Super Bowl Targets - DraftKings 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal It is Super Bowl weekend and although most, if not all, fantasy leagues have concluded, we still have DFS this week. While a one-game slate is typically not appealing by any means, DraftKings has decided to spice things up and change the lineup construction to where you choose four offensive players and two defensive players. They are also ending the season with a huge prize pool where first place gets $1 million dollars.
There are multiple ways to approach this type of format. You can roster two quarterbacks, which is sort of the way I am leaning at this time. You can leave the quarterbacks out of your lineup and go with four really good offensive players, increasing the floor and also potentially the upside. You can even pay up for defensive players, which will likely be something not many people do. The good thing is that there are ways to get creative this weekend, so feel free to mess around with your roster construction until you feel good about your team.
With that said, let’s take a look at some players to target this week.

Tom Brady $15,500 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

As I eluded to earlier I am considering playing two quarterbacks this weekend, but even if I do not, it is difficult to leave Brady off of my roster. When you think of quarterbacks you want in this situation, Brady has to be the first that comes to mind for most. He has played in 36 post season games, has a 27-9 record, has thrown 68 touchdowns, and averages 270 yards per game in the post season. In seven Super Bowl appearances, he has three 300+ passing yard games and has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of those seven games. The Eagles are most vulnerable in the secondary, so Brady should be able to dissect this unit apart. He is averaging over 300 passing yards per game in this post season and has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions. He is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and it would not feel right leaving him out of my lineup this weekend.

Alshon Jeffery $10,000 vs. New England Patriots

It is going to be tough to find low-owned players this weekend, but Jeffery’s price tag is pretty high, which could cause him to go lower owned than he should on a one-game slate. He had a strong performance against the Vikings a couple weeks back, catching 5-of-5 passes for 85 yards and two touchdowns. He and Foles have now connected nine times this post season on 10 targets and Jeffery has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of those games. Although, the Patriots defense ended the season playing well, they still were very generous to wide outs, allowing five touchdowns in their last four games. Jeffery should see plenty of targets this weekend and if the Eagles end up falling behind in this one, they are going to need his services even more.

Brandin Cooks $9,100 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Cooks is coming off of a nice performance against the Jaguars, catching 6-of-8 targets for 100 yards. Although he has not scored in the post season and did not have a good game against the Titans, he has been peppered with plenty of targets this far in two games (17). The Eagles were one of the more generous secondaries in the league this season, especially towards the end of the year where they allowed eight touchdowns to receivers in their last five games. Cooks is very fast and offers big play ability that could be the difference maker in a tournament. While long touchdowns are not hard to predict, I would not be shocked to see him get behind this secondary and break away for a big play.

Danny Amendola $9,500 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

It is really difficult to ignore what Amendola is doing this post season. He has caught 18-of-22 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. He also played a big role in last year’s Super Bowl, so it is clear that Tom Brady has a lot of confidence in these big games in Amendola, which is why I think he could continue this type of production against the Eagles. In addition to that, Amendola has the second highest advantage rating of any receiver this weekend at 16 percent according to Pro Football Focus. Amendola has flourished in these spots before, so there is no reason to think he does not do so again this time around.

LeGarrette Blount $5,500 vs. New England Patriots

Blount won two Super Bowls with the Patriots and now faces his former team as he tries to win his third with the Eagles. He is not receiving a ton of volume for Philadelphia, but he has scored in each of their two playoff games. The Eagles should want to keep Tom Brady off of the field, so running ball seems like an optimal strategy for this offense. If that is the case, Blount could see some extra work and once they get down to the goal line, they will call his number. He is +500 according to the books to score the first Eagles touchdown, which is second behind Zach Ertz who is +425. While there is not a ton of upside here for Blount, there is some potential touchdown equity and at this low price he makes some sense.

How I am treating the defensive players

First thing is first, make sure you are fully aware of what the scoring rules for defensive players are. If you do not know, here you go.

As you can see sacks and interceptions are very important, and although blocked kicks and safeties are too, those are far more difficult to predict. I am not saying that interceptions are easy to predict, but if you roster a safety or corner that plays most of the snaps for a team, he has an easier path to potentially put himself in a position to get an interception. I will be focusing on snap counts for defensive players throughout the post season and what they are doing with these snaps. Another thing to take into consideration when looking for defensive players is the potential game script. If you feel that the Eagles are going to be trailing in this one and will be forced to pass more, then targeting secondary players from New England may be wise as their probability to get an interception would increase. Correlating your offense with your defense seems like a good strategy.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal