DFS Pivot Plays week 16 2018

Determining ownership on a weekly basis can be challenging for the most part, but it is an important thing to consider when creating your lineups in tournaments. That said, in cash games, ownership does not play a big role in your decision making.

Popular plays are referred to as the chalk, which can be defined as a popular player that will be highly owned. Generally these players are considered must starts by the general consensus. A pivot play are players that will be less owned than the chalk, in a similar price range, and offering similar upside. These pivots are used to be contrarian and built unique lineups with differentiation. When you pivot to a player who is far less owned, the chances of leap frogging in tournament standings are higher, which increases your chances for potentially higher scores.

Each and every week, I will be identifying potential chalk and providing readers with a pivot play on the main slate. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.
 

Quarterback

Chalk

Deshaun Watson $6,500 at Philadelphia Eagles

Chalk
Watson is projected to be popular this week, which sort of surprises me. That said, he does get a very nice matchup against the Eagles defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the pass. This unit is yielding 298 passing yards and over 20 DKFP per game to opposing signal callers. Watson does not sling it a ton, but this week they will be without Lamar Miller and the Eagles are a solid run defense, so the Texans may have to rely a bit more on his arm. He is also a running threat, creating a higher floor and more upside. I liked Watson a ton heading into the week and that has not changed. This is a great matchup and a favorable game environment. In my opinion this is good chalk.

Pivot

Baker Mayfield $6,100 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mayfield draws a very nice matchup this week against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass. Cincinnati has allowed 3,953 passing yards (4th most) and 28 passing touchdowns (tied 3rd most), while giving up the most DKFP per game to the position. Under the new coaching staff, Mayfield has played much better and has looked very comfortable running the offense. Several weeks ago, he faced off against this defense and was able to pick them apart, throwing for 258 yards and four touchdowns, scoring 25.9 DK points. Mayfield is not expected to be all that popular this week, as Nick Chubb will exhaust most of the ownership from this offense, making Mayfield a nice pivot play off of Watson, as well as a leverage play for the Browns offense.

Running Backs

Chalk

Marlon Mack $5,500 vs. New York Giants
Full disclosure, Mack is chalk I am eating this week, as he is one of my favorite point per dollar plays this week. He had a nice performance last week and should be able to put together another strong outing. He draws a nice matchup here against the Giants who are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry to opposing backs, while yielding 17 total touchdowns to the position. The game script should also play into Mack’s favor this week, as the Colts are 10 point favorites at home. Mack struggled after some strong mid-season performances, but he did draw some tougher matchups, which is not the case this week. Considering his upside and the potential workload this week, he is a viable option in all formats.

Pivot

Sony Michel $4,900 vs. Buffalo Bills
Michel is just too cheap this week and although there is some risk with him, he offers a great amount of upside, especially at his price. Last week he only logged 13 carries, but a lot of that had to do with the game script because in his previous three games, he had no less than 17 carries in each contest. The Patriots are heavy favorites this week, so this should be a good game script for Michel and I expect that he will be fed the ball here. The matchup is also a very good one, as they are yielding 93.4 rushing yards and 27.7 fantasy points per game since Week 7, as well as 4.2 yards per carry. Michel is expected to be overlooked, making him a very intriguing tournament pivot off of Mack and a tournament play in general

Wide Receivers

Chalk

Robby Anderson $4,500 vs. Green Bay Packers
Anderson is projected to be one of the more popular receivers on the slate and understandably so. In his last three games, Anderson has been peppered with 25 targets, catching 15 of them for 220 yards and two touchdowns. This is a good matchup for him, as the Packers have been very generous to opposing receivers this season. Green Bay has allowed 179 receptions for 2,393 yards (9th most) and 20 receiving touchdowns (2nd most), while yielding the fourth most DKFP per game. Being that they are home underdogs this week, the Jets should be slinging it this week, which is good news for Anderson. He is too cheap considering his price, usage, and upside, hence why he will be popular. I anticipate that I will have exposure to Anderson this week, but I am contemplating to be under weight.

Pivot

Demaryius Thomas $4,700 at Philadelphia Eagles
Keke Coutee has already been ruled out this week, which should continue to create more opportunity for Thomas. In the last two games, Thomas has been peppered with 14 targets. He has not done much with them, but it is nice to see him receiving this amount of looks. The one-on-one matchup against De'Vante Bausby is phenomenal, as Bausby ranks well below average on Pro Football Focus and Thomas has a 20 percent advantage rating. As a team, the Eagles have been awful as well, they have given up the most receptions, most receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns to wide outs, while yielding the second most fantasy points per game. I cannot trust Thomas in cash, but I do like the idea of taking a shot at him in tournaments if you want to move off of the popular Anderson.

Tight Ends

Chalk

Zach Ertz $5,900 vs. Houston Texans
Ertz is projected to be one of the higher owned tight ends this week. He faces off against the Texans who rank 29th in DVOA against tight ends. Houston has surrendered 70 receptions (tied 8th most), 841 receiving yards (11th most), and six receiving touchdowns (tied 4th most), while surrendering over 13 DKFP per game to opposing tight ends. Ertz saw seven targets with Nick Foles under center last week, which was good for 23 percent of the market share. The Texans have been tough against the run, allowing over 100 rushing yards to running backs just three times this season, so the Eagles could be forced to pass in this contest, which benefits Ertz. There is plenty to like about him this week, which is why it makes sense that he will likely be highly owned.

Pivot

David Njoku $3,800 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Njoku draws a very nice matchup this week against a weak Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks 16th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and they are yielding the second most DKFP per game to the position. This unit has allowed 77 receptions (3rd most), 901 receiving yards (7th most), and nine receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the league) to the tight end position. Although Njoku has not been productive in recent games, he is still receiving a decent amount of looks, with at least four targets in the last four games. He was productive the last time he faced this defense several weeks ago, catching all five of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. I like the idea of pivoting from the expensive Ertz to a cheaper tight end such as Njoku in tournaments. The upside is there for Njoku, but he is also much more volatile than Ertz.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal