As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper notes, the last four weeks have seen quarterback Josh Allen
flip back and forth between good and bad performances.
He completed 47 percent of his passes while losing a fumble in a 31-13 loss to the Eagles in Week Eight and then rebounded by hitting on 70 percent of his throws in a Week Nine win over Washington. Week 10 saw him run for two touchdowns, but his passing numbers dipped back down as the Bills slumped to a 19-16 loss to the Browns.
Last Sunday was another good day for Allen and the Bills. He completed over 63 percent of his passes, threw three touchdowns and ran for another in a 37-20 win over the Dolphins. While the inconsistent performances might suggest the team is still searching for a sense of its self offensively, Allen thinks the Miami game was a sign that they've found it.
"We really found our identity as an offense. We've got a good sense of who we are as a team," Allen said, via Syracuse.com. "We're gonna continue to roll with what we've been doing."
Allen's feelings should be put to the test down the stretch.
All six of their remaining opponents rank in the top half of the league
defensively and the Bills' ability to navigate those games will determine whether they have any chance of playing into January.
For the record, Allen dismissed questions about whether the offense can sustain its success over Miami, with Buffalo entering the most difficult portion of its schedule.
"I definitely don't think it's a one-time thing how we played. We have a good sense of who we are as a team," said Allen, who earned AFC offensive player of the week honors. "I really think we found our identity as an offense."
He did concede, "We have to go out and take it. The rest of the schedule, nothing is going to be handed to us."
That will be especially true this week.
As ESPN's Matthew Berry laid it out, only Russell Wilson
, Deshaun Watson
and Lamar Jackson
have more red-zone fantasy points this season than Allen, whose rushing scores always keep his floor high. But with Denver's defense allowing just 2.9 red zone drives per game (tied for sixth fewest in the NFL), expectations should be lowered this week.
Berry added the Broncos are allowing just 1.7 offensive TDs per game (only the Patriots and 49ers are allowing fewer), so this game understandably has one of the lowest over/unders on the slate.
Denver allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, so Berry have Allen outside his top 10. We still believe in Allen's floor, so you'll find him at No. 10 on the FSP Staff Cheatsheet
Beyond that, with Frank Gore
still around to get just enough work to be annoying for the fantasy prospects of Devin Singletary
, Berry contends the biggest issue with Singletary has been the lack of scoring.
When they get in close, Allen has seven red zone rushing touchdowns on just 14 carries. All the Bills RBs combined are 4-for-29 in that same stat. And Berry doesn't believe it will get much better this weekend against a Broncos defense that is the second-best red zone defense and allows just 3.9 yards per carry this season (seventh lowest).