DFS Hunter Report Week 3 2018

Week 2 treated me much nicer than Week 1 did, cashing me out on both of my $20 entries in the DraftKings NFL $4.6M Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire ($1M to 1st).

My best lineup in Week 2 featured Philip Rivers, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley II, Will Fuller V and Adam Thielen, with other moving parts, to total 172.84; however, my recommendation to stay away from Big Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Fitzpatrick sure backfired. I know, the matchup for Big Ben was ridiculous but I really thought the elbow would be an issue. Ahem.

As I mention every week, I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($7,000) – I’m going to continue to ride the Mahomes-train as long as he’s averaging 5 TD passes a game, but mainly for cash lineups this week; however, I may toss Mahomes into a tournament lineup or two. Mahomes will give DFS owners a solid game, just nothing spectacular. He’s a very safe investment for the dollars spent, considering the Chiefs dynamic offense and excellent play calling. Look for a 20-plus point day.

Other Choices: Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,800)


Value

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. Denver Broncos ($5,400) – You know who’s playing good football right now? Joe Flacco, that’s who. He hasn’t tossed 10 TD passes through two games like Patrick Mahomes or thrown for a gazillion-yard average like Ryan Fitzpatrick, but 5 TD passes to this point isn’t too shabby. Flacco has very quietly averaged almost 23 FPPG so far and I really dig the matchup facing the Broncos defense. He’ll be under owned for sure this week and I love him for both cash and tournament play.

Other Choices: Mitchell Trubisky, CHI @ Arizona Cardinals ($5,500)


Over-Value

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ Kansas City Chiefs ($6,500) – I like Garoppolo to have a decent game, and maybe you use him for a cash lineup, although I really don’t like the price tag for the expectations that most will have facing the Chiefs porous defense. If I’m paying this kind of salary at QB in Week 2, why not go with an expectedly under-owned Drew Brees? DFS owners will be dog piling on Garoppolo for an inflated ownership percentage, which I don’t want in tournament play.

Other Choices: Aaron Rodgers, GB @ Washington Redskins ($7,100); Andy Dalton, CIN @ Carolina Panthers ($5,700)

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Melvin Gordon, LAC @ Los Angeles Rams ($7,400) – I know the usual suggestions here are Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley II, but for the price tag we’re going to get very good production out of Gordon this week. I’m not expecting a bunch of rushing yards facing the Rams defense, so you won’t see 100-plus yards. It’s the receptions and overall combined yards we’ll see. Philip Rivers will dump the ball off to Gordon frequently, as he did in Week 2, using his best weapon as often as possible facing a stout Rams defense.

Other Choices: Christian McCaffery, CAR vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($7,800); Saquon Barkley, NYG @ Houston Texans ($7,600)

Value

Corey Clement, PHI vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4,300) – Opportunity is knocking heavily for Clement and DFS owners. Jay Ajayi is a big question mark for Week 3, plus Darren Sproles isn’t healthy either. Clement should see 20 touches at least, considering his receiving skills out of the backfield. Clement is a great tournament and cash play this week, so feel confident in using him. Don’t be the guy that fades Clement this week.

Other Choices: Kareem Hunt, KC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,000); Lamar Miller, HOU vs. New York Giants ($5,000); Dion Lewis, TEN @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)


Over-Value

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,100) – I’m assuming Cook will find a way to get on the field this week, although there are major concerns about how injured he really is. I’m a bit conservative when it comes to rostering players that are fighting injury, especially RBs with leg injuries, QBs with arm injuries, etc. It backfires on me sometimes, as in Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2, but Cook’s injury status is much more concerning to me. I’m just not spending $7.1K on Cook, even with the lovely matchup facing the Bills.

Other Choices: Giovani Bernard, CIN @ Carolina Panthers ($5,900); Jay Ajayi, PHI vs. Indianapolis Colts ($5,700)

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Michael Thomas, NO @ Atlanta Falcons ($8,900) – If you’re spending up at WR then make sure you look no further than Thomas. Dude has been a wonder so far, with 28 receptions in two games. Wow. What’s even more shocking is Thomas’ catch rate, which is sitting at a whopping 93%. Yeah, it’s only been two games but 28 catches out of 30 targets? Thomas won’t keep up this pace, we all know that. Still, Drew Brees will be targeting his favorite receiver frequently once again in a game that Vegas features a line of 53 (as of this writing).

Other Choices: Adam Thielen, MIN vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,800); Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,700)

Value

Will Fuller, V, HOU vs. New York Giants ($5,900) – This will be the last time you’ll see Fuller below the $6K mark. Of course, I’m being somewhat bold and predicting Fuller will stay relatively injury-free from here on out. I know, what am I thinking? Ha. I love this guy a bunch this week, and for the rest of the season assuming his price tag doesn’t inflate too quickly. Fuller is a solid choice for just about any lineup.

Other Choices: Keenan Cole, JAC vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,600); Devin Funchess, CAR vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,000), Sammy Watkins, KC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,100); DeDe Westbrook, JAC vs. Tennessee Titans ($4,600); D.J. Moore, CAR vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($3,800); Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. New Orleans Saints ($3,700)


Over-Value

Kenny Stills, MIA vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,800) – Over the years, Stills has been much too inconsistent in his production from week-to-week. I can’t bring myself to put him into my lineup at $5.8K. He could work out for you, maybe a nice contrarian-play in tournament lineups, but I’m fading Stills. You can do better. Plus, the Raiders aren’t just going to roll over, with their defense a bit underrated.

Other Choices: Tyreek Hill, KC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($8,500)

TIGHT END

Top Level

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. Indianapolis Colts ($6,800)

Travis Kelce, KC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,700)


Value

George Kittle, SF @ Kansas City ($4,500)

Jared Cook, OAK @ Miami Dolphins ($4,000)

Will Dissly, SEA vs. Dallas Cowboys ($3,300)

Ben Watson, NO @ Atlanta Falcons ($3,100)

Over-Value

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. Green Bay Packers ($5,400)


Good luck in Week 3! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy