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Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 16 (12/19/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 15 (12/12/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 14 (12/6/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 13 (11/28/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 12 (11/21/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 11 (11/15/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 10 (11/7/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 9 (10/31/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 8 (10/23/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 7 (10/16/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 6 (10/11/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 5 (10/3/18) Targets Snaps and Scoring Week 4 2018 (9/29/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 4 (9/26/18) Targets Snaps and Scoring Week 3 2018 (9/22/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 3 (9/19/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 2 (9/12/18) Targets Snaps and Scoring Week 1 2018 (9/8/18) Jens season-long and DFS Cheat Sheet and Stats 2018 Week 1 (9/5/18) Post 2018 Draft ADP Fallers (5/9/18) Post 2018 Draft ADP Risers (5/7/18) Best Ball ADP Variance 3.26.18 (3/26/18) Never-too-Early ADP Observations My First Draft of 2018 (2/16/18) Super Bowl LII Prop Betting (2/1/18) TNF Prop Betting Lines and DFS Implications (12/7/17) Target Leaders to target at trade deadline (11/17/17) Shoot for Upside in the Dallas Backfield week 10 2017 (11/10/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 6 2017 (10/12/17) Afternoon Slate Pays and Fades DSF wk5 (10/8/17) Targets and Snaps Week 5 2017 (10/6/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 5 2017 (10/4/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 4 2017 (9/28/17) Jens DFS Journal 2017 week 3 (9/22/17) Targets and Snaps Week 3 2017 (9/21/17) Fantasy Points Allowed Week 3 2017 (9/19/17) Jens DFS Journal 2017 week 2 (9/15/17) Target and Snap Analysis Week 2 2017 (9/14/17) Applying STOMP Fantasy Football Draft Theory and Analyzing the Results (9/8/17) Targets and Snaps Week 1 2017 (9/8/17) Week 1 DraftKings Pricing: Value and Deficiency vs 2016 Average (8/25/17) 2017 Football Diehards Staff Draft Analysis (8/18/17) Daily Fantasy Tips and Strategies 2017 (8/17/17) A Pre-Draft Look at Late Round Sleepers (4/27/17) Early MFL10 Observations (3/15/17) There is No Offseason MFL10s are Opening this Week (2/21/17) Super Bowl LI Prop Bets (2/2/17) DFS Lineup Optimizer Video fanduel wk20 2016 (1/21/17) Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 18 (1/7/17) Target and Snap Analysis Week 18 2016 (1/7/17)
Targets, Snaps, and Scoring – Week 1 2018
By Jen Ryan
Week 1 is finally here. We’ve spent months researching, drafting, working out our processes, and getting ready for this. We only get 17 weeks so it is important to make each week count.
Part of making our weekly roster and daily fantasy decisions requires pouring through stats and interpreting what the numbers mean. At FootballDiehards.com we have all the resources you need to make informed decisions.
If you haven’t already, you can click here to check out my Cheat Sheet, where I take stats from our pages, sprinkle in some of my own data, and create one large file.
For now, we can use last season’s stats. As the week’s build, the stats will and we will provide them for you at the following links:
Let’s dive right into some of the data from 2017 and what that can mean for Week 1.
- The Arizona Cardinals ranked fifth overall in spans run last season (1,124). Larry Fitzgerald was on the field for 95% of those snaps, the third-highest of any non-quarterback behind Jason Witten (98%) and Marvin Jones (96%). Fitzgerald figures to be on the field for nearly all of the snaps this season, dominate team target share, and remains a top receiver. This week, he has the second-highest favorable match up per Pro Football Focus.
- Devin Funchess, Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, Marvin Jones, Le’Veon Bell, Marquise Goodwin, Rob Gronkowski, Tyreek Hill. These are all players who had less targets than Christian McCaffrey in 2017. Only 12 players had more receptions than him. McCaffrey dominated preseason snaps with the first team and will see his 2017 snap share (70%) increase. McCaffrey faces a Dallas defense on Sunday that gave up a league-low nine touchdowns to running backs, a low they tie with…
- The Carolina Panthers, who will face Ezekiel Elliott. With a ton of question marks outside of Elliott, we can expect Carolina to stack the box. In 10 games last season, Elliott averaged 26.8 touches and 125.2 total yards. The volume will be there for both backs, despite the tough match ups on paper.
- Ben Watson led all tight ends with at least 30 receptions in completion percentage (77%). Watson had 61 on 70 targets and finds himself back with Drew Brees this season. Jack Doyle was right behind him with a 74% catch rate on 108 targets, securing 80 of them, and he finds himself back with Andrew Luck this season. There are 11 tight ends on DraftKings that will cost you more than Jack Doyle this week. Ben Watson is priced as the TE22 in a game with a 49.5 point total.
- The top three non-quarterbacks in fantasy last season were Todd Gurley (383 PPR, 319 STD), Le’Veon Bell (342 PPR, 257 STD), and Alvin Kamara (314 PPR, 233 STD). The fifth overall scorer was Antonio Brown (310 PPR, 209 STD) who has finished as the WR3, WR1, WR1, WR1, and WR2 over the past five seasons. DeAndre Hopkins finished with one more point than Brown.
- This weekend, both Kamara and Brown will see an increase in usage. Mark Ingram, suspended for the first four games, will not eat into Kamara’s workload and Bell has been M.I.A. (that’s missing in action, and in Miami) since players did their exit interviews after the 2017 season.
Important Vegas numbers to keep in mind for this weekend – roster and/or start players on these teams:
- 51: Total points expected in the New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans game, the highest of the weekend.
- 29.5: The highest implied total of any team, belonging to the New Orleans Saints who host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- 10: The largest spread of the weekend, again belonging to the New Orleans Saints
- 40.5: Total points expected in the Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills game, the lowest of the weekend.
- 16.75: The lowest implied total of any team, belonging to the Buffalo Bills, who are starting Nathan Peterman.
- 0: The spread in the Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals game. Both teams have an implied total of 22 points with a 44 point total. A pick em implies a shootout.
Before setting any lineup in both season-long and daily fantasy football, make sure you check out our stats pages linked above. You can also sort through my Cheat Sheet linked above. Good luck this weekend!