The Facts: Peyton Manning knows he’s not going to own the career passing yards record for long. Manning said last month that he expects Brees to break his career records, and it’s a matter of when and not if. So how soon will that happen? It should be around Week 6 of this season that Brees will break Manning’s record for career passing yards.

Diehards Line: As PFT notes, Manning’s all-time record is 71,940 yards. Brees has 70,445 yards. That’s a difference of 1,495 yards, so if Brees averages about 270 yards a game this year like he did last year, he’ll break the record in Week 6. Brees should break the career record for completions even sooner: Brees has completed 6,222 passes in his career, while Brett Favre owns the record at 6,300. Brees is 78 completions away, which at last year’s pace of about 24 completions a game would get Brees the record in Week Four. Brees is 875 attempts away from Favre’s record, so it will probably be 2019 before he can break that record. Also: In the final of the big career passing records, Brees and Tom Brady are exactly tied: They’re both at 488 career touchdown passes, 51 away from Manning’s career record of 539.