Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 11 2018

If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
 

Philadelphia Eagles

Game Over/Under: 56
Team Implied Points: 24
Carson Wentz $6,300 draws a great matchup this week against the Saints who rank 28th in DVOA against the pass. New Orleans is yielding the second most DKFP per game to opposing quarterback (26.7), while surrendering 2,799 passing yards (4th most) and 19 passing touchdowns (tied 4th most) to the position this season. Wentz has been productive all season long, tossing multiple touchdowns and scoring at least 22 DKFP in all but one game this season. This is a matchup that he should exploit and a game environment that should be favorable for him. The lack of run game for Philadelphia and the Saints stout run defense, really sets up to be a heavy passing attack for the Eagles this week. Look for Wentz to sling it and be successful at it.

Alshon Jeffery $6,300 is expected to see one-on-one coverage from Eli Apple, a matchup that he has a 24 percent advantage rating in. The Saints have really been generous to opposing wide outs this season, giving up the most DKFP per game to the position (48.9). In addition, this unit has allowed 1,911 receiving yards (most in the NFL), 15 receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the NFL), and 131 receptions (tied 7th most) to the position. Jeffery has been peppered with 52 targets this season (15 percent), despite missing the first three games, receiving at least eight in all but one game. He also has 10 red zone targets which is good for 18.5 percent of the Eagles market share. This sets up to be a favorable situation for him and I expect him to take advantage of it. He and Wentz should be connecting often this weekend, and considering this fair price for Jeffery, he makes a ton of sense.

Zach Ertz $6,600 is by far the best tight end on the slate and arguably the best tight end in football right now. He is averaging 11.1 targets per game (29.1 percent) and leads all tight ends with 75 receptions for a league high 789 yards. Ertz is also among the league leaders with 17 red zone targets, 31.5 percent of the team’s market share. He is coming off of a huge game and has displayed his 20+ DKFP upside numerous times this season. The game environment is a favorable one here, as the Eagles are expected to be chasing points against a soft pass defense. That said, New Orleans has been solid against tight ends this season, ranking fifth in DVOA against the position and have minimized the damage, allowing the fifth fewest DKFP per game, with just one touchdown (2nd lowest). This leaves me tempering my expectations a bit for Ertz, but he is talented enough to get it done against any defense, as we have seen in the past.

Golden Tate $5,500 was not heavily involved in his first game with the Eagles, but another week getting to learn the playbook and practicing with his quarterback should get him some more reps in this week. The matchup is extremely good, as he is expected to see coverage from P.J. Williams who grades out poorly on PFF, a matchup that Tate has a 36 percent advantage rating in (2nd highest of the slate). Also, as you know by now, the Saints are extremely generous to opposing wide outs and the game environment is a good one. This price is too cheap for a receiver as productive as Tate can be. I would not trust him in cash games, simply because his role is not yet know in this offense, but the upside in tournaments is intriguing.

Secondary Options: Nelson Agholor can also be considered in a Wentz stack, but he is not someone I am prioritizing. According to PFF, he is expected to draw coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who is the Saints best corner. In addition, once Tate gets rolling, we could see Agholor drop down in the pecking order for targets. The price is right and so is the matchup, which is why he is in play, but not someone I intend to have heavy exposure to, if any at all.

My favorite option: Wentz/Jeffery
 

New Orleans Saints

Game Over/Under: 56
Team Implied Points: 32
Drew Brees $6,500 did not have to sling it much last week, but still tossed three touchdown passes and continues to play well. Unlike last week, I do expect him to throw it more this week. In fact, he is averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game at home, versus 31.8 pass attempts per game on the road. In addition, the Eagles have been solid against the run, funneling to the pass, so I expect the Saints offense to exploit that weakness. Philadelphia ranks 14th in DVOA against the pass, but they are yielding 285.3 passing yards and over 20 DKFP per game. They have minimized the touchdowns, but I do not expect them to be able to contain Brees. New Orleans has the highest implied team total on the slate and should put up plenty of points on the board, so this is a spot that Brees should shine in.

Michael Thomas $8,800 followed up his Week 9 monster performance with another good game last week, grabbing all eight of his targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. He has now scored four touchdowns in the last four games and has topped 25 DKFP in back-to-back games. This week’s matchup is a favorable one for him, as the Eagles have been generous to opposing receivers, allowing the fourth most DKFP per game (43.3). This unit has surrendered 137 receptions (4th most), 1,720 receiving yards (6th most), and nine touchdowns to opposing wide outs. The one-on-one matchup is also a good one against Rasul Douglas, a matchup that Thomas has a 26 percent advantage rating in, according to PFF. Four of Thomas’ touchdowns this season are at home – the have played four home games – and that is where this game will be held, so considering how well he plays in the dome and the matchup, this should be a matchup finds success in.

Alvin Kamara $8,200 continues to be a force to reckon with in this high-powered offense. He has now scored at least two touchdowns in each of his last three games and has found the pay dirt in four straight games. In the last three weeks, he has not scored fewer than 26 DKFP once and has combined for 18 targets. This sets up to be a game environment favoring Kamara and although the Eagles have been stingy against the run this season, they have been susceptible to pass catching backs, allowing 61 receptions (5th most) and 504 receiving yards (8th most). Kamara is responsible for 24 percent of the targets share for the Saints, as well as 30 percent of the team’s red zone targets (a league high 21). Kamara should be heavily involved in the passing game this week as usual, making him an appealing option to stack with Brees.

Secondary Options: There are no other players I am considering in a Saints stack this week.

My favorite option: Brees/Thomas
 

Dallas Cowboys

Game Over/Under: 48.5
Team Implied Points: 22.5
Dak Prescott $5,200 has been more efficient since the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, completing at least 67 percent of the passes in each of his last two games. Prior to that, his highest completion percentage of any game, was 65.5 and was averaging a measly 62.3 percent, compared to a 69.9 percent over the last two games. This week he draws a promising matchup against the Falcons who rank 29th in DVOA against the pass. Atlanta has allowed 2,751 passing yards (6th most) and 21 passing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most) to opposing signal callers, while yielding 26.5 DKFP per game, which is good for third most. Prescott should be able to take advantage of the matchup and considering they are underdogs in this one, he should have to toss the pigskin a bit more this week. I like his price a ton and the game environment, plus I think he goes a tad overlooked this week.

As I mentioned above, Amari Cooper $5,400 has helped the Cowboys passing game and has done a solid job with the team thus far. Through his first two games with Dallas, he has seen 18 targets and has come down with 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown, scoring no less than 13.5 DKFP in any of those games. He draws a nice matchup and a favorable game environment. Atlanta is yielding 41.1 DKFP per game, while giving up 13 receiving touchdowns (3rd most), 1,565 receiving yards, and 114 receptions to opposing receivers. He is expected to see one-on-one coverage from Desmond Trufant, who is a pretty good corner, but according to PFF, Cooper has a 12 percent advantage rating in this matchup. This is a spot I am intrigued by this week and especially at this affordable price.

Ezekiel Elliott $8,500 draws a great matchup this week against the Falcons who are giving up the most DKFP per game to running backs. In addition, they have allowed the most receptions, second most receiving yards, and second most receiving touchdowns to the position. Elliott is averaging 5.3 targets per game, putting him in a great situation and with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, he should be able to shred this defense to pieces. This is a scenario where pairing up a running back with his quarterback is firmly in play and even going with a three man stack is not a bad idea.

Secondary Options: Cole Beasley is someone else that can be considered here, especially since the Cowboys are expected to be chasing points and forced to pass more. The matchup is good, and his one-on-one matchup is favorable against Bryan Poole. That said, he is no longer the top option on this offense and is tough to feel all that great about. Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns also have small roles, making this trio tough to predict.

My favorite option: Prescott/Cooper/Elliott
 

Additional Notes

I really like Cam Newton this week. He faces off against the Lions defense who has been below average for pretty much all season. Newton offers a nice floor and tremendous upside. If I stack him, my priority would be with Christian McCaffrey who remains a big part of this passing game, but playing a naked Newton is also a viable option. D.J. Moore, Devin Funchess, and Greg Olsen would be secondary stacking options.

The Giants offense is one that I am very excited about this weekend and one that I will have exposure to. Eli Manning has tossed 300+ yards in two of his last three games and is coming off of a three-touchdown performance. He gets an awful Bucs defense that allows the world to opposing signal callers and rank 30th in DVOA against the pass. Pairing him up with Sterling Shepard or Odell Beckham would be my preferred way to go this week, but this is a tournament only stack for me. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are also in consideration, but more as secondary options in a Giants stack.

Josh Rosen and the Cardinals draw a dream matchup against the Raiders who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. Rosen could be a sneak low-owned quarterback this week, but he does offer a low floor, so tread carefully. Pairing him up with Larry Fitzgerald, who has 10 targets in each of the last two games or David Johnson, who was peppered with nine targets last week, would be the way to go. Christian Kirk would be a secondary option for this stack.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal