Current MFL10 Flexibility Trendspotting

By Tod Burros
Tod Burros As I mentioned I am older than most of you who probably will read this. One of the key lessons I have learned through experience is the difference between saying something and the willingness to do it. I mean change is hard and not everyone is cut out for it. One of the best practices I have found in life and one of the hardest ones for people to do in practice is having the flexibility to change ones plans and strategies when new evidence presents itself. But those who are flexible in mind and able to change as needed greatly increase their chance for success

In MFL10’s the market is always changing based on big events like free agency or the draft and then of course later training camp and pre-season games. So adapting our strategies and not sticking with the strategy that made sense to us at first becomes crucial. Therefore I am writing this article because I am finding that I need to understand and adapt my strategy now 3 weeks after the NFL draft

My Pre-Draft Fantasy Football MFL10 strategy

My pre-draft MFL10 strategy was based off of two things I had learned from early drafting
1- The RB position was fraught with questions after the top 6-8 backs
2- I was finding amazing value at WR late in drafts

I think by now everyone realizes the trend in the NFL to have RB by committee with lots of role players filling in spots. Well pre-draft that is what led to so many questions in that both the backs on rosters and not knowing where the rookies would be drafted left the position a minefield. So my first strategy was to take as many “safe” RB as I could in the first 10 rounds to get to my 5 or so backs I want at least in most MFL10’s. For certain I was not comfortable using a Zero RB strategy. And after the 10th round there were just so many questions about all the RB it really was like throwing darts blindfolded

On the other hand I was finding these WR readily available to draft after the 10th rd allowed me to stock up on some really good best ball WR’s. Guys who have the ability to have 3-4 outstanding weeks a year because they catch long passes often for TD. Guys like Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, Ted Ginn, Taylor Gabriel and some other really solid #2 WR like Adam Thielen, Allan Hurns, Mohammed Sanu and others made picking WR late a great strategy. Heck I even had a lot of Pierre Garcon from before he signed and it took a while for his ADP to head north of the 10th rd.

But now I am finding with the uncertainty in the RB position a lot less now that we know where the RB were drafted a lot of good choices after round 10

Player ADP
Dixon, Kenneth 101.84
Murray, Latavius 102.48
Gore, Frank 108.08
Kelley, Rob 108.74
Perine, Samaje 110.71
Johnson, Duke 118.87
Bernard, Giovani 119.63
Forte, Matt 122.56
Kamara, Alvin 123.17
Charles, Jamaal 133.7
Hunt, Kareem 134.68
Rawls, Thomas 140.97
Blount, LeGarrette 144.78
Stewart, Jonathan 147.25
Hill, Jeremy 147.72
White, James 149.49
Lewis, Dion 156.06
Foreman, D'Onta 156.59
West, Terrance 158.64
Sproles, Darren 159.55
Williams, Jamaal 162.03
Burkhead, Rex 166.73
Sims, Charles 172.45
Mack, Marlon 176.3
Williams, Joe 184.93
Thompson, Chris 186.88
McKinnon, Jerick 188.49
Smallwood, Wendell 191.92
Williams, Jonathan 192.75
Booker, Devontae 193.55
Yeldon, T.J. 197.26
McNichols, Jeremy 198.01
Richard, Jalen 204.87
Washington, DeAndre 205.04
Mathews, Ryan 206.43
Rodgers, Jacquizz 206.7
Conner, James 208.72
Vereen, Shane 211.66

Now that we have a clearer idea of the possible roles for the rookies and the vets both I see a list filled with
1- Starters who have some concern whether it be age or competition like Dixon, Gore, Kelley, Forte, Blount and Stewart
2- Backups as of now who would be in line for bigger workloads if they can win the job or if there is injury to the perceived starter like Perine, Bernard, Hill, Hunt, Rawls, Foreman, West, both Williams, Booker, Mack, Washington and Richard
3- Third down backs with defined roles like Duke Johnson, Kamara, White, Sproles, Christ Thompson and Vereen

The case for Fantasy Football Zero RB in the current MFL10 marketplace

You can make a case for almost all of these RB at their current ADP as good values with upside which is the very thing that makes Zero RB such a good strategy.

To give a little background for those who might not know the Zero RB strategy that was created by Rotoviz Shawn Siegele is a strategy that takes advantage of the fact that RB are the most likely players to get hurt. On the other hand WR are the most consistent and safe options in Fantasy Football. So using this theory you load up on as many top caliber WR in rounds 1-6 that make sense and then drafting a wide variety of RB from the three tiers I just mentioned starting in the mid rounds through the end of the draft. By loading up on talented WR we get their safety and week to week top end production. And then hope nature takes its course and RB’s get injured. When this happens it is a perfect storm as you now have high value assets at both WR and RB.

This is doubly important in MFL10’s where you are trying for a one out of 12 lottery ticket to win it all and by the fact that you cannot do waivers in the best ball format.

Besides the late round RB I already mentioned in rounds 6-8 you can get the following RB’s to get your Zero RB lineups started

Riddick, Theo 77.83
Powell, Bilal 79.32
Perkins, Paul 88.16
Peterson, Adrian 88.35
Woodhead, Danny 88.41
Prosise, C.J. 91.31
Gillislee, Mike 91.68
Martin, Doug 98.84

I had concerns last year with Zero RB becoming so popular that it would make the strategy less effective. And then most of the key RB last year did not get hurt. While this was bad for Zero RB adherents last year it is perfect for our Warren Buffett like buying low strategy I put together in this article.

Using Warren Buffetts techniques to identify buying opportunities in Fantasy Football

In other words Buy Low on sound people and principles that are out of favor but have worked in the past. Please keep in mind that I never promote a strategy over sound choices. I will still be taking a stud RB when it makes sense and to mix up my exposure or as an old boss of mine used to say strategies are grand but execution is crucial but I do believe Zero RB if the drafts break right early is now firmly back on the table.

And so we have the opportunity to not just be flexible in thought and to change our strategy but to be flexible in practice and do it.

If you are like me and always trying to be flexible in thought then you will be considering Zero RB in drafts going forward and if you are not flexible that is ok too

Because while I enjoy writing and sharing I enjoy winning a lot more.

Come find me on Twitter @TodfromPa and say hello. If you follow me and mention you read my article I will be glad to follow back. And check out if you would my Run to Daylight podcast on both and Itunes. And good luck with your games!