DFS Pivot Plays week 9 2017

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday main slate.

Quarterback



Chalk

Drew Brees $7,000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brees faces off against a Bucs defense that comes in as one of the worst against the pass. They are giving up 280.9 passing yards per game and have surrendered 12 passing touchdowns, while allowing +2.8 points above expectations to opposing signal callers. Being that this is a division game, he sees them twice a year and Brees has done well against in home games, averaging 311.8 passing yards per game and tossing 14 touchdowns in the last six home games against the Bucs. By now most are aware about his career home/road splits, so between that and the favorable matchup, I expect him to be the highest owned, if not one of the more popular quarterbacks of the slate.

Pivot

Dak Prescott $6,700 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prescott will carry some ownership as well, but I project him to be less owned than Brees and he too gets a good matchup against the Chiefs who are allowing 273.1 passing yards per game and have given up 14 passing touchdowns this season. Prescott is averaging 32.3 pass attempts per game and that includes his last two games where he has attempted 25 or fewer passes due to blowout situations. That should not be the case this week as this game has the highest over/under of the slate and just a 2.5 point spread. Prior to his last game, Prescott had topped 22 fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two 29+ fantasy point performances. He should get back on track this week and comes in fairly priced for the upside he brings to the table.

Running Backs

Chalk

Lamar Miller $6,200 vs. Indianapolis Colts Miller is coming off of a one of his better games of the season and it was against a tough opponent. This week he draws a much better matchup against the Colts who are giving up 97.6 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, and have surrendered a league high eight rushing touchdowns. In addition, they have allowed 38 receptions for 462 yards and two touchdowns to opposing backs. With the devastating season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson, the Texans may have to rely on the run a bit more, which should increase Miller’s touches. As it is, he is averaging 19.6 touches per game and has played in 76 percent of the Texans snaps. In addition, he accounts for 52.1 percent of the red zone rushes and 9.1 percent red zone targets. Miller clearly has a significant role on this offense and it could see a slight boost starting this week against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Pivot

Christian McCaffrey $6,500 vs. Atlanta Falcons I thought McCaffrey would be somewhat high-owned this weekend, but I have not heard a ton of buzz surrounding him. He draws a very good matchup against the Falcons who have allowed 48 receptions for 384 yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing backs, as well as a 75 percent catch rate. This is good news for a back the leads the team in targets, averaging 8.3 targets per game. McCaffrey plays a significant role on this offense, accounting for 24 percent of the team’s targets share, 25.9 percent of the red zone targets, and 13.9 percent of the red zone carries. That could actually increase now the Kelvin Benjamin, who averaged 6.4 targets per game, is no longer with the team. McCaffrey might go overlooked in a potential smash spot and game script does not affect him, so despite the Panthers being slight underdogs in this contest, he can still be productive.

Wide Receivers

Chalk

Michael Thomas $7,200 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thomas is Drew Brees’ favorite target, so if Brees will be popular, Thomas should also be popular. Thomas leads the Saints with 62 targets, which is good for 25 percent of the team’s target share and also accounts for 16.7 percent of the red zone targets. He draws a nice matchup against a Bucs defense that has allowed 104 receptions for 1,367 yards and eight touchdowns to opposing receivers, with a 65 percent catch rate. He is projected to see coverage from Robert McClain who grades out below average on Pro Football Focus, a matchup that Thomas has a 30 percent advantage rating in. The potential game script also favors Thomas as this contest has one of the higher implied totals of the weekend and just a 6.5 point spread.

Pivot

Julio Jones $7,800 at Carolina Panthers This Falcons offense has been a shadow of what it was last season and that has really affected Jones this year. Midway through the NFL season, he has 37 receptions for 540 yards and just one touchdown. Volume has also been a bit of an issue, as he is averaging eight targets per game, receiving 56 for the season, but has five or fewer targets in two games. With that said, he still possesses plenty of upside and gets a matchup against a Panthers defenses that he has had some big games against in recent history. In two of his last three games against them, Jones has topped 175 receiving yards, including a 300 receiving yard game and has scored two touchdowns during that stretch. The Panthers have done well against receivers this season, but Jones’ one-on-one matchup against James Bradberry is favorable, as Jones has a 36 percent advantage rating against him. Pivoting from Thomas to Jones is only something I would consider in tournaments because Jones has not been as explosive as we have seen in past years. However, I think there are still some big games left in him this season and this could be one of them. He will go completely overlooked and getting Jones at this price, plus at a low ownership is intriguing.

Tight Ends

Chalk

Jack Doyle $4,300 vs. Houston Texans I have heard a lot of buzz surrounding Doyle this week and I anticipate that he will be very popular. He was peppered with 14 targets last game, coming down with 12 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown, scoring 33.1 DK points. Since Week 2, Doyle has seen seven or more targets in all but one game. In fact, Doyle is fourth amongst tight ends in targets this season. He accounts for 21 percent of the Colts target share, as well as 17.4 percent of the red zone targets. He faces off against Houston who has allowed three touchdowns to tight ends in their last two games and four touchdowns in their last three. There is a lot to like about him this week and after a big game, recency bias will draw attention his way.

Pivot

Cameron Brate $4,500 at New Orleans Saints Most people will likely take the $200 discount and roster Doyle which is fine, but since I am planning of having exposure to T.Y. Hilton, I am pivoting at tight end to Brate who is also in a favorable matchup. On paper the Saints appear to be a tough defensive team against tight ends, but if you look at their matchups they have not faced a ton of talent at the position. However, in a couple of games where they have faced a good tight end they have allowed a touchdown. Brate has a 36 percent advantage rating in this matchup, according to Pro Football Focus, which is the highest of any tight end this week. Since Week 4, he is averaging 7.4 targets and 15.6 fantasy points per game. As a matter of fact, he has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points just once this season. This game could shootout, so I expect Brate to be targeted as he normally is and this is a matchup that he should take advantage of.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal