DFS Bobby Gomes Tournament Breakdown Week 1 2018
Qb:Alex Smith (5,600) Projected Ownership (4%) Alex Smith has sneaky upside with his legs and a lack of a running game. Arizona is a funnel defense and Washington is going to come in as a 1 point road dog in this matchup. Last year Smith played some of his best football on the road. Four of his five three hundred yard passing games came on the road. He also threw 16 of his 26 touchdown passes away from Arrowhead.
Kirk Cousins (6,500) Projected Ownership (2%) Cousins should probably be chalkier than what he is cousins gets a matchup going up against at one of the fastest paces in the league last year in the San Francisco 49ers. The increase in pace of play means more opportunity for Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings defense.
Drew Brees (6,800) Projected Ownership (16%) The Saints have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.5. He’s at home in the coors field of the NFL The Buccaneers have a funnel defense that is strong up front and funnels to the pass. The Ingram suspension should force Brees to throw more than he normally would have had to in the offense the saints ran last year.
Case Keenum (5,000) Projected Ownership Like Keenum for both cash and tournaments the Broncos have One of the higher team totals on the slate at 22.5. Keenum led all quarterbacks in Football Outsiders’ passing Defense-adjusted Value which measures efficiency. Seattle is another defense that funnels to the pass and Keenum has upside with his legs.
Jimmy Garoppolo (5,700) Projected Ownership (1%) Love Garoppolo in this spot, at this price and potential lack of ownership, his floor is high especially with a lack of a running game, and a game script that has him playing from behind. The Viking defense put up great numbers at home last season, but they didn’t really play any great quarterbacks. The vikings are obviously a great defense but Jimmy is a great quarterback and the Kyle Shanahan affect should help the 49ers put up points.
Rb:James Conner (4,500) Projected Ownership (20%) Don’t get cute James Conner should be good chalk as the steelers starter in week 1. Connor should be utilized in all formats at this price tag, because his potential usage output in wake of Leveon Bell’s hold out. If you do feel like fading Connor Rex Burkheas and James White are great tournament options as well. Problem for me is I think they’ll significantly cut into each others usage.
Alvin Kamara (8,500) Projected Ownership (35%) Another “good chalk” situation which I would choose to be above the field is with Alvin Kamara. The saints have the highest implied team total on the board at 29.5 and Kamara should see a usage bump due to the ingram suspension.
Christian McCaffrey (6,400) Projected Ownership (25%) This price is way to cheap for McCaffrey who saw 89% of the first team snaps in the preseason. There were some questions as to whether C.J. Anderson would cut into his usage but according to that output that doesn’t seem likely.
Joe Mixon (6,100) Projected Ownership (8%) You have to like Mixon’s price tag and his expected usage at this ownership clip. Mixon has the potential to see workhorse usage this season, and he has even been utilized in the passing game this preseason. At this price and ownership you have to like Mixon’s upside.
Lamar Miller (5,000) Projected Ownership (8%) Lamar Miller should see the bulk of the carries versus the Patriots. Miller played some of his best football last season with Deshaun Watson in the lineup so if the usage is they're at 5k he makes for an intriguing tournament pivot.
Will Fuller (5,000) Projected Ownership (5-8%) Fuller had six touchdowns on 13 receptions last season during the six games he played with Deshaun Watson. This is very much so a pace up spot versus the a Patriots team that ranked number one in the league in plays per game. Houston should likely see an uptick in plays if they are forced to match that pace. The game script favors Houston So if your worried about a lack of targets for Fuller don’t be.
Chris Hogan (6,100) Projected Ownership (20%) Hogan should be good chalk as he should see major usage with no edelman (suspension), Amendola, Brandin Cooks or Dion Lewis in the fold. I think i’ll be with or above the field in terms of my allocation to him. Hogan had two td’s in this same matchup last season and now he gets to fight less people for targets.
TY Hilton (6,800) Projected Ownership (5-8%) This is extremely low ownership for a guy who should be a centerpiece of Andrew Luck’s passing attack. I’m always willing to take a shot on TY in a dome so I expect i’ll be above the field in terms of my ownership.
Emmanuel Sanders (5,000) Projected Ownership (13%) Sanders saw a 48% market share of the broncos offense in the preseason and i expect that trend to continue. Seattle’s secondary is not what it was and i expect keenum to attack it with Sanders.
Trent Taylor (3,500) Projected Ownership (0-1) This play in itself is an extreme long shot play to the point to where i just wanted to make it easy write up Steff Diggs and just call it a day, but I think there is a ton off potential for Trent Taylor in this spot. Now i would only go there in deep GPP but with no real pass catching back and Goodwin shadowed by Xavier Rhodes on the outside Taylor is definatey going to get some usage. How much?... I have no idea but I’d expect more than usual.
Te:Kyle Rudolph (4,500) Projected Ownership (4%) I’ll be overweight on Rudolph in tournaments to offset Jordan Reed ownership. New Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Steve Defilipo has a penchant for throwing to the tight end and with Richard Sherman having his hands full with Steffon Diggs it should open up the middle of the field for Reed.
Jordan Reed (4,000) Projected Ownership (35%) Jordan Reed seems like good chalk week 1 due to his matchup and the presence of Patrick Peterson who should blanket Josh Doctson. It’s a similar situation to Rudolph and Reed comes in at a 500 dollar discount.
George Kittle (3,300) Projected Ownership (2%) Usage is the name of the game and the possibility of Kittle seeing a solid amount of it versus the Viking at his price tag is a good reason to be above the field. Its the same thing with Kittle, as it is with Reed, and Rudolph a strong corner on the opposing defense in this case Xavier Rhodes should force extra targets to Kittle. Its important to note that all three of the aforementioned tight ends have question marks in their backfield hopefully contributing to even more usage.
D:Saints (3,600) Projected Ownership (5%) Saints have a great matchup at home going up against back up quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has thrown 176 career touchdowns and 136 interceptions turnovers are possible here especially with the high implied team total for the saints Fitzpatrick should have more opportunity to throw playing from behind which means more opportunities for Marcus Lattimore and the Saints defense.
Panthers (3,200) Projected Ownership (4%) Like the Panthers in this spot getting the cowboys at home. Dak didn’t have a great year last year throwing the football i think that should continue after losing Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.
Chargers (2,800) Projected Ownership (9-12%) First year starter going up against a defense that can really bring it up front with studs like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Casey Hayward anchors the back end and is lockdown on the outside. Expect sacks and turnovers and at (2,800) thats never a bad thing.
Texans (2,200) Projected Ownership (1%) The Texans can really get after the quarterback and the patriots have a lot of issues on the offensive line right now.The Pats lost their rookie first round left tackle in the first game of the preseason. That doesn’t bode well when JJ Watt and Jadevon Clowney are coming to to town. Also Brady typically uses his slot receiver to slow the rush he doesn’t have that luxury this week with no Julian Edelman. Tyrann Mathieu is also roaming in the secondary. I like the Texans for deep GPP’s like the Milly Maker or as a tournament\t pivot on the early slate just because of how much ownership will go to Patriots offensive players.