DFS Pivot Plays week 5 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday slate.



Dak Prescott $6,800 vs. Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys and Packers game has the highest implied total of the slate and that alone draws plenty of attention from the crowd. Then you add a defense in Green Bay who tends to be vulnerable at times and you have got yourself a chalky quarterback. Not to mention, Prescott has played well this season from a fantasy standpoint, averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game and is also coming off of two consecutive 22+ fantasy point games where he scored three total touchdowns in each of those contests. Lastly, his price tag is not too high and it will not force you to get too creative with your roster construction, allowing you to fit a very solid lineup around him. I like Prescott this week and think he is in a fine spot, but in tournaments I will likely be underweight just because of the ownership that he will draw.


Carson Palmer $5,900 at Philadelphia Eagles

You might start noticing a trend from me and that is the fact that I like to target quarterbacks against the Eagles defense. Philadelphia is allowing 301 passing yards per game and has given up seven passing touchdowns. Palmer has also been playing well in recent games, throwing for over 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and has scored at least 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. I do not expect him to go entirely overlooked, but I do expect him to be far less owned the Prescott. I will admit that the one red flag for me is the Cardinals implied team total at just 19.25 points, however, I am going to trust the numbers for the Eagles defense here and invest some shares in Palmer this weekend. If both he and Prescott each score 20 fantasy points and Palmer is much less owned, you are already ahead of the field.

Running Backs


Ezekiel Elliott $8,800 vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have really struggled against the running back position this season, allowing 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and three rushing touchdowns during that stretch. Zeke is heating up, scoring three touchdowns in the last two games. He is much more involved in the passing game this season, with five targets in all but one game and averaging 4.8 targets per game. He also has 20+ touches in three of his four games this season, so the volume continues to be there to no surprise. Despite the high price tag, the favorable matchup and Vegas total are going to steer the crowd his way, making him one of the most, if not the most popular running back of the week.


Jay Ajayi $6,600 vs. Tennessee Titans

As a Dolphins fan, it has been tough to watch this offense play football, they have been atrocious. That said, this is their first home game of the season and I expect them to come out with a little more energy this week. Ajayi is no longer on the injury report for the Dolphins which is good news and faces off against a Titans defense that is giving up 116.8 total yards to running backs, while allowing four total touchdowns. This price tag just seems too cheap for the caliber of running back that Ajayi is and his recent struggles will keep people off of him. He is still that back that should get 20+ touches and offers plenty of upside. At this low price and potential low ownership, I am willing to take a chance on him in tournaments.

Wide Receivers


Dez Bryant $6,500 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Yes I clearly expect the Cowboys team to be very popular this week, hence why I have considered their star player at each position to be popular. I mean, this price on Bryant is just insane. How can he only be $6,500? Bryant has been peppered with 40 targets, which is good for 28 percent of the Cowboys target share, as well as 38.9 percent of the team’s red zone targets. He faces off against a Packers defense that is yielding over 29 fantasy points per game and he is projected to see a lot of Kevin King who Bryant has a 50 percent advantage rating against, according to Pro Football Focus. Bryant should feast in this matchup and could be one of the top scoring wide receivers this week. He will be chalky, but this is a spot I am willing to eat some chalk in.


Larry Fitzgerald $6,800 at Philadelphia Eagles

Chances are I will have exposure to both Bryant and Fitzgerald, but if you are trying to avoid Bryant in tournaments and are looking for someone in his price range, Fitzgerald makes sense. He faces off against an Eagles defense that is yielding 15.5 receptions, 209.3 receiving yards and over 40 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. He is projected to see plenty of Patrick Robinson, who Fitz has a 19 percent advantage rating against, according to Pro Football Focus. Fitzgerald has been peppered with 41 targets which is good for 22 percent of the target share in Arizona and accounts for 31.3 percent of the team’s red zone targets, while playing in 96 percent of the snaps. His price is a bit high, but that works in your favor if you are looking for a lower owned receiver in a favorable matchup in this price range. This is a way to pay up to be contrarian.

Tight Ends


Austin Seferian-Jenkins $3,500 at New York Jets

Seferian-Jenkins was suspended the first two games of the season, but since returning is averaging five targets per game and has a 90 percent catch rate. He gets a very good matchup against a Browns defense that has surrendered 370 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. In addition, they are giving up 7.5 receptions and over 18 fantasy points per game to the position. At this price and in this matchup, I expect him to draw plenty of ownership and rightfully so.


Jared Cook $3,900 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Cook is a very volatile play this week, especially if Derek Carr does not suit up. However, he did receive eight targets last week and is averaging 6.25 targets per game this season. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game against them and four touchdowns. Cook also has a five percent advantage rating in this contest, according to Pro Football Focus. He is going to go virtually unowned in this spot and offers similar upside to Seferian-Jenkins.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal