Super Bowl LII Prop Betting

By Jen Ryan

$138,480,136. That’s how much money was wagered on the Super Bowl in 2017, up from $132,545,587 in 2016 and $115,986,086 in 2015. People (hi!) love betting on football, and there is no bigger stage to catch that thrill than Super Bowl Sunday. It is estimated that people bet as much money on the Super Bowl than they do the entire NCAA basketball tournament. This Sunday is the last chance for football betters to get in their last licks before the seven long months before live action kicks back up. This is why the money floods in.

On my preferred site to bet on, there are well over 1,000 bets that you could bet this Sunday. They range from your typical pick against the spread and over/under point total to how many times Donald Trump tweets during each quarter. It’s a crazy world out there in the land of prop betting, and I will get my share in of bets from both side of the normal to wild spectrum. Each bet I write about today I will be making. These are just a few of my favorites and by no means an endorsement of these bets. If you do dip in there to have some fun this weekend, make sure you degenerate responsibly.

Line Parlay

I’m a sucker for a parlay, which requires both outcomes to occur in order to win. I tend to stick with history and trends when choosing my overall outcome on the game. In their last eight Super Bowl appearances, the New England Patriots have covered twice and pushed once. If we count a push as a loss, which most books do, they are just 2-6 against the spread and are 50/50 on the over/under. Excluding 2017, Underdogs are have won against the spread in eight of the past nine Super Bowls. This game currently sits at the Patriots -4 with a 48.5 total. The Eagles just put up 38 points on a rather stout Vikings defense and the Patriots put up 35 and 24 points on the Titans and Jaguars respectively. I’ll bank on the Patriots not covering, yet again, and the over smashing.

Parlay Philadelphia Eagles +4 (-107) over 48.5 (-107). Risk $50.00 to win $137.13.

Player Props

The lines the bookmakers set on players are telling and hold value if you are hitting the daily fantasy slates this weekend. Player props range from sharp to random, and some sites even let you up the ante on player props. There are props at each position worth wagering on.

Quarterbacks:

* Tom Brady 294.5 yards (-110)
Brady averages 295.9 yards per game in his seven(!) Super Bowl appearances. This line is tight and if I’m going to risk money on Brady’s passing yards, I’m upping the ante here. He’s hit 350 yards just twice in the big game. Against the Carolina Panthers in Superbowl XXVIII, 61 points were scored where the line was 37.5. Brady threw for 354 yards. Against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, 62 points were scored where the line was 57.5. Brady threw for 466 yards.

Straight bet Brady 350 yards (+334). Risk $25.00 to win $108.74.
* Nick Foles 243.5 yards (-110)
I have no interest in betting Nick Foles in this game. He’s not a quarterback I’m comfortably wagering money on, but he is careful with the ball and I do like the line (+115) on him not throwing an interception if I were looking to wager on him, but I’m not.

Wide Receivers:

* Danny Amendola pass receptions over 4.5 (-125)
I was scouring the book for the Julian Edelman bet (½ carry) and am bummed it isn’t available for Amendola. It feels like the book is light on Amendola’s reception line here so this is another prop I am upping the ante on as well.

Amendola at least 6 receptions (+112) AND 7 receptions (+190). Risk $30.00 to win $75.45.

* Nelson Agholor receptions over 3.5 (-110)
I have been eyeing up Agholor as a wildcard in the Philadelphia offense this Sunday, and that quickly switched to confidence when I read this, from Evan Silva: “Patriots got drilled by slot WRs last 2 months. Nelson Agholor (90% slot) vs Eric Row will be Eagles most favorable passing-game matchup in SB52.” Enough said, Evan. I’ll take that stat and run with it, and nearly double down on Agholor’s receptions.

Agholor at least 6 receptions (+313). Risk $25.00 to win $103.49.

Running Backs:

* James White scores a TD in 1st half (+475)
Speaking of wildcards, hello James White. I’ll chase last year’s performance to an extent and bank on him scoring a touchdown, receiving or rushing, in the first half. That payout is too good to ignore.

White scores a TD in the 1st half (+475). Risk $25.00 to win $118.75

* LeGarrette Blount scores a TD in the 1st half (+435)
I’ll stay on narrative street here. Blount is going to score against his former team that he just won a ring with last year. If he scores at all in this game (+195) it is still a good bet, but I am going all in on these runnings backs getting off to a hot start early.

Blount scores a TD in the 1st half (+435). Risk $25.00 to win $108.75.

Tight Ends:

* Rob Gronkowski 1 TD (-153)
Gronk is a favorite to score in this game and with good reason. Why not bet the big guy to hit pay dirt twice*

Gronkowski at least 2 TD (+300). Risk $25.00 to win $100.00.
* Zach Ertz receiving yards 58.5 (-110)
Averaging 62.5 yards with Nick Foles under center during the playoffs this year, I am interested in this low-feeling line. It is not inconceivable that Ertz could go for over 90 yards in this game.

Ertz at least 91 receiving yards (+204) AND 106 receiving yards (+338). Risk $30.00 to win $111.45.

Wild Props

This is where the real fun is. There are too many to mention so I will go ahead and give you a few of my favorites.

* Pink goes airborne during Anthem (+475). Risk $10.00 to win $47.50.
Have you ever seen Pink perform* Just in case.
* Pink wears an Eagles shirt or hat (+210). Risk $10.00 to win $21.00.
Google where she is from.
* “Wardrobe Malfunction” said over 1.5 times (+560). Risk $10.00 to win $56.00.
It has to be mentioned at least once. Why not twice*
* Donovan McNabb SB 38 vomiting mentioned (+320). Risk $10.00 to win $32.00.
I’m not actually banking on this, but if it happens I’ll regret skipping the action way too much.
* Al or Cris say “GOAT” (+240). Risk $10.00 to win $24.00.
Al and Cris are pretty hip. There is a good chance they call Brady by his known alias.
* Al Michaels says “pointspread” (+500). Risk $10.00 to win $50.00.
It wouldn’t be the first time Al referred to gambling during a game. Why not the Super Bowl*
* Philadelphia scores a safety (+1450). Risk $10.00 to win $145.00.
This would be the luckiest $10.00 scratch off I’ve bought in a while.

Honorable mentions that will make you laugh, but I am staying away from:
* “Dilly” said over 18.5 times (-195)
* Peyton appears in over 2.5 commercials (+115)
* Any member of ‘NSYNC performs with Timberlake at halftime (+200)
* Player to call coin toss calls tails (+215)
* Bill Belichick not shown during Anthem (+420)

It is worth your time to head over to your favorite betting site and pour over the vast array of prop bets. They are all over the place and they can be a lot of fun, in addition to profitable. This is last call for us who love to bet on football. Do yourself a favor and hit a few, cheap wagers on Super Bowl futures on Super Bowl Monday. Good luck and be sure to tell me all about your bets on Twitter @FFdeJENerate.