The Jaguars went down in flames against the Titans last week, but as ESPN's Mike Clay notes, hidden in the blowout was some serious touchdown regression to the mean for Leonard Fournette
Entering Week 12 as the league's unluckiest running back in the touchdown department, Fournette had registered only one score despite 230 touches. Against the Titans, Fournette racked up 159 yards and two touchdowns on 33 touches.
The huge day vaults him to fifth among running backs in fantasy points for the season.
He's yet to post a weekly finish worse than 27th and has six top-12 weekly finishes. Note that, even after the big game, Fournette remains the league's unluckiest back in the scoring department with three touchdowns.
Nonetheless, Fournette is averaging a massive 18.7 carries and 6.1 targets per game and is locked in as a high-end RB1.
Unfortunately, the Buccaneers remain the game's stiffest running back matchup.
According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft, their seasonal minus-9.4 adjusted fantasy points added is four points better than that of any other team in the league, not to mention their 70 rushes allowed of at least 5 yards are the second-fewest behind the Saints' 67.
Meanwhile, the passing attack is well-positioned here.
According to Clay, the Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past month. That includes the second most to the perimeter this season and most over the past eight weeks.
Tampa has allowed 10 receivers to hit the 100-yard mark this season, and eight of those scored.
(78 percent perimeter) and Chris Conley
(91 percent) will draw Carlton Davis and rookie Jamel Dean this weekend. Dede Westbrook
(86 percent slot) will primarily work against rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting inside.
Tampa Bay has also allowed the most fantasy points to the slot this season and over the past month. All three of Jacksonville's wideouts should be upgraded significantly.
Chark sees a very solid 23.72 percent of the overall targets for Jacksonville, and that balloons to a massive 29.55 percent in the red zone with 13 targets on the season, as many targets in that space as Fournette and Westbrook combined. Chark's volume has been extremely consistent, with a touchdown or at least seven targets in nine of 11 games this season.
almost always airs it out for Conley; the veteran wideout enjoyed a team-high 168 air yards in Week 12 and ranked second on the team
in air yardage in Week 11. Steady vertical usage can drive some big box scores for even somewhat nameless wideouts like Conley.
The Bucs have allowed the most yards per game to receivers, setting up Conley as a worthy streaming option. In