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Never-too-Early ADP Observations My First Draft of 2018 (2/16/18) Super Bowl LII Prop Betting (2/1/18) TNF Prop Betting Lines and DFS Implications (12/7/17) Target Leaders to target at trade deadline (11/17/17) Shoot for Upside in the Dallas Backfield week 10 2017 (11/10/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 6 2017 (10/12/17) Afternoon Slate Pays and Fades DSF wk5 (10/8/17) Targets and Snaps Week 5 2017 (10/6/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 5 2017 (10/4/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 4 2017 (9/28/17) Jens DFS Journal 2017 week 3 (9/22/17) Targets and Snaps Week 3 2017 (9/21/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 3 2017 (9/19/17) Jens DFS Journal 2017 week 2 (9/15/17) Target and Snap Analysis Week 2 2017 (9/14/17) Applying STOMP Fantasy Football Draft Theory and Analyzing the Results (9/8/17) Targets and Snaps Week 1 2017 (9/8/17) Week 1 DraftKings Pricing: Value and Deficiency vs 2016 Average (8/25/17) 2017 Football Diehards Staff Draft Analysis (8/18/17) Daily Fantasy Tips and Strategies 2017 (8/17/17) A Pre-Draft Look at Late Round Sleepers (4/27/17) Early MFL10 Observations (3/15/17) There is No Offseason MFL10s are Opening this Week (2/21/17) Super Bowl LI Prop Bets (2/2/17) DFS Lineup Optimizer Video fanduel wk20 2016 (1/21/17) Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 18 (1/7/17) Target and Snap Analysis Week 18 2016 (1/7/17)
DFS Lineup Optimizer Video fanduel wk14 2016
By Jen Ryan
Jen’s DFS Journal: Week 14
I’ve typically been a DraftKings player, for the most part. I have not been on FanDuel much this season for a few reasons, but I have come to realize that, for me, they have been sort of silly reasons. How can I pretend not to care about a kicker when Matt Prater put up 20 points last week? Why should I harp on lineup lock? Finally, half-point PPR should not be a deterrent, and I should look for an edge there.
Last week, Emil Kadlec and I did a short video showing all of the neat stuff our FanDuel optimizer can do. This week, I took the optimizer a step further and had some fun with the “download” button. By importing the 20 lineups generated into Excel,
I was able to do so much more with the results, and even tinker with the lineups a bit further.
Let’s take a look at one of my favorite lineups the generator spit out, as well as my overall ownership.
There are a few interesting things about this. As you can see from the ownership percentage column, I really like Russell Wilson, Dez Bryant, and T.Y. Hilton this week. There is an interesting name I am fading and that name is David Johnson.
Johnson has three straight weeks of 30+ points and that number just feels difficult to sustain given his salary. I have him in 5% of my lineups at the moment and will likely try to increase that a bit, but I do not see myself going over 10%.
Jacquizz Rodgers is interesting and is in over half of my lineups. The optimizer loved him this week and I agree.
Dez Bryant may feel like a homer pick, but I can assure you it is not. He has 27.3% of Dallas’ targets over the past three weeks and he has returned to WR1 status over that time. His pricing seems right at $7,800 as the WR16 this week, a position
I believe he will outperform.
Golden Tate is, shockingly, $6,300 and I plan to increase his 35% ownership on my overall 20 lineups. If I roll out a little more Tate and a little less Hilton and/or Bryant, I should be able to kick up that David Johnson ownership a bit.
Our Value Factor is something I particularly enjoy working with and as you can see above, this lineup has a total Value Factor of 14.9. By looking at the 20 lineups generated, I have a few that have gone over 15 and that seems to be a hard number to hit, so I am definitely comfortable with this 14.9 being super close to 15.
Below is my current ownership of all players across the 20 lineups generated:
Again, these numbers may change by tomorrow, but you can get a good idea of players the generator gave me. By downloading the results in Excel, I am able to further alter these lineups, balance or unbalance them, really do whatever I please. I encourage you to do the same and explore all the ways you can manipulate your lineups in Excel. We give you the option to download anywhere from 10 to 100 lineups, so get in there and have some fun!