DFS Tournament Game Breakdown 2020 Week 11
Lamar Jackson, BAL
This has to work eventually… right? The good news for Jackson in tournaments is that he is still doing the things we want him to do in order to have a high ceiling. He is still attempting deep passes on 13% of his throws and is averaging 10 carries per game. Facing the Titans defense at home could be the game for Jackson to turn things around. Tennessee is allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game this year. Every week Jackson's price comes down is another chance to get him at lowered ownership and a value (or lose some money playing him in tournaments).
Deshaun Watson, HOU
Watson's game versus Cleveland last week can just be thrown out because he played outdoors in a game where the weather was so bad it was delayed at the start. Before that, he had at least two touchdowns in six straight games. He faces New England this week in a game with a 48-point (and rising) total. His cost has come down because of the Cleveland game and his ownership looks to be in check as well. Keep going back to Watson in tournaments and cash.
Salvon Ahmed, MIA
If Matt Breida isn't back this week, Ahmed will be bordering on free square RB territory and no one will know it. With Breida and Miles Gaskin out last week, Ahmed earned 21-of-26 running back carries for the Dolphins. The Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites over the Broncos this week. Even if Breida does return, he likely only serves as a pass-catching specialist and cover for a potential free square.
Miles Sanders, PHI
Despite both of the backs not named "Sanders" scoring for the Eagles last week, it was Sanders who operated as the three-down back. Sanders got 15 carries and five targets while Boston Scott and Corey Clement combined for four carries and one target but both scored. Sanders is an affordable, workhorse back who can be had at a fraction of the ownership of backs in similar roles.
Robby Anderson, CAR
Anderson is going to remain a popular option in tournaments because of his $6,000 price on DraftKings but we're not playing him in a vacuum. We're playing him over Mike Davis, who is projecting to be one of the more popular backs with Christian McCaffrey out again this week. Every yard and touchdown that Anderson scores is taken away from the Davis owners. He should have no problem tacking up yards and scoring touchdowns with a 36% air yards share and 26% target share on the year.
Jakobi Meyers, NE
Meyers has a 38% target share and a whopping 61% air yards share over the past four weeks. He faces one of our quarterbacks so he makes the perfect run-back option to a Watson and Will Fuller or a Watson and Brandin Cooks stack. With a lower price and five more targets over their past four games, Cooks is the preferred stacking option.
Logan Thomas, WAS
Thomas may not be a flashy choice at tight end but he continues to be the best punt play on the slate and his ownership doesn't reflect his value. He has seen at least four targets in every one of his games this year. Thomas is one of only three tight ends who can say that and the other two or vastly more expensive. Washington faces the Bengals this week so Thomas could correlate well with Joe Mixon if he returns to the lineup this week.
Hayden Hurst, ATL
Hurst's 16% target share might not seem like a monstrous slice of the Atlanta pie but the Falcons are attempting over 39 passes per game, fourth-most in the league. He's taking a modest slice out of a huge pie. Their matchup with the Saints currently has a 51-point total and the Falcons are 5-point dogs. The stars are aligned for another massive day from the Atlanta passing attack and Hurst could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Despite the incredible comeback narrative, Alex Smith has struggled to produce efficiently on the field. He has a 2.9% interception rate, an 8.8% sack rate, and 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt. Defense ownership looks fairly flat this week meaning there isn't one popular play and a bunch of contrarian choices. Because of that, we'll roll with the best value on the slate. If Thomas isn't in your lineup but you're still playing the Bengals defense, they also correlate well with Joe Mixon.