Crystal Ball Week 2 2018

Welcome aboard to another season of the Crystal Ball article! For those subscribers who haven’t read this in the past, the premise of the article is simple – each Wednesday we will take a quick look at the most pressing topics stemming from the prior week, and also preview the upcoming contests as well. Though this isn’t meant as a waiver wire article per se, I will also give my thoughts on some of the most added players, providing my thoughts on how much owners should spend to acquire them and what format they would be best suited for.

As I preface all of my articles, please understand that every league is different and unique. Size, structure, scoring formats and the competency of owners involved makes each one a different, and separate, entity. Though I may recommend spending five to ten percent of your yearly FAAB to acquire a particular player, if you know that you participate in a very aggressive league with managers who overspend on players, adjust accordingly. Whenever possible I’ll make sure to mention targets in deeper formats, as the majority of Football Diehards subscribers participate in very competitive groups.

The Crystal Ball topics stem from questions that I receive both on Twitter (@Roto_Wizard) throughout Monday and Tuesday morning, and from my Tuesday night Q&A sessions at 8 PM EST. Since the majority of waiver wires run on Tuesdays, make sure that you submit questions to me ahead of time, as this article will occasionally be released after initial runs have completed. With that said, lets hop in to Week 1!

Q:

My draft happened about a month ago, and I selected Le’Veon Bell second overall behind Todd Gurley. How worried should I be that he doesn’t report until Week 10? I didn’t handcuff him with James Conner, and I’m freaking out!

A:

And you rightfully should be. Addressing the first question, I don’t believe that Bell will sit on the sidelines and pout until Week 10 that he doesn’t have a new contract offer. To be frank, I was surprised that he even missed Week 1, as all accounts had him reporting to the team to collect his game check the day prior. Public opinion of Bell in the locker room took a serious turn South after he failed to show, and most striking were the comments made by his offensive lineman. I’ve read plenty that players shouldn’t comment on each other’s contract situations, but keep in mind these were the same players that stuck behind him through last year’s holdout and multiple substance abuse suspensions. Enough is enough. In Bell’s absence Conner played extremely well, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, coupled with five receptions for 57 yards. The fact that Conner was able to enjoy that level of success bodes poorly for Bell, as his leverage of being the best running back in the league now is murky. Are his lofty statistics mainly on account of his talent? Or the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line and game plan? The answer is likely a little of both, but with Bell losing nearly $1 million each week he holds out, it makes little sense for him to sit idly while his job is lost. On his eventual return owners should be patient for a week or two as he returns to game shape, and also will need to understand that his massive workload will be reduced due to Conner’s talent. As a side note, I always have been a strong supporter of handcuffing top 10 running backs with their immediate replacements – this would be a prime example why.

Q:

I drafted Matthew Stafford as my starting QB this year in a 12-team league. He was horrible against the New York Jets Week 1. How soon do I wait to cut him in favor of other options?

A:

Patience, young padawan. Patience. Stafford certainly had a rough start to the season, tossing four interceptions in the midst of running for his life every snap. The Lions offensive line did him absolutely no favors, allowing the Jets to generate continued pressure on him each and every passing play. There were several notable drops by his receiving core as well, and the running game found no room to contribute a counter-threat. All of those elements combined led to the poor performance, rather than solely Stafford. Things will improve, especially if the team is able to give Kerryon Johnson more rushing attempts for a balanced approach. The Lions have one of the best 1-2-3 combinations at wide receiver in the league with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, and historically Stafford has finished as a top-10 option at the position. The Lions were counting on improved play from their offensive front, and that is the factor that has me the most concerned. If they continue to allow pressure on Stafford each passing attempt it will greatly limit their play calling options, and significantly hurt the value of down field threats like Marvin Jones. I’m hopeful for a rebound, and wouldn’t recommend trading him or flat out dropping him in all but the shallowest of formats.

Q:

As a Royce Freeman owner, should I be worried about how many touches the Denver Broncos gave to Phillip Lindsay in Week 1? Is this a sign of things to come moving forward?

A:

Though I don’t own Freeman in any of my leagues, I did have him targeted as the second-best rookie running back entering the year (after the injury to Derrius Guice). Lindsay performed extremely well in training camp and throughout the preseason to earn a number of snaps each week, but I don’t think his 17 touches is a repeatable figure. The clear-cut number two option ahead of Devontae Booker, Lindsay’s role reminds me of a Darren Sproles or Tevin Coleman type. Between five or seven rushing attempts each week and two to three receptions. I haven’t heard anything from the Broncos regarding a changing of the guard with Lindsay over Freeman, and wouldn’t anticipate that happening either, given Lindsay’s much smaller frame (5’8, 190 lbs.). His presence will be more to spell Freeman every few series rather than supplanting him entirely.

Q:

What the heck happened to Chris Hogan? I drafted him as my WR2 and he had ONE reception for 11 yards on just five targets!!

A:

Hogan was recommended as a breakout candidate in nearly every publication this preseason, as Julian Edelman’s suspension and the trade of Brandin Cooks opened up plenty of targets going his way. So, what happened? Bill Belichick happened. Outside of Rob Gronkowski and Edelman, I would NEVER recommend targeting a player on the New England Patriots. Ever. Each week the game plan and flow will dictate who is the featured option, and the unpredictability is what makes this franchise so successful, yet absolutely maddening for Fantasy purposes. Not only did Hogan only catch one reception, but both Philip Dorsett and James White saw more targets – and that was against a weak secondary in Houston. Next week the Patriots take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, perhaps the best defense in all of football. Similar to Stafford above, I’d preach patience to all Hogan owners, as the schedule becomes much more favorable after Week 2. Hogan has never been a volume-based receiver (his career high in receptions was 41 back in 2014 with the Buffalo Bills). Statistically, I still expect him to make a major leap forward from last season, and projected him to finish with around 65 receptions for 900 yards and six or seven touchdowns.

Q:

Amari Cooper. What the F.

A:

Ha. Relax folks! There were a number of disappointments from top receiving options this past week, Cooper included. Please don’t forget that the St.Louis Rams secondary is elite, and head coach Jon Gruden has continued to back Cooper’s talent and confirm that he is an integral part of the offense. Outside of Jared Cook, Cooper is the team’s sole receiving threat at the moment (the walking corpse of Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts and Brandon LaFell aren’t scaring away anyone). This is a team that will need to throw the ball as a result of playing from behind each week. Cooper will have his fair share of duds throughout the course of the season, but expect him to post some breakout performances as well. This will be a case of the “squeaky wheel being greased”. This season mark’s Cooper’s final year of his rookie contract, and expect him to perform at a much higher level than what we have seen. Have hope for a turnaround here, the talent is real.

Q:

I’m in a 16-team league and am looking for an upside wide receiver play – anyone you are willing to recommend for me?

A:

In deeper formats I’ve been keeping my eye on Dante Pettis, a rookie second-round receiver selected by the San Francisco 49ers. The loss of Jerrick McKinnon subsequent lack of signings at running back confirms that the team has all the confidence in the world with Jimmy Garoppolo’s arm carrying them in 2018. Pettis learned all three receiver spots in the preseason and training camp, and considering that the 49ers traded several picks to acquire him and move up in the draft, one has to assume that they had a plan for him upon his selection. Marquise Goodwin sustained a bruised thigh early in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings, allowing Pettis to see more snaps than anticipated. He responded by catching two of his five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown against arguably the league’s best secondary. In shallower formats I have Pettis more as a “flagged” player to keep an eye on, but I’m willing to add him for a five to ten percent FAAB bid in deeper formats.

Q:

With Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker both going down in Week 1, which of their backups holds more immediate value? And are there any other TEs to keep an eye on?

A:

Both Olsen and Walker were inside my top-10 at the tight end position entering this season, and their losses are significant blows to each team. In the case of Olsen, the Carolina Panthers haven’t placed him on IR yet, though it is a distinct possibility that he will be a candidate to return at the very end of the season. He is considered “month to month”, but is droppable in all but the deepest of leagues. In his stead Ian Thomas will take the field, a fourth-round rookie out of Indiana. Head coach Ron Rivera did state that Thomas was “pretty well prepared” to replace Olsen, but trusting a rookie on a run-first team isn’t a particularly intriguing choice. Delanie Walker’s status is clearer – he will miss the remainder of 2018 with ligament damage and a dislocated ankle. Jonnu Smith will take over his role. A very athletic second-year player out of Florida International, Smith stood out in 2017 mainly on special teams, catching just 18 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in limited action. Given that he is a more experienced player, I would prefer to roster Smith than Thomas. That said, I trust Cam Newton more than Marcus Mariota. I can’t imagine recommending either player as a waiver wire addition unless it is a Hail Mary scenario.

In terms of other tight ends to keep an eye on, there are two. Hayden Hurst for the Baltimore Ravens really caught my eye when I was preparing for the draft this season, and the Ravens though highly enough of him to draft him 25th overall with their first-round pick. He is still in the process of recovering from foot surgery and is doubtful for Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but upon his return he steps into a very favorable situation in a pass-first offense with a quarterback who loves utilizing the position.


For a longer-term solution, don’t forget about Hunter Henry. Rather than placing him on season-ending IR the San Diego Chargers chose to move him to the reserve/PUP list, leaving open the possibility of him returning in late November or early December. That may seem far off at the moment, but keep in mind how fast the season moves by. Henry was really starting to come into his own last season as a security blanket for Philip Rivers, and was pegged by many as a top-5 player at the position prior to tearing his ACL. As dart-throw that will cost you nothing more than an IR/bench slot, his upside remains.