ESPN ADP Running backs (RB)
It’s only early June, but it is a great time to pick apart average draft position (ADP). The ADP gives potential draftees an overhead look on when they should pull the trigger during their draft. If Player X continues to go in the early third round, then expect about the same selection range in your league.
In this segment, I will be looking at the top-60 running backs for ESPN. For the most part, I think they have a good feel, but there are just some picks that are averaging out that make me scratch my head.
Down below you will is current ADP for running backs at ESPN. I will be discussing those players who don’t fit very well with their ADP. My disagreement will affect your overhead look in two ways. First, it could demonstrate that a player is going to early or that a player is going to late. Second, the marketplace. You don’t want to spend too much on a player that will produce little results.
Saquon Barkley is a huge talent. I won’t deny that he is a great all-around athlete. However, he is just a rookie, and he is playing with one of the worst offensive lines in football. Eli Manning isn’t much of a help either. Defenses will not be worried that Manning will pick them apart. Instead, the defense will focus on Barkley and make sure he doesn’t blow them up. Barkley is now dealing with a stacked box, below average blocking, and learning the game as a rookie. None of that screams a first-round value pick. Also, don’t forget that this is the same offense that finished 21st or worse in yards and 26th or worse in scoring in the last two seasons.
Jerrick McKinnon at 14 makes me scratch my head. There are a lot of people high on McKinnon because of the Kyle Shannahan offense. I’m not one of them. Yes, Shanny has put great running games together, but it doesn’t mean McKinnon is any better than a third down back.
McKinnon has not done much as a runner. His 3.4 yards per carry in 2016 and 3.8 in 2017 is a testament to that. McKinnon’s seven touchdowns in 474 carries are apparent that he is no goal line back either. McKinnon does catch the ball well. He has 94 receptions over the last two seasons. I would be surprised to see him carry the rock more than 200 times this season, even though he gets paid as he should. McKinnon has never had more than 159 in a season.
I think Mckinnon has solid value as a very late number two and would be comfortable taking him as a number three. ESPN has him at 14, and that’s a borderline number one back. McKinnon will have to drop another eight-spots before I consider pulling the trigger on him. I do like his opportunity. The 49ers only have Matt Breida there.
Lamar Miller’s performance last season was not something anyone wanted, including him. Miller ran for 888 yards on 238 carries (3.7 ypc), his lowest average per carry in his career and third lowest yardage total. Now he faces a ranking of 28 on ESPN. I think this is an overreaction by not only ESPN but the several others who think nearly the same.
First, there are very few teams that have an every-down back. Second, Miller’s competition isn’t of high quality at the moment. Alfred Blue has never been anything better than average, and D’Onta Foreman is coming off an ACL tear. What will be worrisome is the yardage that quarterback Deshaun Watson will take away. Watson is a good running quarterback, and that will chip away from Miller’s overall statistics.
Miller should have better stats in 2018 than he did last season. Look for more yards and more scores, while his receptions should remain relatively the same.
Kenneth Dixon had quite a season. Unfortunately, most of his action was off-the-field. After being suspended twice for PED and substance abuse, he missed the entire season after blowing out his knee. The good news in that mess is that his six-game ban is over.
Dixon’s biggest competition will be Alex Collins whom the Ravens picked up from Seattle. Dixon doesn’t have much of a sample size to make his case to be a sure-fire number one back. 2016 was his rookie season, and he looked strong. Averaging 4.2 yards per carry in his last four games. Dixon is a solid pass-catching option for the Ravens. He caught four or more balls in four games and had one eight-catch contest.
There are some issues with Dixon. That tear in his knee, Collins, and Buck Allen is probably the preferable option on third downs. He is a true wildcard, and his ADP (53) is proving that. However, all this can change if Dixon gets the opportunity to beat out Collins and if he can show his knee is healthy. At this point, Alex Collins (23) ADP, easily could be his by the season start.
|AGV||7 Day||AVG||7 Day|
|1||Le'Veon Bell, Pit||RB||1.6||0||60.7||-0.4||99.9|
|2||Todd Gurley II, LAR||RB||2||0||63||-0.2||99.9|
|3||David Johnson, Ari||RB||4||0||58.2||-0.1||99.8|
|4||Ezekiel Elliott, Dal||RB||4.3||0||61.3||-0.3||99.8|
|5||Alvin Kamara, NO||RB||7.7||0.1||51.9||0||99.9|
|6||Saquon Barkley, NYG||RB||8.3||0||52.2||-0.2||99.2|
|7||Kareem Hunt, KC||RB||10.5||-0.4||48.5||-0.5||99.8|
|8||Leonard Fournette, Jax||RB||11.7||-0.1||48.2||0||99.9|
|9||Melvin Gordon, LAC||RB||15.2||0.4||41.4||0.1||99.8|
|10||Dalvin Cook, Min||RB||16.2||0.4||39.8||0.3||99.7|
|11||LeSean McCoy, Buf||RB||20.3||0.1||36.2||-0.1||99.7|
|12||Christian McCaffrey, Car||RB||23||0.6||32.5||0.2||99.7|
|13||Devonta Freeman, Atl||RB||23.6||0.3||33.7||0||99.6|
|14||Jerick McKinnon, SF||RB||32||0.4||23.7||0||99.1|
|15||Jordan Howard, Chi||RB||33.8||0.2||23.4||0||99.3|
|16||Joe Mixon, Cin||RB||37.6||-0.1||21.2||-0.1||98.9|
|17||Mark Ingram, NO||RB||40||-3.1||22.3||-1.3||98.5|
|18||Jay Ajayi, Phi||RB||45.2||0.4||16.4||-0.1||99|
|19||Derrick Henry, Ten||RB||45.9||-0.9||17.1||-0.1||98.6|
|20||Kenyan Drake, Mia||RB||45.9||-0.1||15.4||-0.1||98.5|
|21||Derrius Guice, Wsh||RB||47.8||0.2||15.5||0.2||96.9|
|22||Rashaad Penny, Sea||RB||47.9||0.2||14.9||0.3||96.7|
|23||Alex Collins, Bal||RB||55.2||0.2||11.7||-0.1||97.8|
|24||Marshawn Lynch, Oak||RB||58.2||0.3||10.1||0||97.4|
|25||Royce Freeman, Den||RB||58.9||0.1||10.5||0||94.5|
|26||Sony Michel, NE||RB||65.4||2||10.4||0.3||94.9|
|27||Ronald Jones II, TB||RB||66.1||0.8||8.9||0.3||93.9|
|28||Lamar Miller, Hou||RB||80.6||1.4||4.9||0.2||96|
|29||Dion Lewis, Ten||RB||82||2.2||4.3||0.2||96|
|30||Tevin Coleman, Atl||RB||91.9||3.1||3.6||0.1||92.5|
|31||Duke Johnson Jr., Cle||RB||93.9||1.9||3||0.3||89.6|
|32||Marlon Mack, Ind||RB||98.1||-1.6||2.9||0||84.9|
|33||Isaiah Crowell, NYJ||RB||99.2||-0.4||2.2||-0.1||84.5|
|34||Tarik Cohen, Chi||RB||104.6||2.9||1.6||0||80.7|
|35||Jamaal Williams, GB||RB||106.6||-0.2||2.3||-0.2||85.1|
|36||Chris Thompson, Wsh||RB||106.9||0.9||1.8||-0.1||81.3|
|37||Nick Chubb, Cle||RB||107.6||-0.8||2.6||-0.2||81.8|
|38||Kerryon Johnson, Det||RB||108.9||3.8||2.3||0.1||77.9|
|39||Rex Burkhead, NE||RB||121.2||1||1.3||-0.1||66.6|
|40||C.J. Anderson, Car||RB||124.6||-2.1||1.8||0||70.2|
|41||Carlos Hyde, Cle||RB||125.1||1.4||1.9||0||66.9|
|42||D'Onta Foreman, Hou||RB||126.3||3||1.2||0||59.8|
|43||Aaron Jones, GB||RB||127.1||3.2||1.3||0||56.9|
|44||James White, NE||RB||129.4||-0.1||1||0||52.6|
|45||Ty Montgomery, GB||RB||134.5||0.8||0||0||28.9|
|46||Theo Riddick, Det||RB||134.7||0.2||1.1||0||41.6|
|47||Bilal Powell, NYJ||RB||135.9||0.3||1.1||0||37.8|
|48||LeGarrette Blount, Det||RB||136.6||-0.2||0||0||37.5|
|49||Latavius Murray, Min||RB||137||0.1||0||0||34.6|
|50||Devontae Booker, Den||RB||137.2||1.7||1.1||1.1||41|
|51||Doug Martin, Oak||RB||139.5||-1||0||0||18|
|52||Frank Gore, Mia||RB||139.6||-0.6||0||0||16.5|
|53||Giovani Bernard, Cin||RB||140.7||3.9||0||0||32.8|
|54||Kenneth Dixon, Bal||RB||141.8||0.4||0||0||19.2|
|55||DeMarco Murray, FA||RB||143.6||-2.6||0||0||18|
|56||Matt Breida, SF||RB||145||-1||0||0||14.7|
|57||Jordan Wilkins, Ind||RB||149.1||20.9||0||0||15.6|
|58||Chris Carson, Sea||RB||170||0||0||0||17.2|
|59||Corey Clement, Phi||RB||170||0||0||0||13.9|
|60||Nyheim Hines, Ind||RB||170||0||0||0||13.2|