DFS Pivot Plays week 11 2017

By Armando Marsal

Week 11: Pivot Plays
By: Armando Marsal

Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday main slate.

Quarterback

Chalk

Alex Smith $6,700 at New York Giants
I am expecting Tom Brady and Alex Smith to be the most popular quarterbacks this week by a wide margin, and I will have exposure to both. Smith draws a really good matchup against the Giants who are giving up 275.9 passing yards per game and have surrendered a league-high 20 passing touchdowns. They have given up at least three passing touchdowns and 300+ passing yards in four of their last six games, while ranking amongst the league worst in DVOA against the pass. The Chiefs have a healthy implied team total at 28 points and Smith has actually played better on the road this season, averaging 7.2 more fantasy points per game than at home, and throwing 14 of his 18 touchdowns in away games, despite playing just one more game away from Kansas City. Smith can be considered a strong play in all formats and despite the high ownership, he makes sense.

Pivot

Jay Cutler $5,400 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In lineups where I am trying to fade the chalk at the quarterback position, I will likely pivot towards Cutler. He draws a very nice matchup against the Bucs who are fifth worst in DVOA against the pass, allowing 276.8 passing yards per game and 15 passing touchdowns this season. Cutler has attempted at least 37 passes in each of the last two games and has scored 27.4 and 15.4 fantasy points in those contest, which marks for his two highest scores of the season. After throwing just three touchdown passes in his first four games, Cutler has thrown nine touchdowns in his last four, with at least two touchdowns in each of those games. He is trending in the right direction and although he is still very volatile, there is upside here considering the matchup. Keep in mind that Cutler is strictly a tournament play.

Running Backs

Chalk

Rex Burkhead $3,600 at Oakland Raiders
The Burkhead train has picked up steam and he could be one of the more popular running backs this week. He is at a very low price and has scored 15 fantasy points in his last two games. The matchup is also one that favors him as the Raiders have struggled against opposing backs this season, yielding over 100 rushing yards per game and three touchdowns, while also allowing 56 receptions for 468 yards and three touchdowns. Burkhead played in 51 percent of the Patriots snaps last game, but in Week 8 he played in just 31 percent of the snaps. While I can totally see a path to success in this matchup for Burkhead, I am also wary of how Bill Belichick operates which is very concerning due to the unpredictability. This is the type of chalk that I am willing to fade in tournaments, because there is a lot of down side. Dion Lewis and James White are also capable backs and both possess strong pass catching abilities, which cuts into Burkhead’s upside.

Pivot

Doug Martin $4,500 at Miami Dolphins
If you are looking at the game logs, considering Martin might not make total sense. He is averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game for the season and in his last three games he has been unable to eclipse eight fantasy points. However, he has touched the ball at least 19 times in three of his last four games and draws a very nice matchup against a Dolphins defense that has been absolutely torched by running backs in recent games, allowing well over 100 rushing yards per game and six touchdowns in their last five contests. There is obvious risk in rostering Martin due to his lack of production for the majority of the season, but there is also some upside considering the matchup and his low price tag. With most of the people focusing on Burkhead, I like the idea of starting a back who should get close to 20 touches in a plus matchup at a much lower ownership.

Wide Receivers

Chalk

Sterling Shepard $6,300 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Shepard draws a very nice matchup against Steven Nelson who grades out very poorly over at Pro Football Focus and a matchup that Shepard has a 63 percent advantage rating in, which is the highest of any receiver this week. The Chiefs are also third worst in DVOA against opposing WR1. They are giving up over 40 fantasy points per game to wide outs, while yielding 114 receptions for 1,682 yards and a league-high 15 receiving touchdowns for the season. Shepard has received 22 targets in the last two games and erupted for 142 receiving yards last week. He is the Giants number on receiver and the volume should remain consistent for the remainder of the year. The Giants are heavy underdogs in this contest, so they should be chasing points and be forced to pass, which also benefits Shepard. Lastly, he comes in at a reasonable price considering the circumstances. There is definitely a lot to like about Shepard this week, making him one of the more popular receivers on this slate.

Pivot
Amari Cooper $6,000 vs. New England Patriots
Cooper leads the Raiders in targets for the season averaging 8.6 targets per game, but in his last three games, he is averaging 12.7 targets per game. He draws a very good matchup against the Patriots who are third worst in DVOA against number one wide outs. They are also yielding 13.4 receptions and 196.1 receiving yards per game to the position, with a 62 percent catch rate. While Cooper has not played up to expectations this season, there is no denying that he is talented and possesses plenty of upside, like we saw a couple of games ago. He does not offer the floor that Shepard does, but might have an edge as far as ceiling is concerned, which is why in tournaments pivoting to Cooper could pay off.

Tight Ends

Chalk

Travis Kelce $7,300 at New York Giants
Kelce draws the best matchup a tight end can ask for against a Giants defense that is giving up the most fantasy points per game to the position and has allowed at least one touchdown in each game to a tight end this season. He grades out well in this matchup with a 20 percent advantage rating per Pro Football Focus, the highest one of the week for a player at this position. Aside from a high ceiling, Kelce has provided fantasy owners with a nice floor throughout the season, so even at this high price tag, Kelce is a viable option. I will certainly have him in some lineups, but pivoting from him in tournaments is not a terrible idea from a game theory perspective.

Pivot

Evan Engram $6,000 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Engram has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games and continues to be a target monster for the Giants, averaging eight targets per game for the season, but has at nine or more targets in three consecutive games. This is not an ideal matchup for him as the Chiefs have been solid against tight ends, but that was also the case for Engram when he faced the Seahawks and Rams, and in these matchups he managed to find the pay dirt and scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of those games. Considering the game script here, the Giants could be forced to pass a ton as they play catchup, which would benefit Engram as a pass catcher. He should garner some ownership, but nowhere near the amount that Kelce will have and Engram offers just as much upside.

Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal