The Facts: Despite being signed to a lucrative free agent contract with the expectation of being the starting running back for the Jaguars in 2014, Gerhart may only average 12-15 carries per game according to beat writer Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union.
Diehards Line:
As the Redzone.org notes, O'Halloran is considered one of the top reporters on the Jags beat but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this projection. While no one expects Gerhart to be the next Maurice Jone-Drew, he has the build and talent to be a Michael Turner/Marshawn Lynch type of volume back. He has limited mileage due to playing behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota but no one on the Jags current roster is a serious threat to steal carries in Jacksonville. Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson are not feature back material -- although rookie Storm Johnson has generated some buzz. Still, Gerhart's career rushing average against base defenses is 4.4 yards per carry. Coupled with the fact that the Jags are scheduled to face a softer schedule in Year 2 under HC Gus Bradley, we agree with the Redzone’s assessment: Gerhart is far more likely to exceed 300 carries than to hover around 200.