking for some Britt garbage time here as a tournament play.
My thoughts being relayed relate to salary and betting lines. Price jumps and drops are just a part of the process, as well as paying attention to the odds makers. Some of these players I will avoid or roster, but their salary and lines are something I am considering when I build lineups this weekend, as with all players. These are just the guys who have the most extreme changes in pricing. Good luck this weekend, and be on the lookout for prop Tweets from me @FFdeJENerate!