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2010 IDP Primer and Positional Cheatsheets
By Rustyn Rose, FantasyKnuckleheads.com
Headlines
Here is a rundown of the pivotal off-season moves and other important stories impacting the IDP landscape for 2010.
The Texans’ Brian Cushing Suspended Four Games
Despite missing training camp and the 2009 preseason, Cushing had a huge rookie campaign, notching 133 tackles, four sacks and four interceptions to go along with a Pro-Bowl appearance and Rookie of the Year honors. He had an early Top-10 IDP ranking headed into 2010 until he was suspended four games this season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policies after testing positive for steroids.
The Panthers’ Thomas Davis Tears ACL Again
After missing the end of the 2009 season to a torn ACL, Davis wasted no time in tearing the same anterior cruciate ligament again in 2010. While backpedaling during individual drills this spring, Davis went down without being touched by another player and immediately gripped his right knee. He will miss the entire 2010 season. His likely replacement is Jamarr Williams, though Dan Conner could figure into the mix.
The Bills, Jaguars, Giants and Redskins Change Defensive Schemes
This season the Buffalo Bills and Washington Redskins will move from a 4-3 defensive scheme to the 3-4 package. The Jacksonville Jaguars will go the other direction, moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3 base. For that reason they signed Aaron Kampman away from Green Bay and snapped up four defensive linemen in the 2010 draft. The New York Giants, who have been using a 4-3 front, have announced they will now begin using multiple fronts under new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell. The switch for Buffalo means the likely retirement of veteran DE Aaron Schobel who had 10 sacks last season. The change in Washington puts an immediate hurt on Albert Hayneworth's Fantasy value. Look for him to be traded. Likely landing spots include Seattle, Detroit or a return to Tennessee.
Team Defensive Bases
4-3: CIN, HOU, TEN, OAK, PHI, SEA, ATL, DET, TB, JAX, STL
4-3/Tampa-2: IND, MIN, CHI, CAR
3-4: CLE, NE, SD, PIT, DAL, MIA, GB, SF, ARI, KC, DEN, BUF, WAS
Multiple Front: BAL, NYJ, NO, NYG
IDP Drafting Strategy
First and foremost, knowing your league's scoring settings is the first step to a successful IDP draft. How many points are sacks, interceptions, and tackles worth? Do you get points for pass defenses or return yardage? These are all key components. In most standard IDP leagues you will receive one point per solo tackle. For this reason, drafting high-tackle players is key to creating consistent weekly scoring. Sacks, interceptions and defensive touchdowns are mercurial and more a matter of opportune timing.
Defensive Linemen -- From a Fantasy standpoint, DL is the thinnest and most inconsistent pool of Fantasy talent. In 2009, only two DLs (Jared Allen and Julius Peppers) scored enough Fantasy points to make the Top-20 overall IDP list. In contrast, 30 LBs and a dozen defensive backs outscored all defensive linemen not named Allen and Peppers. A player can go several games without a sack and then get several in one week. The best strategy is to grab one or two career-consistent DLs before looking at linebackers or defensive backs, then grab one or two high upside DLs late. The top DLs are likely to start going off the draft board around the 6th to 7th round.
Linebackers -- The linebacker position is the easiest of the three to fill with dozens of 80-to-100 tackle players available and new surprises each season. For that reason, the best strategy is to wait until you have one or two top DL players before grabbing your linebackers. Linebackers reward you with consistency. You want high-tackle performers who will get you 10 or more points per week. Avoid strong-side linebackers as they get fewer opportunities as a general rule. LBs can start going off the board as early as the fourth or fifth round, but you are better off waiting until the eighth or ninth to grab a couple of solid performers.
Defensive Backs -- Cornerbacks and safeties are the hardest to gauge in terms of Fantasy viability from one season to the next because so much is based on opportunity and match-ups. While they are the players likely to get the big play interceptions and defensive touchdowns, those cannot be predicted. The suggested strategy is to draft DBs after you have established your core DL and LB positions. Look for players with high tackle numbers for weekly consistency. The DB run will usually start around the 13th or 14th round. Note: If your league uses return yardage as a scoring category, this makes certain DBs more Fantasy valuable because they will get return yardage points on kick-offs and punts.
Impact Rookies
Each season at least one new Fantasy IDP stud emerges from the rookie ranks. Guys like Cushing, James Laurinaitis, Jerod Mayo and the ultimate Fantasy IDP monster, Patrick Willis. The 2010 season will likely reveal yet another. Take note that all of the names listed above are linebackers. Defensive linemen and defensive backs rarely explode into Fantasy domination during their rookie year. The lone exception in recent memory is Jared Allen's 2004 rookie campaign. This year's draft offered up no beasts of Allen's caliber. Here are some rookie IDP names that should be on your Fantasy radar heading into 2010.
LB Rolando McClain, OAK -- McClain could not have asked for a better landing spot than the Raiders. Their MLB position has been a Fantasy goldmine, and McClain has the talent to put up numbers similar to Patrick Willis in his rookie season. He will be a dominant Fantasy stud for years to come, and he is a Top-10 LB pick this season
DB Eric Berry, KC -- Usually defensive backs do not break out until their second season. San Diego's Eric Weddle and Houston's Bernard Pollard are prime examples. Berry has already earned the starting nod at strong safety, and he has all the skills to end the season as a Top-10 Fantasy DB. He will likely go off the board between the 15th and 20th DBs drafted.
DL Derrick Morgan, TEN -- Defensive linemen have a strong learning curve to overcome and rarely show Fantasy dominance in their rookie season. Morgan will line-up alongside William Hayes for the Titans and could put up decent numbers at a thin position. If Albert Haynesworth gets traded back to Tennessee it will only help Morgan. In 2010 he could be a low-end DL2 or high-end DL3.
DB Earl Thomas, SEA -- Thomas possesses great speed and cover skills which should allow him to make big plays as a rookie. With the Seahawks moving Jordan Babineaux to strong safety, Thomas will come in at free safety.
DB Taylor Mays, SF -- Mays will look to beat out veteran Michael Lewis at strong safety, sooner rather than later. He has impressed in camp and could be a nice sleeper pick in 2010.
Overvalued
LB Elvis Dumervil, DEN -- Elvis had 17 sacks last season -- a career high he won't achieve again. To be a good Fantasy value he needs 80-100 tackles and his career average is 37. His numbers also tank in even numbered years.
LB Brian Urlacher, CHI -- He had his worst Fantasy numbers in 2008, and missed 2009 with an injury. Let someone else pay for "the name."
LB James Harrison, PIT -- Harrison has given way to LaMarr Woodley as the true pass rush IDP stud for the Steelers.
CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ -- Revis is one of the game's best corners, but that actually hurts his Fantasy value as team's throw away from him in order to limit his impact. Less opportunity equals less Fantasy value.
DE Antwan Odom -- After astounding with eight sacks to start the 2009 season, Fantasy owners have unrealistic hopes for a huge 2010 despite his career numbers.
SS Adrian Wilson, ARI -- Wilson is constantly hyped as a Top-10 DB pick, but he hasn't put up Top-10 numbers since 2006.
DT Albert Haynesworth, WAS -- Fat Albert is another big name with thin Fantasy value.
Undervalued
DE William Hayes, TEN -- With Kyle Vanden Bosch gone to Detroit, Hayes is now the man for the Titans. Rookie Derrick Morgan will help keep him from double teams, and if Haynesworth returns Hayes’ value only climbs higher.
SS Kenny Phillips, NYG -- KP headed into 2009 with high expectations which he started to fulfill until injury cost him the year. In 2010, he's fallen off everyone's radar due to microfracture surgery. If he gets fully healthy, he’ll be a steal.
LB DeAndre Levy, DET – Larry Foote was released by the Lions and returned to Pittsburgh. That leaves the MLB spot open for Levy who was impressive while filling in for Ernie Sims on the weak side last year. Behind an improved defensive line, Levy could surprise.
DE Greg "Stylez" White, TB -- After the Bucs off-loaded Gaines Adams last season, White proceeded to rack up 6.5 sacks. This season he's in better shape than ever and the team fortified the line which only helps.
LB Michael Boley, NYG -- Boley was expected to be a 100 tackle stud for the G-men in 2009, but he got hurt and missed five games. If you extrapolate his final production over a full season, he'd have met his projected numbers.
SS Patrick Chung, NE -- Chung should start this season and when he does, look out. He could turn into an IDP monster. Since he's off the radar of most Fantasy players, he can be had for a steal at the end of most drafts.
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