Vegas vs. Fantasy Week 1 2018

It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines, paint a picture as to what to expect in different

situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on.

Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game Open Total Live Total

The Patriots and Texans game is one that many people will flock to because of the Vegas numbers. It is the only game on the board to open the season with an over/under above 50 points. The over on this game is receiving 60 percent of the bets. Both team in this contest have healthy totals, as New England has a 28.25 implied team total and Houston has a 22.25 implied team total. The spread in this game is six points and the Patriots are favorites, to no surprise. The bettors slightly prefer New England as they are receiving 52 percent of the bets against the spread. That said, this does not appear to be an entirely lopsided situation for either team according to the numbers. Both offenses are firmly in play in this contest and a game stack is certainly viable. The Texans struggled last season against quarterbacks, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position, putting Tom Brady in a really good spot. It is worth noting that he did torch them for five touchdowns last year. The Patriots were not that far behind as they surrendered the sixth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so Deshaun Watson is also in a really nice situation and he is expected to be chasing points here. Pass catchers and running backs from this contest can also be considered this week because there should be plenty of scoring from these offenses. Players from this matchup should be popular in DFS and I too will have some exposure to this game.

The Saints and Buccaneers have the second highest over/under on the slate, but it opened as the highest before dipping two points. At this time, 59 percent of the bets are on the under, so there is a chance we could still see this over/under move. The Saints have an implied team total of 29.5 points (the highest of any team on the slate) and the Bucs have an implied team total of 20 points. This game also has the highest spread, with the Saints favored by 9.5 points, and they are receiving 72 percent of

the bets against the spread. This means that almost ¾ of the bettors believe the Saints will cover. What these numbers tell me is to lock Alvin Kamara into all of my lineups because the game script will really play in his favor. In addition to that, his volume the first month of the season should be absurdly high, considering Mark Ingram is suspended. Now, aside from Kamara, I also have plenty of interest in the Saints passing game, making Drew Brees and Michael Thomas core plays for me. These two should be able to shred this defense apart, as Tampa Bay was very generous to both quarterbacks and receivers last season. With Ingram out, the Saints could also depend on Brees throwing the ball a bit more. On the other side, Jameis Winston will not play in this contest, so it is Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. He is not someone I am prioritizing, nor is Mike Evans this week. However, I do have some interest in DeSean Jackson as a longshot because he can break a deep ball for a touchdown and this is an offense that should be chasing points, plus he is dirt cheap in DFS. Peyton Barber is also a tad intriguing even though this offense is a road dog and the game script is not one favoring a running back. The reason I have interest is because he is cheap in DFS, will go unowned, and has showed the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, so he could have some success in this spot. Aside from those to potential wild cards, the Bucs is not a team I will have much exposure to this weekend.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

The Ravens host the Bills this weekend in what Vegas believes will be the lowest scoring game of the week. At this time, 80 percent of the bets are on the under, so despite it already being the lowest over/under this week, the bettors believe it will be even more low scoring. The Ravens are 7.5 point favorites in this contest (second highest on the slate) and are receiving 75 percent of the bets against the spread. They actually have a healthy implied team total of 24 points. On the other hand, the Bills are projected to score just 16.5 points. On the surface this game may be one that you breeze through the numbers and consider fading, but there is one player that I think is a strong play this week.

Everything is lining up for Alex Collins to be in a perfect situation. He should be playing with the lead so Baltimore should run, he faces a defense that was atrocious against the run last season and still is, and lastly, he is expected to receive the bulk of the work out of this backfield. In addition to all that, he is very affordable in DFS, making him a top target for me. The Ravens defense is also a strong play when you take into consideration how bad the Bills offense is and how awful the offensive line looked this preseason. I am staying away from the Bills side of the ball because it is just a situation I am not interested in. This should be a lopsided game if you look at the numbers and I am treating it as such.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Normally you would find the game with the biggest spread on the main slate in this section, but that would be the Saints and Bucs game, which I already talked about above. When this occurs I jump into the following game with the next highest spread, but that would be the Ravens and Bills game, which I also talked about. So this week, I will be discussing the game with the third highest spread. The Vikings are home favorites by roughly a touchdown. They opened as 4.5 point favorites, but since then the line has moved two points. The Vikings have an implied team total of 26.75 points, a healthy amount, while the 49ers have a subpar 19.75 team total. The Vikings are receiving 65 percent of the bets against the spread at this time, so more than half of the general public thinks that they will cover. The over/under in this game is 46 points and 71 percent of the bets are currently on the under. The Vikings are one of the best defenses in the game and are playing at home, so being a favorite here does make a lot of sense.

This is a spot where taking some of the players on Vikings offense makes sense. Dalvin Cook seems like he is in a great situation when looking at the numbers as his team should be playing with the lead and he is at home. Although Minnesota’s secondary is a tough one, I would not be opposed to some of the 49ers receivers and Jimmy Garoppolo here because they will most likely be chasing points and throwing the ball. Overall though, this is a game I will likely be under the field in because it does not appear that there will be much scoring.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal