S Fantasy Football DFS Three and out 2015 week 12
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Three And Out
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris

I'm In

HOU QB Brian Hoyer
Two words: Saints. Price. ... That combination is a big reason Hoyer is my most owned QB in DFS this week. The Saints are allowing the highest opponents' passer rating in NFL history this year (116.5). They have yielded 28 TD passes with only four interceptions. Two weeks ago, before the Saints' bye, they allowed Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins to have a perfect passer rating with four scoring strikes and zero interceptions. The Saints have since fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and replaced him with Dennis Allen. But their problems clearly run deeper than just one coaching fix. If that doesn't make Hoyer appealing enough, how about the price? $7,100 on FanDuel; $5,000 on DraftKings. I'm sold.

HOU WR DeAndre Hopkins
See all of the above -- except price ($9,400 on FanDuel; $9,100 on DraftKings). But does that matter? Hopkins has 76 receptions for 1,045 yards. He's on pace to finish the season with a career-high 121 catches, 1,672 yards and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Saints best cover corner, Delvin Breaux hasn't shown up in the biggest matchups this year (vs. T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham). In addition, Hopkins' skill at outmuscling defensive backs and leaping ability have boosted quarterbacks' confidence at lobbing the football up to him in any situation. And while it doesn't seem to matter who Hopkins' trigger man is, Hoyer's return can't hurt.

AZ WR Larry Fitzgerald Fitzgerald owned the Niners in Week 3, pulling in nine passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. That performance made Fitz the first of five wideouts to top 100 receiving yards against the 49ers this season. Expect more of the same this week -- and at a reasonable price point ($7,400 on FanDuel; $7,400 on DraftKings).

I'm Out

STL RB Todd Gurley
According to ESPN.com, in an effort to get Todd Gurley back on track after he averaged 3.28 yards per carry the past three games, the Rams have hinted at new wrinkles for the running game in practice this week. And I'll concede that Gurley is facing a Cincinnati run defense that has struggled in recent weeks. Indeed, the Bengals are 27th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.54) but the Bengals have allowed only three rushing touchdowns, which could put Gurley's streak of five straight games with a touchdown in jeopardy. And as Profootballfocus.com pointed out, while Gurley has scored on all three of his carries from the opponent's 1-yard line, he has zero additional attempts within 5 yards of the goal line. His three other touchdowns were from 6, 16 and 71 yards out. Barring more offensive efficiency in St. Louis, PFF believes Gurley is going to struggle for touchdowns down the stretch. ... Combine all that with Gurley's price tag ($8,800 in FanDuel and $7,500 in DraftKings), and I'm looking elsewhere this week.

A few others I have in multiple lineups this week:
  • CLE TE Gary Barnidge (Josh McCown + Baltimore Defense? Yes please.)
  • BAL RB Buck Allen (going up against Cleveland's run defense and a reasonable price tag make him worthwhile though I have concerns about overall offensive effectiveness and potential game-flow)
  • SEA RB Thomas Rawls (because he's Thomas Rawls)
  • PIT WR Martavis Bryant (I expect the Seahawks to focus on shutting down Antonio Bryant)
  • NYJ WR Eric Decker (has become a weekly staple due to production vs. price)
  • WAS WR Jamison Crowder (still getting more snaps and running more routes than DeSean Jackson and cheaper than D-Jax and Garcon).