Vegas vs Fantasy Week 5 2018

By Armando Marsal

It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines, paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Steelers vs. Falcons 56.5 58 +1.5
Chargers vs. Raiders 52 52.5 +0.5

Steelers and Falcons have the highest over/under on the slate by a decent amount and 66 percent of the bets are on the over at this time. Atlanta has a 27.5 implied team total, while Pittsburgh has a 30.5 implied team total. The Steelers are three point favorites, but the Falcons are receiving 51 percent of the bets against the spread. It is not surprising that this contest is expected to produce a ton of points as neither of these defenses have played all that great this season. In fact, Pittsburgh is 19th in defense DVOA, while Atlanta ranks 30th in that department. This is a contest that you certainly want exposure to and all of the usual suspects are firmly in play. Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are both very strong plays this week. Pass catchers from both teams are also in great spots too, this includes Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, Antonino Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Vance McDonald. James Conner is in a great spot against the arguably the worst defense against pass catching backs, making him a priority option in this contest. Other players that you should consider prioritizing from this game are Julio Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Possible low-owned players from this contest that you can consider in tournaments are Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. While they offer low floors, they are both in a good game environment and offer some upside. Neither defenses should be considered. This game should be high-scoring and it is expected to stay close, so there should be plenty of fantasy goodness here. Do not overthink it and make sure to have exposure.

The Chargers and Raiders game has the second highest over/under of the slate and this contest is currently receiving 67 percent of the bets on the over. Oakland has a 23.75 implied team total, while Los Angeles has a 28.75 implied team total. The Chargers are five point favorites, but the Raiders are receiving 53 percent of the bets against the spread. A couple of things to note here, the Chargers team total has dropped nearly a point and the Raiders implied team total has jumped nearly a point. This has also cut the spread by two points, as the Chargers were seven point favorites when the lines came out. Although this movement is suggesting that we should looking a bit more into the Raiders here, I am still very bullish on the Chargers offense. Melvin Gordon has to be considered one of the better plays this week, against a woeful Oakland defense. His usage on this offense is absurdly high, so he should be able to torch this unit and have a big outing. Philip Rivers to Keenan Allen should also be in a good position to be productive in this contest. This duo should take advantage of the 24th ranked DVOA pass defense. Austin Ekeler is also interesting as a value option or a flex play in season-long leagues. He does not play a ton of snaps, but his usage is high when he is on the field. On the Oakland side of things, Derek Carr is coming off of a big game and faces a team he is familiar with. The Chargers rank 18th in DVOA against the pass, not playing as good as they did last season, but it is still a unit I respect. While Carr is in a positive potential game environment and he is in play, I am not overly excited about him this week. Two to other players on this offense that have my attention are Jordy Nelson and Jared Cook. I will likely be mixing them in my DFS lineups this week, in rosters that I have Chargers players in. This is another contest where none of the defenses are appealing to me.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Game Open O/U Live O/U Move
Bills vs. Titans 39.5 39.5 0

The Titans and Bills game has the lowest over/under this week and 52 percent of the bets are on the under. Tennessee has a 22.5 implied team total, while Buffalo has a 17 implied team total. The Titans are 5.5 point favorites and are receiving 66 percent of the bets against the spread. This is a game I have little interest in, but there are some players I am considering. Dion Lewis is in a good spot against a suspect Bills run defense. When Marcus Mariota has started this season, Lewis has been peppered with 17 targets and has caught 14 of them. In those games, he also out snapped Henry nearly 3-to-1 each time. The game script may not play into his favor, but this offense clearly flows better with him on the field. Corey Davis is also an interesting option as he is emerging as a high-volume with plenty of upside. Taywan Taylor can be considered here too, although the likelihood of a lot of volume is not that high this week. The Titans defense can be considered a strong streaming option and also a DFS play, as the Bills offense is just flat out bad. With that in mind, nothing from Buffalo’s side for me this week.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Teams Spread
Rams -7.5
Seahawks +7.5

The Rams are the biggest favorites this week despite being on the road and they are currently receiving 74 percent of the bets against the spread. Seattle has a 21.25 implied team total, while Los Angeles has a 28.75 implied team total. It is also worth noting that this contest has a healthy 50 point over/under. Both teams are interesting here, more so the Rams. We can get it started with Todd Gurley who is a must play every week in season-long leagues and is always in consideration in DFS regardless of his price. His usage is just through the roof, while he is also very efficient. The passing game for the Rams is also great, led by Jared Goff who is emerging as one the league’s better quarterbacks. His pass catchers are also in play this week, including Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks. Kupp remains my top option here, as he and Goff have a strong connection and Kupp is a very reliable receiver. This Seahawks defense is not what it once was and this Rams offense can put up points against anyone.

There is no need to overthink it here, so just plug them in. From Seattle, Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are just way too cheap over at DraftKings. The matchup may not be ideal for them, but the potential game script is, as they are expected to chase points. Tyler Lockett is also interesting as he has been efficient this season.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal