The Facts: Brady will throw for right around the same passing yards this year in Tampa Bay as he threw for last year in New England, at least if the betting odds are in the right range. The odds at Caesars Sportsbook have Brady’s passing yards over/under at 4,099.5, and he’s at equal -110 odds to go over or under.

Diehards Line: Last season in New England, Brady finished with 4,057 passing yards. That was his fewest in a 16-game season since 2010. The Vegas over/under for Brady is significantly less than the yardage Jameis Winston gained in Tampa Bay last year. Winston passed for 5,109 passing yards last season. But the Buccaneers hope that Brady won’t throw as many interceptions as Winston, meaning they won’t have to throw when they’re trailing as much as they did last year.