DIEHARDS SUNDAY PROP BETS week 12 2022

DIEHARDS - WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING SLATE
Drew Phelps, FootballDiehards.com

SINGLE PROP SEASON RECORD: 186-199
SGP SPECIAL SEASON RECORD: 5-14
 

TEXANS @ DOLPHINS (1:00p ET)

DOLPHINS JEFF WILSON OVER 80.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130)

It is basically a rule every week to take the over on rushing yards for the running back against the Texans. They are dead last in every statistical category when it comes to run defense. Wilson has taken the lead in the Dolphins backfield and Mostert is banged up. Jump on in, the water is fine.

DOLPHINS JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS (-135)

Jaylen should have been over this prop in five straight games, but he missed it by two yards in their last game. We thought he would have been the receptions monster while Hill would be the big play guy but it's been the other way around. Believe it or not, the Texans are 6th best against the wide receiver position but they haven't faced the best duo in the league.

RAVENS @ JAGUARS (1:00p ET)

JAGUARS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE UNDER 69.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Ravens have locked down on defense when it comes to the run game. The addition of Roquan Smith and Tyus Bowser returning from injury have changed everything. They are only allowing 70 yards per game on the ground to the running back position. They shut down D'Onta Foreman to under 25 yards on the ground. The Ravens want to force the Jags to throw the ball.

JAGUARS WR CHRISTIAN KIRK OVER 62.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Kirk has been a bright spot in this offense and while he probably didn't deserve that huge contract, he's tried his best to live up to it. Christian has been over this prop in three of the last four Jaguar games. The Ravens do allow wide receivers 185 yards per game through the air.

BENGALS @ TITANS (1:00p ET)

TITANS TE AUSTIN HOOPER OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

It took a while but Ryan Tannehill has found a reliable target in Hooper. After a slow start, he has been easily over this receiving prop in three of the Titans last four games. The Packers are the best team against the Tight End position but they allow 31 yards per game which is over this small number.

There are a lot of questions around the Bengals offense and who will be available on Sunday. That has caused a lot of props to not be available.

FALCONS @ COMMANDERS (1:00p ET)

FALCONS QB MARCUS MARIOTA UNDER 163.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

I know this seems like such a small number but there are a lot of factors here. First of all, the Falcons don't like to throw the ball, they are a run first team. He has only been over this number in two of the Falcons last eight games. The Commanders defense has improved which has been a huge part of them winning five of their last six games. The last reason is the weather is going to be pretty awful tomorrow in Washington. There will be a lot of work on the ground on Sunday.

COMMANDERS RB ANTONIO GIBSON ALT 75+ YARDS RUSH + RECEIVE YARDS (-130)

It has been interesting to see how Gibson has been used in the offense in comparison to Brian Robinson. He had over 100 total yards against the Texans. The Falcons are in the bottom half of the league against the running back position. I spoke about the weather in this game, it should be miserable which should lead to a lot of running the ball.

COMMANDERS WR TERRY MCLAURIN OVER 61.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The targets have been there for McLaurin since Taylor Heinicke took over as quarterback averaging 8.6 per game over the last 5. He's been over this prop number in three of their last five. The Falcons are fourth worst against the wide receiver position allowing 188 yards per game. It should be a big day for Scary Terry.

BEARS @ JETS (1:00p ET)

JETS RB MICHAEL CARTER OVER 21.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)

Mike White takes over at quarterback this week for Zach Wilson. When he started a few games for the Jets last year, he found a good connection with Michael Carter especially in the screen game. He's been over in two of his last four games. I feel like this game is setup for him to be used a lot with White at the helm.

BRONCOS @ PANTHERS (1:00p ET)

PANTHERS WR D.J. MOORE OVER 46.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-105)

Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback for the Panthers this weekend. While D.J. Moore will be covered by Patrick Surtain, he got burned by Davante Adams last week. Darnold and Moore had a great connection together and I expect Sam to be looking his way a lot in this game. He has been under in three straight but it's a different ball game with Darnold.

BRONCOS TE GREG DULCICH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-125)

Greg has been a consistent target for Russell over the last four games. He has been over this catch total in three of those four. The Panthers allow 46 yards per game to the tight end position which should be get him to the four catches.

BUCCANEERS @ BROWNS (1:00p ET)

BROWNS RB NICK CHUBB OVER 74.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

Tampa Bay is not the defense of their Super Bowl run. They have struggled to stop the run and the Browns have one of the best backs in the league. The Buccaneers are allowing 116 yards per game on the ground. He has been over this prop total in seven of his 10 games played this season.

BUCCANEERS WR CHRIS GODWIN OVER 60.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

I just believe Chris Godwin is Tom Brady's favorite go-to target and that's got huge value. While he hasn't consistently hit this prop, I believe it is a good bet basically every week. He has been over this number in two of his last three games. This week even more because they are coming off of a bye where everyone could get more healthy.

RAIDERS @ SEAHAWKS (4:05p ET)

SEAHAWKS RB KENNETH WALKER OVER 77.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)

This should be a big day for Kenneth against the Raiders. He is also coming off of a bye. Walker has been over this prop number in four of his last six games before the bye. Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne both had field days against this Raiders run defense. We know that the Seahawks want to be a run first team.

SEAHAWKS WR DK METCALF OVER 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)

The Raiders defense is not good and we should exploit it as much as we can. I know he has only been over this number in one of the last five games but that will not deter me. The bye week came at the perfect time for them. They got a chance to get things right in the passing game.

CHARGERS @ CARDINALS (4:05p ET)

CARDINALS QB KYLER MURRAY OVER 27.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

The Chargers are not good against the run. It has been proven week after week. Just look at what Isiah Pacheco, he had a career high last weekend. James Conner is a solid bet as well but I love Kyler getting over this meager number. Prior to Kyler's injury, he had been over this rushing prop in five straight games.

CARDINALS WR DEANDRE HOPKINS OVER 7.5 RECEPTIONS (+115)

I do not understand why this prop is sitting where it is but I'm not going to fight it. Hopkins is and always will be a target monster and you should smash this number especially at plus odds. She has had 12 or more targets in four of his five games played this season. In all four of those games, he hit this prop with eight or more catches.

SAINTS @ 49ERS (4:25p ET)

SAINTS RB ALVIN KAMARA UNDER 49.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)

The 49ers are the number one team in the league at stopping the run. They only allow 81.1 yards per game and only 58 over their last three. Kamara has been under this rushing total in four of his last five games. I have a feeling the Saints will get behind in this game and they'll be throwing a lot more late which should help this prop come through.

49ERS WR BRANDON AIYUK OVER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Brandon broke a streak of five straight games of hitting this prop last week against the Cardinals. That really wasn't his fault, the game got out of control and he wasn't needed in the second half. Christian McCaffrey's addition to the offense has opened things up for the passing game and Aiyuk has been one of the beneficiaries.

RAMS @ CHIEFS (4:25p ET)

CHIEFS WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 55.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

JuJu is returning to the lineup after being out with a concussion. I think of him as a second tight end in this offense cause of the way he plays. He is a possession receiver who thrives over the middle. The Rams are one of the tougher teams against that position. The Chiefs won't need much from him to win this game against a terrible Rams team.