J.K. Dobbins 2023 Outlook
Dobbins has not been healthy often in his NFL career. When he has been, he’s averaged 5.9 yards per carry for his career and scored a rushing touchdown roughly every two games. For the first time since his rookie campaign, Dobbins enters the new season healthy and ready to establish himself as the Baltimore Ravens’ clear-cut RB1. Is there risk in taking Dobbins after his nagging knee injury required a mid-season surgery and limited him to eight games in 2022? Absolutely. There’s a reason he’s ranked 19th on this list, after all. But Dobbins played four games following the extra surgery and gained 120, 125, 59 and 93 rushing yards, respectively. It was the best he’d looked since 2020. There’s still Gus Edwards (and for that matter, Lamar Jackson) for Dobbins to share the carries with, but at least the volume will be there. Baltimore remains one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, even as it transitions from Greg Roman to Todd Monken as offensive coordinator. Dobbins stands to benefit from inside-zone reads where opposing defenses will look to contain Jackson first.
J.K. Dobbins 2022 Outlook
J.K. Dobbins Capsule
The Ravens had big plans for their backfield heading into the 2022 season, but they had to change them before the year even got underway. Dobbins tore his ACL in a pre-season game to kick off a run of season-ending injuries before the opening week of the season. Gus Edwards tore his ACL and Justice Hill tore his Achilles, which left the Ravens to turn to players like Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray on the fly. In March, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta talked about the hit that the Ravens took and offered some optimism about getting back to full strength in the backfield this season. "It was certainly a big blow," DeCosta said. "J.K. specifically, obviously suffered a serious knee injury, but he's a young player, a hungry player, he's got a great mindset and he's been working very, very hard. We are very, very confident he'll come back and be the type of player that he was two years ago. ..." Dobbins ran 134 times for 805 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, so a return to that form would be a welcome development in Baltimore. From a fantasy perspective, Dobbins' complete lack of involvement as a pass-catcher put a cap on his fantasy ceiling, but assuming he's good to go Week 1, Dobbins still projects as a top-20 fantasy RB after Baltimore invested minimally in the RB position this offseason.
J.K. Dobbins 2021 Outlook
Dobbins was used to being the featured back at Ohio State. So it took a little adjusting to feel comfortable in the Ravens' heavy rotation of running backs after he entered the league as the 55th overall pick in 2020. Baltimore finished 2020 as the league's top rushing offense, with Dobbins second on the club behind Lamar Jackson with 805 yards. But Dobbins wants more for himself and the team in 2021. "I want that weight on my shoulders," Dobbins said. "I thrive on things like that. I pride myself on being a playmaker. I didn't get to show that this year. Hopefully I can share that with the whole world." His odds of doing that improved when Mark Ingram was released early this offseason. Jackson will continue running and Gus Edwards is still there and will have a role. But as ESPN's Matthew Berry suggested, Dobbins, who was RB11 in fantasy points per game over the final six weeks last season, should be in for a big workload and big fantasy season. If he gets that, look out. As FantasyPros.com pointed out, over the last 10 years, there have been 455 running backs who've totaled at least 100 carries in a season. Dobbins' 6.01 yards per carry ranks as the fourth-highest mark.
